Customer Reviews

Preparing for the Twenty-First Century

5 star:		(10)
4 star:		(1)
3 star:		(1)
2 star:		(2)
1 star:		(1)

 

 

Like a lot of readers, I gulped down Paul Kennedy's THE RISE AND FALL OF THE GREAT POWERS when it came out in 1987, eager to read his predictions for the US, Japan, China, Russia, and the European Community. His reasoning, solidly based on his detailed knowledge of European history, made his book appear sedately respectable--even to those who did not agree with his conclusions. His second volume, PREPARING FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY, was inevitably a different sort of project: extrapolation of then-current trends into the new millenium. The book was published in 1993, but I didn't finish reading it until this summer; one of its pleasures was seeing how close his predictions came to the reality of events in places such as Japan and Russia. (His view toward Japan was one of "guarded optimisn": he felt it was in some ways best-suited for the challenges of the 21st century, but he pinpointed its vulnerabilities and deficiencies--especially the weakness of its political leadership, which is now proving so costly. With regard to Russia and to Eastern Europe, he was clearly pessimistic but attempted to consider more moderate possibilities; in the end he tended to underestimate the catastrophes ahead.) In many ways the second book shares the strengths of the first: sound reasoning, a good base of facts, and a point of view neither alarmist nor Pollyannish. Kennedy identifies trends, issues, and problems; he attempts to clarify choices and parameters. He suggests potential winners and losers of various scenarios. He does what he sets out to do; but most people don't really like this second volume, I think, because he is honest about the magnitude of the issues and the limits of possible responses. Kennedy focuses on trends in demographics, economics, technology, ecology, and politics: things like globalization and robotics and biotechnology--but he puts these glittering changes into specific contexts. Who wins, and who loses, he asks, when these trends interact with the specifics of cultures as diverse as China and Sweden, Japan and Mexico, Russia and Ethiopia? And how do the interactions among various trends intensify the impact of each? How much can political and economic leaders do to magnify advantages or minimize deficits? And how likely are the elites to do the right thing? Without advocating fatalism, Kennedy ends his book by saying, "...in the unlikely event that governments and societies do decide to transform themselves, we ought to recognize that our endeavors might have only a marginal efect on the profound driving forces of today's world." This is NOT what the elites want to hear, but in a month of Japanese recession sliding into depression and Russian debility crumbling into chaos, Paul Kennedy's cool rationality seems more relevant than ever.

Another outstanding work by Paul Kennedy. One question that I've been pondering over the past few years is "Will America fall from its preeminent position like all the superpowers of the past (Rome, China, UK) ?" . I think Paul Kennedy answered the question when he said that the US is undergoing a long, slow, relative (to the rest of the world) decline, similar to what happened to the UK in the 20th century. I know I'll catch heat from some of my fellow Americans who want to believe America will be the only superpower to the end of time. However, the cycle of rise, dominance, and decline of great nations has never been broken and we should be prepared to adjust to that inevitable outcome.

Paul Kennedy's "Preparing for the Twenty-First Century" is an intellectual look at global trends ranging from global warming to the scientific breakthroughs in biotechnology and robotics. He begins his analysis by discussing one of the world's greatest challenges today - population growth. The world today is similar to that of what Thomas Malthus saw in 1798, a population that could and would outgrow the resources available.

One of the more entertaining subjects for students of political thought is his analysis of economic globalization. Mr. Kennedy points to some specific reasons on why the economic progress of globalization has been so slow forthcoming: corrupt regimes, excess military funding, and religious fundamentalism, to name a few. Mr. Kennedy believes that a global shift towards biotechnology would allow us to move away from traditional farming practices; therefore making it easier to fight global threats such as starvation and economic deprivation. There are, of course, many other issues discussed in "Preparing for the Twenty-First Century."

In conclusion, Mr. Kennedy's thoughts on the future of the American Empire are of a pessimistic view. As he states, with a great support of factual information, the continuous decline in economic growth, loss in per capita productivity, and a rising trade deficit are issues of serious concern. Besides the economic threats, the country also faces social challenges in areas of crime, health, and education. A must read for under-graduate and graduate students of political science and thought.

Frankly, this book was a maddening read.

First, by now this work is quite dated and you can't help wondering if there are better ways to be contemplating the coming millenium. For instance, no discussion is given to the Internet in the "global communications" chapter -- hard to blame Kennedy for this in 1993, but it's like reading about the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe before the Berlin Wall.

But most aggravating (and the reason I hated this book) was Kennedy's wordy, repetitive academic writing style. The central thesis and supporting points could have been presented in a work one-third the size. For example, here's a typical sentence (see if you can make it to the end without skimming):

"Technological challenges, gender issues, migration, the future of agriculture, environmental damage, the implication of globalization, and the impact of all this upon policies, spending priorities, even values and culture, are the subject of intense interest, from France to Japan, from Kansas to Cairo."

What?

