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Powerful Times: Rising to the Challenge of Our Uncertain World

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Few times does a book have such a powerful effect on me. Not coincidentally is this 2005 book by Wharton School Publishing titled "Powerful Times". The book is written by the CEO of the Global Business Network, a group self-described as a "future-oriented network and consulting firm".

Any assumptions you come to the book with will be strongly challenged, not to convince you to steer left or right, but rather to open up your mind to one clear and indisputable truth: these are changing times, and we might as well realize that, in order to be able to deal with the world we are embarked on and the world of the coming decade.

Kelly presents the reader with a deep yet easy-to-follow set of trends, most of which are represented by opposite forces pulling in different directions. Chances are you may identify yourself with one of the forces in most of the trends, yet Kelly's effectiveness lies in his ability to present all forces in a very balanced way, which allows you to open yourself to what others may be thinking.

Once all the trends have been covered, he goes into what he considers to be the three most likely scenarios to take place in the coming decade, depending on the outcome of two basic yet fundamental crossroads we are in the process of going through. He emphasizes that no single scenario should be expected to prevail in a unique way, but rather to dominate the scene, "sprinkled" with elements from the other scenarios.

Finally, he provides the reader with an extensive framework for him to assess his place and that of his company in this new world we're entering. This framework, along with a handful of additional tools and resources, is provided through the book's web site at www.PowerfulTimes.net.

I cannot do less but give the book five shining stars for shedding a brilliant light on some of today's impossibly contradictory issues, and giving us readers a tool with which to steer through the troubled waters of the coming decade.

More than 500 years ago, Niccolo Machiavelli, Florence's Second Chancellor, was asked to investigate why Pandolfo Petrucci, the Lord of nearby Siena, was so inconsistent in his behavior. Machiavelli was impressed by his explanation.

"Wishing to make as few mistakes as possible, I conduct my government day by day and arrange my affairs hour by hour, because the times are more powerful than our brains."

His response resonates today. The world changes at what seems to be an unprecedented rate. Each shift and rift creates profound anxiety and deep confusion. Yet the worlds systems, be they financial, technological, social, cultural or political, continue to evolve and develop at an accelerating pace.

Eamonn Kelly, the CEO of the strategy consultancy Global Business Network, offers seven "dynamic tensions that he believes will reshape human life in the coming decades. They are:
* Prosperity and Decline
* Power and Vulnerability
* Intangible and Physical
* Clarity and Craziness
* Acceleration and Pushback
* People and Planet
* Secular and Sacred.

The "either/or" thinking that worked in the past, he postulates, is no longer effective. The ability to think in terms of "both/and" will be valuable to discerning in the future what is occurring around us.

"The test of a first-rate intelligence," wrote F. Scott Fitzgerald in words that could not ring truer today "is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function."

Many of us fail the first part. We cannot hold two opposing ideas. If Kelly's thesis is correct, this is an ability we will have to quickly acquire if we are to make sense of an increasingly complex and confusing world.

The world has always been uncertain. But, says Eamonn Kelly, not like this.

Technological, financial, social, economic, cultural, and political systems are accelerating towards ever-greater complexity and interdependence. The changes we see are profoundly paradoxical: as humans, we seek patterns, but our simplifications obscure more than they clarify, and our "either/or" mindsets risk catastrophe. No single actor - no person, institution, ideology, marketplace, religion, region, or nation - is powerful enough to control the future. Meanwhile, deep, fundamental dynamics may be unraveling much of what we've taken for granted since the Enlightenment dawned some 400 years ago.

In his new book, Kelly aims to help leaders make sense of this extraordinary moment in history and safely navigate its shoals. That's no small goal. But Kelly brings a powerful tool to bear: the scenario planning approach GBN has used to help hundreds of companies and governments manage the future.

Scenarios organize perceptions about the future into stories that are easy to understand and work with. They make it easier to consider alternate futures and reflect diverse perspectives. By recognizing the potential for sharp discontinuities, they encourage decision makers to consider the unthinkable - invaluable in an era when the unthinkable is occurring with frightening regularity.

To frame his scenarios, Kelly identifies seven "dynamic tensions": paradoxical forces he sees reshaping the world. For instance, the secular worldview continues to spread, largely driven by "rational" business practices. But, of course, fundamentalism is also resurging - from the madrasahs of Pakistan to the megachurches of Texas and California. Progress in computing, biotech, and nanotech is accelerating: these fields are becoming "mutually catalytic" and promising to transform human beings at the most fundamental levels. Meanwhile, the "pushback" grows, creating surprising alliances. (Will Bill Joy's views on nanotech converge with George Bush's views on stem cell research?)

