Predicting the Future: From Verne to Bill Gates [Hardcover]

John Malone (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: September 2, 1997

The moving sidewalk never materialized...but we did get to the moon.

Editorial Reviews

From School Library Journal

YAAFor each of the predictions mentioned in this book, Malone includes its date of origin, the predictor, and a brief background and explanation of it, including whether or not it came to fruition. The wide variety of viewpoints shows that making an accurate prediction in contemporary times is just as difficult as it was 140 years ago. Darryl F. Zanuck's prediction that television would not last more than six months contrasts sharply with the astute judgment of Wolfgang Pauli's informed guess regarding the existence of the neutrino. The well-known misjudgment of Harry Truman losing to Dewey as reported by The Chicago Tribune appears, as is the fact that Alexander Graham Bell's telephone was deemed a toy. On the other hand, the predictions of Jules Verne prove to have been astutely correct. Each section offers enough background to entice readers into further research. The predictions can be read as individual events or to provide a wider perspective on the topic of forecasting the future. Although the predictions are based on research and a bibliography is included, editorial comments accompany each event and present the author's own viewpoint regarding the prediction or predictor. The book offers information entertaining enough for most trivia buffs. In addition, young adults searching for an interesting topic to research will find many from which to choose.APam Johnson, Fairfax County Public Library, VA
Copyright 1998 Reed Business Information, Inc.

About the Author

John Malone

Product Details

• Hardcover: 224 pages
• Publisher: M.Evans & Company; 1st edition (September 2, 1997)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 087131830X
• ISBN-13: 978-0871318305
• Product Dimensions: 9 x 6.1 x 0.9 inches
• Shipping Weight: 14.9 ounces
• Average Customer Review: 2.7 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (3 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #2,688,013 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

6 of 6 people found the following review helpful:

1.0 out of 5 stars a pitifully researched book, July 22, 1999

By 

Norman "brancamenta" (Los Angeles) - See all my reviews

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This review is from: Predicting the Future: From Verne to Bill Gates (Hardcover)

This is a pitifully researched book. Lazy. It sells disinformation.

Problem: Malone devotes a "chapter" (or whatever they were) to the supposed shortsighted quote attributed to Charles Duell, the Commissioner of the U.S. Office of Patents in 1899. We've all heard it: "Everything that can be invented, has been invented." Unfortunately, this is a completely bogus myth (though popular), and Duell never said anything of the sort, as even the slightest research into his life would have quickly revealed. Myth passed as truth. Lazy. Disinformation.

Problem: Malone attributes the conception of the fax machine to Jules Verne in his novel Paris in the 2oth century. He offers as evidence a passage from Verne's book: "photographic telegraphy, invented in the last century by ... Giovanni Caselli of Florence, permitted transmission of the facsimile form of any writing or illustration...". Amazingly, Malone mistook Professor Caselli for a Verne-invented fictional character. In fact, a real Caselli DID invent a working fax, a model which sent pictures from Lyon to Paris from 1865-70, starting before the publication of Verne's book. Patents for faxes go back to 1843. Lazy. Disinformation.

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful:

2.0 out of 5 stars A bathroom book, June 22, 1999

By A Customer

Amazon Verified Purchase

This review is from: Predicting the Future: From Verne to Bill Gates (Hardcover)

This is a book of interesting little stories about how smart people have tried to predict the future but failed. However, the lack of organization means that you can't really use it for a reference, and sooner or later you tire of reading the stories and try to think about the issue a little more systematically.

5.0 out of 5 stars Even the smartest didn't always get it right, September 22, 1997

By A Customer

This review is from: Predicting the Future: From Verne to Bill Gates (Hardcover)

A fascinating account of the power of the imagination to not only predict but also create the future. An elegant writer and judicious chooser of facts, Malone takes a level-headed approach to the people he writes about, deflating and praising as appropriate. PREDICTING THE FUTURE provides a useful context for evaluating all the technological changes coming at us today