Finally, after plowing through this mess (which will take you a while, especially accounting for the frequent naps you'll have to take), you discover the ultimate insult: there are no original conclusions.

So, don't buy this book -- borrow a copy if you don't believe me, and use it like this: 1) Read the first chapter to get the general argument. 2) Read the second chapter to start sinking into Kennedy's wordy quagmire, then fondly remember that I warned you. Be thankful that you have the power to skip ahead. 3) Skip to the concluding chapter, and witness the absence of any original thought. 4) If still interested in the topic, buy a subscription to The Economist -- they are much better at covering this substance and know how to write a terse article that quickly hits the salient points.

One thing is for sure about the 21st century: with so many things competing for our attention, time will be the scarcest resource -- one that each of us will guard carefully. That means, quite simply, that we won't be investing our precious time in books written as poorly as this one.

Despite being nearly 15 years old, this book hits a lot of the key points on the money.

No, Kennedy didn't know in 1993 how bad global warming might be, nor how strong Islamic fanaticism might become, nor how much rich-poor gaps, both North-South and within some countries like the U.S., might become.

But, that these issues, along with demographics and non-warming environmental issues, would be the touchstones for individual countries, and the world as a whole, he was right on the money.

I think Kennedy could well serve the public by coming out with a revised edition to reflect further knowledge and offer further prognostications.

Kennedy's careful and insightful analysis of various regions of the world and their outlooks for the 21st century is a "must" read for anyone who cares for the future of this country or, indeed, the world -- and, I hope, this includes our lawmakers and President. He identifies population growth as the common driver of the issues facing virtually every region. His forecast for the future of the US is not encouraging. It is regrettable, however, that the author did not include a two-dimensional spreadsheet comparing the regions on all the parameters he identifies. While written in 1993, the forecasts are so accurate that one might think it was written last year.

Paul Kennedy is truly brilliant in providing a synthesis of the major trends of the current World. I read this book 10 years back, re-read it, and found it to be an excellent companion to discern the mega-trends.

Kennedy talks about 3 key trends - Demographic shifts, Economic Aspirations and Ecology.

Developed countries are aging and developing countries are becoming younger. This demographic shift should lead to a need for shifting productive people to the developed economies. With the spread of communication, the poor in developing countries have higher economic aspirations. So they want to shift to richer countries, more than before. As Kennedy points out, the only hitch is resistance to immigration.

And it is interesting to see how the World solved this problem through fiber optic cables. So the developed World now has remote workers. And even Kennedy could not have foreseen that.

The other issue he talks about is not so easy to solve. He forecasts that economic growth aspirations will lead an ecological challenge. The emerging 'energy wars', and the consequence of industrial development in China and India are bringing us face to face with the challenges that Kennedy anticipated. So, the choice is to deny the developing countries the prosperity that the rich countries enjoy, or risk the World blowing up - ecologically. And who can decide. Such is the dilemma posed by Paul Kennedy's brilliant analysis.

A true historian and a forecaster.

Back in 1993, the book sounded ominously prescient. Those were the years when the intellectual fashion was to predict the demise of the US and the coming supremacy of Germany and Japan (Lester Thurow, etc.). Kennedy said Japan, with its cohesive, educated society, would do better than the US and Europe, with their aging, diverse populations. Well, it's still early in the century to say anything, but so far Japan's homogeneous society looks stagnant, while the US and many European societies are extremely dynamic, thanks in good part to the energy of immigrants.

Of course it is not a dumb book. Kennedy is intelligent as a historian, but makes a very poor prophet (the Rise and Fall of the Great Powers is another interesting but very flawed book). Kennedy does not talk about Internet, for example. Not his fault, certainly, but anyway it's a thing to miss in a prediction of what the XXI century will be like. Summing up, the book was interesting eight years ago, but by now it looks very dated. Prophesizing is always an exciting but risky game to play.

One of the great gifts of Paul Kennedy is perspective. He takes you up and lets you look at things from a distance, putting them in perspective. So it was with great anticipation that I read this book in 2010, predicting 2025 from the vantage point of 1990.

He gets a lot right, and is only way off on a few things. There is an (in retrospect) annoying focus on robotics, which was very big in the eighties. Kennedy takes that and projects it to 2025 as if robots would be the measure of any industrial society. I don't think he goes five pages without using the word. Well, it hasn't turned out that way. For one thing, assembly lines and packaging machines have simply become far more sophisticated, so instead of programmable robot arms, we get entire systems in a room.

On the other hand, the anticipation of methane being released from Siberian permafrost, the rising of the oceans, the killing off of various species and inconvenient climate change is well underway as predicted. No one has the right to be taken by surprise.

I learned a great deal from this book, as I do from everything Kennedy writes. Worth the trip.

I found this book to be very informative. My only complain is that many topics were a little too broad, i.e. the chapters on Multinational Corps; Internet and Robotics; on Asian Economies etc. However, the insights and ideas found in the book would very much help in policy making. I would recommend this book to all, especially to those who want to be leaders and government officials.