From a geopolitical standpoint, while the U.S. is well-positioned to retain military dominance, it faces frightening new vulnerabilities, both perceived and real. Meanwhile, writes Kelly, overall global prosperity appears to be widening. But 21 countries lost ground in the 1990s - and, even in the developed world, millions feel more vulnerable than they have in generations.

Some of Kelly's dynamic tensions are less familiar, but also vitally important. For example, while value will continue to migrate towards the intangible - services, experiences, relationships - improving physical infrastructure will take on ever-greater urgency. The world is growing more transparent, thanks to a deepening web of computers, networks, sensors, and surveillance systems. However, "conspiracy theories and falsehoods will travel the world instantaneously," and the technologies of transparency will also promote more sophisticated theft and fraud.

Meanwhile, beneath it all, arguably the greatest dynamic tension of all: the troubled relationship between humans and their planet - a relationship complicated by massive migrations, demographic shifts, and the intertwined issues of energy and climate.

For some, successfully navigating these tensions may seem unlikely, if not impossible. However, Kelly's reasonably optimistic. He sees especially significant progress in two key areas: "how we relate - the realm of governance - and how we create - the realm of innovation."
Top-down, "Taylorist" organizations are being supplanted (or at least supplemented) by structures that are more fluid, self-organizing, decentralized, and collaborative. These new structures may be capable of handling change with far greater suppleness and resiliency. In Kelly's view, the move from organizational "citadels" to "webs" - while not inexorable - is currently moving more rapidly than many decision makers recognize.

Notwithstanding the Bush administration's unilateralist instincts, Kelly also envisions the gradual emergence of de facto "global governance." Not sinister black helicopters or overweening centralized bureaucracies, but the organic result of "experimentation across a diverse range of processes, approaches, policies, actions, and actors that are overlapping and interlocking in a complex and evolving system." That's important progress, believes Kelly. But "piecemeal" global governance won't self-optimize: to tackle and avoid systemic crises, leaders will need to work together far more consciously and proactively.

Down at "street level," Kelly uncovers some surprising innovations in local governance. In British Columbia, 160 randomly selected citizens have recommended important changes in the province's electoral processes. In Zeguo, China, the local Communist Party secretary offered detailed briefings about several proposed municipal projects to 257 citizens, then polled them on which projects should proceed. In Brazil, Guatemala, and Mexico, enlightened local governments are experimenting with new ways to involve citizens year-round, not just on election day.

Meanwhile, notes Kelly, we'll increasingly look beyond large Western corporations and institutions for tomorrow's most important innovations: those that improve sustainability, extend learning, and address the unmet needs of 4 billion people. Many of them will come from "places finding their power... those parts of the world that are ready to `come of age' as creators, to be exporters as well as importers of breakthroughs."
Kelly scenarios posit major shifts in economic power; even New American Century envisions China achieving unprecedented success, albeit by Western rules. In fact, the emergence of new regions is a theme that recurs repeatedly throughout Powerful Times. Observes Kelly: "Some of our most basic assumptions about the rules of the global economic game will increasingly come under attack in the coming decade."

There are so many changes and forces at work today in society, and it's hard to see where they might lead. And for everyone who paints a rosy picture about something like nanotechnology, there's someone else who thinks the very same thing foretells the doom of the human race. Eamonn Kelly does a very nice job in looking at both sides in the book Powerful Times - Rising To The Challenge Of Our Uncertain World.

Contents:
Section 1 - What's Happening? - Predicting the Present: History Unleashed; Clarity and Craziness; Secular and Sacred; Power and Vulnerability; Technology Acceleration and Pushback; Intangible and Physical Economies; People and Planet
Section 2 - What If? - Changing for the Challenges Ahead: Governance; Innovation
Section 3 - What's Next? - Scenarios for the Next Decade: Three Snapshots of the Future
Section 4 - So What? - Acting in an Era of Transformation: Creating Our New Future
Endnotes; Afterword: Using This Book in Your Life and Work

This is one of those books that forces you to examine both sides of the coin... your position and the flip side. Section 1 is built on contrasts. For instance, In Secular and Sacred, Kelly looks at how the resurgence of religion and spirituality in society has caused people to examine what's really important to them. On the other hand, it's also deeply divided countries and cultures as radical fundamentalism is used to drive followers and forcibly export beliefs. Depending on which side you stand, you'll easily identify with part of the chapter. While tempting to just write off the other half as "he's wrong", the value lies in letting those alternative views moderate your stance and open up your field of vision. Same with the chapter on economies. While it's important to have a market-driven economy that generally benefits society as a whole, those gains can often come at the cost of maintaining a "low wage economy" in developing countries. As a result, the gap between the haves and have nots continues to increase, trapping ever-increasing parts of the population in a poverty cycle that is hard to break. While there are no "single right answers" any more, Kelly lays out a number of alternate outcomes that might occur given the current trends that are in place. It's impossible to tell just what outcome might win out, but it's helpful to start thinking beyond the "here and now" to see how our actions might determine our future.

