Predictions: Society's Telltale Signature Reveals Past & Forcasts the Future [Hardcover]

Theodore Modis (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: September 1, 1992

Using the amazing science of S-Curves, Theodore Modis explores--and explodes--the assumptions we make about everything from car safety to artistic achievement. Pointing out that once a growth process has been established, its future course is predictable, Modis illuminates everything from the automobile death toll to the origins of Christianity.

Editorial Reviews

From Publishers Weekly

Modis believes that the S-curves that mathematicians use to chart natural growth processes can also be used to predict social phenomena, including the life cycles of products, tourism trends and patterns of creativity. Utilizing S-curves and related techniques, he estimates the number of westward expeditions that failed prior to Columbus's voyage; suggests that Mozart may have exhausted his creative potential at the age of 35; and predicts that the discovery of a cure for AIDS is unlikely until a relatively dramatic decline in the yearly number of AIDS deaths occurs. In what sometimes seems like an intellectual parlor game, Modis, a management science consultant, applies his sweeping theories to criminal careers, energy consumption and human life expectancy. He also posits a 56-year cycle that purportedly rocks society with alternating waves of violence and achievement, prosperity and economic depression. Mathematics buffs will be the most likely readers of this offbeat excursion.
Copyright 1992 Reed Business Information, Inc.

From Library Journal

When the scale of measurement is the cumulative amount of heartbeats in a lifetime, plotted on an S-curve, most mammals die at the same age! Modis uses this science of S-curves to establish a growth process in order to predict the future. He makes such diverse predictions as an AIDS cure and an increase in human life expectancy, but he also "back-forecasts" the origins of Christianity and Columbus's discovery of America. This is very technical stuff, suitable for statisticians or other scientists, and will be extremely intimidating to lay readers. Other recent futurist material, such as Taichi Sakaiya's The Knowledge-Value Revolution ( LJ 8/91), will be more generally accessible. For libraries with strong technical or scientific collections.
- Dale Farris, Groves, Tex.
Copyright 1992 Reed Business Information, Inc.

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Product Details

• Hardcover: 288 pages
• Publisher: Simon & Schuster (September 1, 1992)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0671759175
• ISBN-13: 978-0671759179
• Product Dimensions: 9.3 x 6.2 x 1.1 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.3 pounds
• Average Customer Review: 4.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (2 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #945,899 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

More About the Author

Theodore Modis holds a Masters in Electrical Engineering and a Ph.D. in Physics, both from Columbia University, New York.

Before founding Growth Dynamics in 1994 (www.growth-dynamics.com), he worked at Digital Equipment Corporation as the head of a management science consultants group for over ten years. Previously, he carried out research in particle-physics experiments at Brookhaven National Laboratory and Europe's CERN.

He has taught at Columbia University, the University of Geneva, the European business schools INSEAD and IMD, and the leadership school DUXX, in Monterrey, Mexico.

He lives in Lugano, Switzerland.

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

4 of 4 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Very interesting statistical treatment of diverse phenomona., July 8, 1998

By A Customer

This review is from: Predictions: Society's Telltale Signature Reveals Past & Forcasts the Future (Hardcover)

"Predictions" by Theodore Modis is a physicist's look at broad technical, economic, and social trends over a long time span, as interpreted through the statistical techniques of Cesare Marchetti. He manages to tie togther diverse phenomona such as energy usage, artistic creativity, and traffic fatalities in a way that would have dawned on very few ordinary readers before reading this book. While I found it very interesting indeed, some of the generalizations being made should be taken with a grain of salt. The book is best if taken in broad outline without questioning every interpretation which Modis makes. Many readers might be put of by the math, but this is mostly light and explained in the form of prose rather than equations. I highly recommend reading it, although a healthly skepticm is in order.

4 of 5 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Useful and thought-provoking, April 8, 2000

By 

Robert D. Steele (Oakton, VA United States) - See all my reviews
(TOP 500 REVIEWER)    (HALL OF FAME REVIEWER)   

This review is from: Predictions: Society's Telltale Signature Reveals Past & Forcasts the Future (Hardcover)

Or, everything you ever wanted to know about the S-curve and why it all makes sense in the end. This book is about creativity, competition, and the natural order of things. Mutants are most important during times of violent change (the end of a paradigm) when they offer substantial variation from the non-workable past and hence improve the shift toward survival by being more fit for the new circumstances. Interestingly, each successive transport infrastructure (canals to rails to roads to airways) provides an order of magnitude improvement in productivity. One could consider the personal computer and modem a way station on this trend, with networking and true global collaborative work tools as the next node. In the life spiral of change 1996 is the center of a "charging" period with new order and new technology, and will lead to tension and grow in the 2000-2010 period followed by a discharge boom and then relaxation and recession in the 2010-2020 period. Pollution is the next "global war" that needs to be fought, and we will not have a global village until we can reduce the travel time between any two points anywhere to 70 minutes and a cumulative cost for a year of such travel to 15% of the average global income.