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Predicting Politics Paperback – June 24, 2002


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Predicting Politics + The Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future + The Dictator's Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics
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Product Details

  • Paperback: 170 pages
  • Publisher: The Ohio State University Press; 1st edition (June 24, 2002)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0814250947
  • ISBN-13: 978-0814250945
  • Product Dimensions: 9.1 x 6.3 x 0.4 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 0.8 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
  • Average Customer Review: 4.5 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (4 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #1,129,486 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

More About the Author

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is Professor of Politics at New York University and a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution.

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37 of 37 people found the following review helpful By Gaetan Lion on October 12, 2009
Format: Paperback Verified Purchase
As the author just completed his most recent book The Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future one should realize that the latter is earmarked for the masses. If you are interested in more mathematical details regarding the author's policy forecasting model, this book is far more informative.

In view of the above, this book is pretty satisfying because the author walks you through the underlying math to better understand his model (chapter 3). He also divulges much more readily than in "The Predictioneer's Game" the mathematical underpinnings to his theory. He gives much credit to Banks's Monotonicity in Asymmetric Information Games and Black's Median Voter Theorem. He also mentions Bargaining Theory, Expected Utility Theory, Spatial Theory (- of voting, - of politics), Rational Choice Theory as key to the development of his own model. Meanwhile, within "The Predictioneer's Game" he pretty much simplified his mathematical sources by just mentioning them all under the single umbrella of Game Theory. As better described within this book, there is a lot more to it than Game Theory.

The overall structure of the model is pretty much identical to the one depicted in "The Predictioneer's Game." It consists of gathering data on three main variables (resources or influence, position on an issue, salience) for each player or stakeholder relevant to the issue you attempt to forecast or analyze. Then you calculate the weighted average or median position of all players to forecast the most likely outcome for the given analyzed issue in the first round of negotiation.
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4 of 5 people found the following review helpful By pdf on July 25, 2010
Format: Paperback
Seconding Lion's detailed review. Found the book following the references in the author's general-readership book Predictioneer's Game. Predicting Politics provided the nuts and bolts of how his model works and what questions that it is best suited to address.
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Format: Paperback Verified Purchase
BBdM has a stellar track record. This seems to be the best single reference on his approach, but you still need to go to other books and articles, and still you won't have a complete picture.
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By w_scott_wallace on October 18, 2013
Format: Paperback Verified Purchase
A wonderful book about political process and prediction. I highly recommended it as well as other texts by the author.
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