Customer Reviews

Predicting the Future: An Introduction to the Theory of Forecasting

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Rescher is an internationally known professor of philosophy, not a business guru who earns his living by selling " Predicting the future" -seminars. This is partly good news, partly bad news.

The good news is that this is a serious book. It looks at the fundamental questions about what can be firmly said about the future. Rescher deals with philosophical concepts in epistemology and ontology, and discusses underlying principles at length.

The bad news is that Rescher never discusses any concrete examples at any length; as soon as discussion starts to get interesting, it is time to take a new viewpoint. There are plenty of interesting topics which could have been discussed at more length, weather or the stock market, but one page is maximum Rescher dwells on any one topic. John Casti's book "Searching for certainty" is much better in this respect (but the book is on prediction in science only). Business predictions are much better discussed by Schnaars in "Megamistakes".

Rescher is one the co-inventors of the Delphi-method (with Olaf Helmer and Norman Dalkey) but his discussion of the method is a dissapointment. It is very cursory, and their is a strong pet-theory bias: a 1960 Delphi study about the world in year 2000 includes, among others, predictions such as: -world population 5.1 billion -ocean farming -fusion energy -minerals extracted from oceans -regional weather control -manufacturing in the Moon -men will have landed on Mars -global ballistic transport on Earth -effective anti-missile defence -correction of hereditary defects by molecular engineering

Rescher's analysis is that "the accuracy and utility of that particular study still looks quite respectable".

Rescher has the annoying habit of using overly simplistic examples which diminish the value of his otherwise interesting discussions on fundamental principles (a philosphical educational method ?) e.g. Who will the president of the United States in 2100 ? Will there be more than three letters "e" on the front page of the Wall Street Journal tomorrow ?

The best thing about the book is the title. The author discusses in length some obvious limitations on forecasting which exist simply because we are finite beings. But Rescher's formulation of this quite trivial fact sounds as follows: "the predictive venture of securing rationally warranted foresight into the future therefore faces rather equivocal prospects." (p.245) Now, this quote is representative of Mr. Rescher's heavy academic style.

I completely agree with the Finnish reviewer regarding the lack of depth in any subject and example discussed. Rescher's books on Idealism are much better -- my guess is because he is an Idealist and enjoys writing on the subject. Reading this book however I felt that the author just had to finish writing it as a business duty to his publisher.