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Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions [Hardcover]

Dan Ariely
4.2 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (552 customer reviews)

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Book Description

May 19, 2009

"A marvelous book… thought provoking and highly entertaining."
—Jerome Groopman, New York Times bestselling author of How Doctors Think

"Ariely not only gives us a great read; he also makes us much wiser."
—George Akerlof, 2001 Nobel Laureate in Economics

"Revolutionary."
New York Times Book Review

Behavioral economist and New York Times bestselling author Dan Ariely offers a much-needed take on the irrational decisions that led to our current economic crisis.


Frequently Bought Together

Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions + The Upside of Irrationality: The Unexpected Benefits of Defying Logic at Work and at Home + The (Honest) Truth About Dishonesty: How We Lie to Everyone---Especially Ourselves
Price for all three: $56.98

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Editorial Reviews

From Publishers Weekly

Irrational behavior is a part of human nature, but as MIT professor Ariely has discovered in 20 years of researching behavioral economics, people tend to behave irrationally in a predictable fashion. Drawing on psychology and economics, behavioral economics can show us why cautious people make poor decisions about sex when aroused, why patients get greater relief from a more expensive drug over its cheaper counterpart and why honest people may steal office supplies or communal food, but not money. According to Ariely, our understanding of economics, now based on the assumption of a rational subject, should, in fact, be based on our systematic, unsurprising irrationality. Ariely argues that greater understanding of previously ignored or misunderstood forces (emotions, relativity and social norms) that influence our economic behavior brings a variety of opportunities for reexamining individual motivation and consumer choice, as well as economic and educational policy. Ariely's intelligent, exuberant style and thought-provoking arguments make for a fascinating, eye-opening read. (Feb.)
Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

Review

“This is a wonderful, eye-opening book. Deep, readable, and providing refreshing evidence that there are domains and situations in which material incentives work in unexpected ways. We humans are humans, with qualities that can be destroyed by the introduction of economic gains. A must read!” (Nassim Nicholas Taleb, New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable )

“Sly and lucid. . . . Predictably Irrational is a far more revolutionary book than its unthreatening manner lets on.” (New York Times Book Review )

“Surprisingly entertaining. . . . Easy to read. . . . Ariely’s book makes economics and the strange happenings of the human mind fun.” (USA Today )

“A fascinating romp through the science of decision-making that unmasks the ways that emotions, social norms, expectations, and context lead us astray.” (Time magazine )

“In creative ways, author Dan Ariely puts rationality to the test. . . . New experiments and optimistic ideas tumble out of him, like water from a fountain.” (Boston Globe )

“An entertaining tour of the many ways people act against their best interests, drawing on Ariely’s own ingeniously designed experiments. . . . Personal and accessible.” (BusinessWeek )

“Ariely’s book addresses some weighty issues . . . with an unexpected dash of humor.” (Entertainment Weekly )

“Inventive. . . . An accessible account. . . . Ariely is a more than capable storyteller . . . If only more researchers could write like this, the world would be a better place.” (Financial Times )

“Ariely’s intelligent, exuberant style and thought-provoking arguments make for a fascinating, eye-opening read.” (Publishers Weekly )

“A taxonomy of financial folly.” (The New Yorker )

“A marvelous book that is both thought provoking and highly entertaining, ranging from the power of placebos to the pleasures of Pepsi. Ariely unmasks the subtle but powerful tricks that our minds play on us, and shows us how we can prevent being fooled.” (Jerome Groopman, New York Times bestselling author of How Doctors Think )

“Dan Ariely is a genius at understanding human behavior: no economist does a better job of uncovering and explaining the hidden reasons for the weird ways we act, in the marketplace and out. PREDICTABLY IRRATIONAL will reshape the way you see the world, and yourself, for good.” (James Surowiecki, author of The Wisdom of Crowds )

“PREDICTABLY IRRATIONAL is a charmer-filled with clever experiments, engaging ideas, and delightful anecdotes. Dan Ariely is a wise and amusing guide to the foibles, errors, and bloopers of everyday decision-making.” (Daniel Gilbert, Professor of Psychology, Harvard University and author of Stumbling on Happiness )

“The most difficult part of investing is managing your emotions. Dan explains why that is so challenging for all of us, and how recognizing your built-in biases can help you avoid common mistakes.” (Charles Schwab, Chairman and CEO, The Charles Schwab Corporation )

“PREDICTABLY IRRATIONAL is wildly original. It shows why—much more often than we usually care to admit—humans make foolish, and sometimes disastrous, mistakes. Ariely not only gives us a great read; he also makes us much wiser.” (George Akerlof, Nobel Laureate in Economics, 2001 Koshland Professor of Economics, University of California at Berkeley )

“Dan Ariely’s ingenious experiments explore deeply how our economic behavior is influenced by irrational forces and social norms. In a charmingly informal style that makes it accessible to a wide audience, PREDICTABLY IRRATIONAL provides a standing criticism to the explanatory power of rational egotistic choice.” (Kenneth Arrow, Nobel Prize in Economics 1972, Professor of Economics Stanford University )