An enjoyable read while also provoking thought and self-examination, both personally and as a corporate whole...

I loved this book. Kelly's work is an eloquent and thoughtful analysis of the `dynamic tensions' that are shaping our world. Instead of a simplification of the future, this book offers a framework that reveals the complex dualities in evolving risks and opportunitities on a global scale. It really broadened my perspective on the world and changed the way that I think about my future-and more importantly our future. This book has already sparked many intriguing conversations with colleagues and friends! Highly recommended.

Powerful Times is an examination of what the author presents as seven powerful dynamic tensions that will fundamentally reshape human life. What are these seven tensions? Some we are already seeing regularly in the news as the conflicts between the secular and the sacred. Others are also obvious like the tension between clarity and craziness. Still others become fascinating in the way the author develops them; like power and vulnerability, technology acceleration and pushback, intangible and physical economics, prosperity and decline, and people and planet. This is an in-depth exploration of the challenges and changes of governance and innovation. One of the more interesting ideas presented here are what the author sees as the three different scenarios for potential world orders that might evolve as a result of these tensions. This is a bold look at the forces molding our world as we know it and how they will change that world in the near future. Powerful Times is an interesting read and recommended to business and civic leaders at all levels.

The prestigious Wharton School publishes this fascinating and thought-provoking book by Eamonn Kelly, CEO of Global Business Network (GBN). In the first part of his book, Kelly illuminates the frightening and horrendous dangers facing our changing and interdependent world today. The consequences of the looming global dilemmas will be experienced everywhere. He then challenges us to think proactively, to see the 'big picture,' and to take responsibility for your own destiny.

As a futurist and visionary, he uses scenarios to move us beyond formulaic and simplistic thinking. He encourages us to be willing to accept and address the challenges and to develop global empathy.

Copious endnotes support each chapter, and, in his afterword, the author poses a series of questions which will help the reader reflect on the action he might take on a personal and/or organizational level.

Powerful times outlines the many paradoxes which co-exist in an increasing complex world such as: Clarity and craziness; Secular and sacred; Power and vulnerability; Technology acceleration and pushback; Intangible and pysical economies; Prosperity and decline; and People and planet

By a better understanding of each paradox we can position ourselves to better adapt, potentially profit, and reduce risks from global trends.

The second part of the book deals with a variety of potential scenarios ( i.e possible outcomes for the future) which could arise as the world evolves; The various scenarios are labeled: New American Century; Patchwork Powers; and Emergence. The most likely future reality is some combination of the scenarios.

Overall the contents of the book provide a framework for thinking about the future and helps the reader better understand some of the more complex implications.

Author Eamonn Kelly, CEO and President of Global Business Network, a consulting firm focused on the future, has an ambitious agenda to cover in his fascinating, thought-provoking and eminently readable book about global transformation. He focuses on an intriguing line of thought he calls "both/and" thinking, i.e., thinking in shades of gray, and why he recommends that executives who regularly struggle with complexity consider ways to accommodate divergent viewpoints in their decisions. As a counterexample, he cites the glib political stories claiming that conservatives are liars and liberals are traitors, which he rightly assesses as a lackadaisical substitute for critical thinking.

On a broader plain, with contradictory forces co-existing with each other in our world today, the author has come to recognize a disconnect between the complexity and paradoxes in the world, and our tendency to default to "either/or" thinking like those political writers. Through reams of data, he is able to identify seven matching pairs of forces that try to make sense of these tensions - prosperity and decline; power and vulnerability; intangible and physical; clarity and craziness; acceleration and pushback; people and planet; secular and sacred.

Kelly explores these tensions in three scenarios. The first is the "New American Century," which assumes our nation will achieve unparalleled leadership and expand our scope of influence so that the entire world will abide by our core values and play by our rules. In charting the continued growth and influence of American-style methods for conducting business, he concludes that the prevalence of Western business models has not ensured that Americans continue to enjoy the high living standards to which they've grown accustomed. China and India offer substantial competition, but they compete in the global marketplace by playing under rules established by US companies.

The second scenario is called "Patchwork Powers", in which geopolitical and economic power is distributed among many different international bodies, regions and nation-states. Admittedly a global hodgepodge, no single nation dominates global affairs. Instead, loose confederations work to resolve global problems such as poverty, climate change, disease epidemics, and international migration. The third scenario, "Emergence", recognizes change and coherence come from the bottom up to accommodate the slow adaptation process. Consequently, interconnected networks of individuals exert more influence than do either waning governments or slow-moving mega-corporations. Digital interconnectedness allows communities to apply local solutions to water, power, and food shortages rather than rely on federal bureaucracies to provide essentials.