“A delightfully brilliant guide to our irrationality—and how to overcome it—in the marketplace and everyplace.” (Geoffrey Moore, author of Crossing the Chasm and Dealing with Darwin )

“After reading this book, you will understand the decisions you make in an entirely new way.” (Nicholas Negroponte, founder of MIT's Media Lab and founder and chairman of the One Laptop per Child non-profit association )

“PREDICTABLY IRRATIONAL is a scientific but imminently readable and decidedly insightful look into why we do what we do every day...and why, even though we ‘know better,’ we may never change.” (Wenda Harris Millard, President, Media, Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia )

“Predictably Irrational is an important book. Full of valuable and entertaining insights that will make an impact on your business, professional, and personal life.” (Jack M Greenberg, Chairman, Western Union Company, Retired Chairman and CEO, McDonald's Corporation )

“Predictably Irrational is clever, playful,humorous, hard hitting, insightful, and consistently fun and exciting to read.” (Paul Slovic, Founder and President, Decision Research )

“Freakonomics held that people respond to incentives, perhaps in undesirable ways, but always rationally. Dan Ariely shows you how people are deeply irrational, and predictably so.” (Chip Heath, Co-Author, Made to Stick, Professor, Stanford Graduate School of Business )

Product Details

  • Hardcover: 400 pages
  • Publisher: Harper; Revised & enlarged edition (May 19, 2009)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0061854549
  • ISBN-13: 978-0061854545
  • Product Dimensions: 9.2 x 6.4 x 1.4 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 1.4 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
  • Average Customer Review: 4.2 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (552 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #70,863 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

More About the Author

Dan Ariely is the James B Duke Professor of Psychology and Behavioral Economics at Duke University.

Dan publishes widely in the leading scholarly journals in economics, psychology, and business. His work has been featured in a variety of media including The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, Boston Globe, Business 2.0, Scientific American, Science and CNN. He splits his time between Durham NC and the rest of the world

Customer Reviews

The book is also well written, and I would even say enjoyable to read. Irfan A. Alvi  |  174 reviewers made a similar statement
All of the conclusions in the book are convincingly supported by often remarkably clever experiments. David M. Giltinan  |  52 reviewers made a similar statement
Most Helpful Customer Reviews
147 of 156 people found the following review helpful
Format:Hardcover
This book and Dan Ariely have recieved a lot of media attention, so I approached the book with some skepticism, thinking that it might be overhyped. I'm pleased to report that my skepticism turned out to be unwarranted.

The book has many strengths, the main one being that it convincingly presents many ways people are wired and/or conditioned to be irrational, usually without even being aware of it. This eye-opening revelation can be a bit disheartening, but the good news is that we can fix at least some of this irrationality by being aware of how it can arise and then making a steady effort to override it or compensate for it. That's not an easy task, but it can be done. As a simple example, I've programmed a realistic exercise schedule into my PDA, and I've been very consistent with my exercise because of that. The PDA imposes a discipline on me which I couldn't otherwise impose on myself (as I know from experience).

The book is also well written, and I would even say enjoyable to read. The many experiments described in the book are presented in a lively way which elicits interest, and Ariely goes into just the right amount of detail -- enough to convey the basic experimental designs, results, and plausible interpretations, without boring the reader by getting into esoteric points which are more appropriate for journal papers.

The one criticism I have of the book, which applies to most of Western pscyhology, is that most of the described experiments used US college students as subjects. That raises a serious question regarding the extent to which the results can be generalized to people of the same age who aren't college students, people of other ages, and people outside the US. Study of cultural psychology reveals that differences due to these factors can be profound, and Ariely himself notes a Korean study where such differences were observed, but he doesn't really elaborate on the point.

Despite this one criticism, I think this is an excellent and authoritative book, and among the better ones in the "why smart people do dumb things" genre, so I highly recommend it. The insights revealed are both fascinating and practical, if you can muster the discipline to apply them.
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314 of 343 people found the following review helpful
By Drifty
Format:Hardcover
I have been thinking about economics seriously for nearly 30 years. Classical economics is built to no small degree on the notion that people will generally act in their own best self interest, after rationally and intelligently examining their options. This fit my world view fine in my first career as an engineer (BS and MS in Electrical Engineering).

From my 2nd Career as a Business Development person (MBA), I began to have to deal with people's tendency to not entirely think things through.

Here in this book, we have a professor who runs socioeconomic tests on his MBA students. These students are smart enough, worldly enough, experienced enough, and educated enough to approximate the standard economic assumptions and produce reasonably rational behavior.

Guess what. Even among broad experiments conducted on multiple MBA classes over time, one can predictably pre-bias the outcome of a particular run of a socioeconomic experiment by what seeds you plant in the class members' minds before the experiment. For example, in one experiment in estimating prices, the author requires his students to write the last two digits of their social security numbers on the top of the paper. Simply the act of writing a high number (e.g., 88) versus a low number (e.g., 08) produced statistically significant correlatable influences on the students' later price estimates. Those compelled to write "88" at the top of their papers would reliably estimate higher prices than those compelled to write "08" at the top of their papers, to a statistically significant degree.

Extrapolating to "real life." Watching Fox News will tend to make you more conservative without you knowing it. Watching MSNBC news will tend to make you more liberal without you knowing it.

If you want to understand "real truth," you are just going to have to do a little more than self-select your news feeds. You are going to have to seriously consider a diversity of viewpoints.

Moreover, if you have Social Darwinist beliefs as I once did, you may need to re-think the concept of the Poverty Trap. Early pre-conditioning really does make a difference.

Here is the way I think of it as an Engineer. Classical Economic Theory is analogous to Classical Newtonian Physics. There is nothing badly wrong with it, and it is a good approximation for most real world problems at the middle of the distribution.

However, General Relativity is indeed more correct that Classical Newtonian Physics, and the additional knowledge makes a real difference in certain special cases. And, those special cases are sometimes the really important ones. Likewise, Behavioral Economics is adding something very valuable to our knowledge of Classical Economics.

Read this only if you are brave enough to contemplate that the world might be a little more complex than we wish it were.
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267 of 295 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars Welcome to the fuzzy world of being human. February 19, 2008
Format:Hardcover
Dan Ariely is the guy you'd want at your dinner party. He's witty, smart and also very inclusive - sharing his passion for the way humans tick in a way that makes us feel great about the fact that, rational as we like to think we are, we make bad snap decisions, we cheat and we get ruled by our heart precisely when the facts are screaming "go the other way!" There's a lot in this writing which celebrates our human-ness. Why do we do this?
What Ariely has done here is shift a lot of the thinking developed by such pioneers as Kahneman & Tversky who worked in behavioural economics, and moved it into the everyday sphere. And he's done a great, insightful job. Where the behavioural economists are focused on financial decisions (why we buy high and sell low - and confound the assumptions of the classic economists who assume 'the rational man,) Ariely eschews the technical language and walks us through everyday examples of our often fuzzy and quite irrational decision-making.

The result is utterly engaging - and this easy 300 page read still has academic rigour and strong foundations. Ariely cites many experiments and examples, and shows that we often get things wrong because we frame things the wrong way, mis-judge probabilities, apply heuristic rules of thumb that don't always work, or we just plain let our emotions rule.

We love to think that we're educated, rational and moral. Yet who hasn't overestimated the upside on a sure-fire investment, bought some clothing that we knew was a mistake even as we bought it, or got our wires crossed between work-rules and social rules? This book is fascinating, entertaining and very, very illuminating.

- Recommended for the general public, but I'd urge marketers, market researchers and business people to read this one carefully. Dan provides excellent dinner-party insights, but they apply to our real world and explain why so many poor decisions are made - whether by customers or by the 'rational' business people who make million-dollar decisions.

- Recommended companion book: Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness here one of the godfathers of behavioural economics discusses the way we can manage the "choice architecture" in our world.
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Most Recent Customer Reviews
5.0 out of 5 stars Maybe you are going to realise your mistaken thought.
The author is wise and connected with the real world and with the unpredictability and vulnerability of the human being. Read more
Published 2 days ago by Jairo Ap Martins
3.0 out of 5 stars contains interesting insights as to why we seemingly act irrational in...
The book contains interesting insights as to why we seemingly act irrational in our day-to-day purchase decisions, getting us to think about why we make our decisions from a... Read more
Published 3 days ago by Michael Ruckman
5.0 out of 5 stars Got me to love reading again.
I first found Dan Ariely by watching his TED talk. He had me hooked. So I bought this book (he mentioned it in the TED talk). Read more
Published 7 days ago by Jill Tasei
5.0 out of 5 stars Educational and Hillarious!
Predictably Irrational was both educational and hillarious. The book was written by a behavioral economics researcher at MIT. Read more
Published 8 days ago by Jason A. Griggs
4.0 out of 5 stars An Irrational Yet Predictable Review
Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions by Dan Ariely

"Predictably Irrational" is a fascinating look at irrational human behavior. Read more
Published 12 days ago by J. Gomez
2.0 out of 5 stars Below Average
I purchased this book for use in a social psychology class and found it very un-useful. I personally do not recommend this book. Read more
Published 13 days ago by jhjhjhj
5.0 out of 5 stars Real Market Behaviour
The author is a genius in the sense of looking for the real engine of man decitions. BEWARE it can result in understanding and controlling irrationality in your life. Read more
Published 13 days ago by Pedro Lopez
5.0 out of 5 stars Awesome book. Looking forward to read the other ones from same author
This book reminds of Freaconomics. Both of them are fantastic.
I learnt many tricks reading Predictably Irrational that are helping me with daily decisions, specially when I... Read more
Published 13 days ago by Cristian Berri
5.0 out of 5 stars Great Book
It is a very nice introduction to behavioral economy, even if it is also accessible to anybody without any economics background.
Published 14 days ago by Etfi
5.0 out of 5 stars Yes we are
so much for free thinking
we make decisions all the time based on hidden forces
this book reveals some of them and is an interesting read
Published 16 days ago by Brian Dolly
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