What Kelly foresees are profound challenges from a geopolitical standpoint - the sudden increase in catastrophic damage caused by climate change, new demographic realities in terms of the potential spread of disease, and most obliquely, the challenge of how the West will adjust psychologically to a gradual loss of leadership to Asia. According to the author, Asians have a psychological advantage in that they have a much more ingrained "both/and" philosophy. He provides a simple example to illustrate his point - in the West, if you show a picture of a fish tank and ask them what they see, they will say they see three fish, but if you show the same picture to Asian people and ask them what they see, they will say an aquarium. Even this simple distinction in perception shows how we tend to break things down and see the bits, whereas Asia has a more contextual world view.

Kelly's assertions are bold, hopeful and terrifying as he dares to envision a future guided by no single area of knowledge. Rather, he foresees a future where new and newly efficient organizations, as well as individuals, realize unprecedented power. Global transformation, as described by Kelly, is not small order, as things will only change when we get to the point of thinking radically toward collaborative opportunity. Kelly's book makes for provocative reading and will hopefully add to the collective realization that we can achieve remarkable things.

Here is a brief excerpt from the Preface in which Kelly shares some especially significant observations which help to explain why he wrote this book. "Our world is increasingly complex and confusing, a crazy kaleidoscope of important but ambiguous dynamics from the worlds of politics, technology, economics, and culture - amplified but not necessarily clarified, by a ubiquitous yet partial global media....Our times demand that we make diversity and multiplicity a virtue, that we bridge divides, make connections, and find alignments and points of commonality - even as our differences frighten us, our ideologies polarize us, and our enemies enrage us (and this is as true within countries and regions as it is between them). Our times demand that we think long term, imagine the futures that we may be creating today, and prepare for the challenges and opportunities of tomorrow."

Each of the most important books I have read in recent years was written in response to a question such as "How can we possibly try to make sense of the future when the present is so profoundly perplexing?" Kelly's response to that question is provided within 12 chapters. After Chapter 1 which serves as an Introduction, the remaining chapters are divided among four Sections:

1. What's Happening?: Predicting the Present
2. What If?: Changing for the Challenges Ahead
3. What's Next?: Scenarios for the Next Decade
4. So What?: Acting in an Era of Transformation

Of special interest to me is what Kelly has to say about "dynamic tensions" which exacerbate the complexity and confusion to which he refers in the Preface. Specifically, those between clarity and craziness, secular and sacred, power and vulnerability, technology acceleration and pushback, intangible and physical economics, prosperity and decline, and finally, people and planet. Re the last, Kelly suggests that, over time, the human race "will begin to understand the profound autonomy of the planet - its long cycles of change and transformation that occur independently of our presence and our actions. We will then reach a collective realization that is more ancient wisdom than modern worldview - that the planet does not belong to us but we belong to it, and it will survive and change no matter what we do, while the opposite may not be true." Hence the importance of recognizing and then tracking the big, contextual forces that are reshaping the world today. These are "powerful times" because of such forces which create the aforementioned "dynamic tensions."

Recall the important question to which Kelly responds: "How can we possibly try to make sense of the future when the present is so profoundly perplexing?" To me, one of the most important portions of Kelly's response to that question is provided in Part 4, Chapter 12, when he rigorously and eloquently discusses what he calls "the new realities of business" at a time when, of all the changes during thus turbulent era, "one of the most significant is certainly the interconnectedness and interdependence of every part of the world." That is to say, "no place, no country, no person, and no organization stands entirely alone in any sphere." Kelly asserts, and I wholeheartedly agree, that we must aspire to "both a more profound understanding of and a shared commitment to sustain and nurture this shared global commons...but it would be naive to think that this will prove straightforward." Specifically, we must be willing "to believe in the scale of issues confronting us while the evidence is mounting but before it is conclusive - in other words, before it is too late." Also, "we must match our new global reality with a new global empathy, based on an acknowledgment that we have never been more interdependent and our interests have never been more inseparable."

As these brief remarks and my rating correctly indicate, I think this is one of the most important books written in recent years and I now strongly recommend it without any hesitation or qualification. So much remains to be done and very little of it will be easy. However, when quoting the late U.S. President Ronald Reagan at the conclusion of this book, Kelly poses two other important questions: "If not us, who? If not now, when?"

Those who share my high regard for this book are urged to check out Vijay Mahajan and Kamini Banga's The 86 Percent Solution: How to Succeed in the Biggest Market Opportunity of the Next 50 Years, Kenichi Ohmae's The Next Global Stage: The Challenges and Opportunities in Our Borderless World, and C.K. Prahalad's The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid: Eradicating Poverty Through Profits.