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Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners (International Series in Operations Research & Management Science) Paperback – January 31, 2002

4.8 out of 5 stars 5 customer reviews

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Editorial Reviews

Review

`...Its wide-ranging scope ensures that almost every type of forecasting activity is reviewed and summarised and distilled into principles by an expert in that particular field. ... Its broad scope and thorough summary of the available evidence makes it a valuable guide for any quantitative professional venturing into an unfamiliar area of forecasting.'
John Aitchison, Director of DataSciencesResearch (www.DataSciencesResearch.com)
`This very readable handbook provides a comprehensive synopsis of the entire field of forecasting. The editor, Scott Armstrong, is highly qualified to pull together such a volume. He has been centrally involved in the development of the subject for more than two decades. Armstrong's publications cover the field, ranging from econometric modeling and the extrapolation of time-series data, to role playing and opinion-based forecasting; he is the author of the equally comprehensive book Long-Range Forecasting, which was published in 1978...In sum, Principles of Forecasting is a very handsome volume. It will be a welcome addition to any applied research library, and it should be kept near at hand by any statistician.'
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series D, The Statistician (forthcoming in 2003)
(For the complete review, please check: forecastingprinciples.com)
`... Armstrong's book goes beyond its stated goal of presenting the state of the art of forecasting research in the form of concrete principles; it sets the tone and direction for all future work in this area. The book has earned its place as the bible for forecasters and is a "must have" in every forecaster's library.'
Journal of Marketing Research, XXXIX (2003)

About the Author

Professor Armstrong is the author of Long-Range Forecasting and he is a founder of the Journal of Forecasting, the International Journal of Forecasting, the International Institute of Forecasting and the International Symposium on Forecasting. For additional information on the book and on the Forecasting Principles Project, see the home page.
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Product Details

  • Series: International Series in Operations Research & Management Science (Book 30)
  • Paperback: 850 pages
  • Publisher: Springer; 2001 edition (January 31, 2002)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0792374010
  • ISBN-13: 978-0792374015
  • Product Dimensions: 7 x 0.8 x 10 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 3.4 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
  • Average Customer Review: 4.8 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (5 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #936,939 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Top Customer Reviews

Format: Hardcover
The subtitle of this book, A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners, too narrowly defines the audience for Armstrong's new reference. Principles of Forecasting is, in fact, an indispensable resource for managers and professionals of every ilk. Forecasting is an integral part of decisions that we make and that are made for us. To be good decision makers and citizens we owe it to ourselves and others both to make our forecasts explicit and to examine the quality of those forecasts. This book gives the guidance to ensure that best practices are followed and to judge forecast quality after the fact
Principles of Forecasting is not a book that you will find in airport bookstores. It is not a popular management title that dishes-up the latest buzzwords. On the contrary, this book will give you knowledge to examine critically the fashions and fads, as well as the received wisdom, of management. And yet, despite being a serious work, the book is a joy to read at length, or to browse. I suspect many decision makers will tend to do the latter.
The Forecasting Dictionary is part of Principles of Forecasting and is a good place to start some directed browsing. For example, experienced decision makers will often rely on their intuition, even for important decisions. Is that a good idea? The Forecasting Dictionary has an entry for "intuition" that tells us, "... it is difficult to find published studies in which intuition is superior to structured judgment". Highlighted terms, such as "structured judgment" in the preceding passage, indicate that there is a separate Dictionary entry for the term.
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Format: Hardcover
Throughout my career, it seemed every five years or so, I briefly strayed from risk analysis into a closely related field, such as weather reporting or stock picking, just to see what others were doing. Most recently, I won a jackpot in return for the effort. I read J.Scott Armstrong's "Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners."
Risk analysis has dealt more with subjects like natural and technological disasters. Business forecasting resembled risk analysis in several ways, but over the years, enterprise and capital markets accumulated much more extensive data. Social scientists studied the process of (and procedures for) forecasting with financial data intensively. Small wonder, as poor forecasting often led to costly disasters.
The authors wrote the Handbook in clear, coherent prose. It assembled 29 articles by 40 leading experts into an excellent book with 18 chapters. Armstrong, the editor (and clearly the instigator) created a hierarchical framework that described the relationships between different kinds of forecasting information, beginning with either judgmental or statistical sources. "Principles of Forecasting" illustrated this framework in an often repeated diagram.
The framework contributed to a coherent structure. Each chapter described one compartment within the framework. Each had an introduction that described the limitations and uses of a source of data used by forecasters. Each article also started with an abstract. Thus, a reader could quickly survey all of forecasting by skimming through the Handbook and reading either the article abstracts or the chapter introductions.
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Format: Hardcover
Principles of Forecasting is not a collection of articles describing basic forecasting methods. Instead, 40 authors have used a common format of identifying if-then principles and the support for those principles. Some other common formats of the chapters are: (1) limitations (2) implications for practitioners (3) implications for researchers.
The final chapter of this book contains 139 forecasting principles...
An example of a forecasting principle is: “13.25 Use multiple measures of accuracy”. A primary use for such principles would be as checklists for software developers, researchers, and practitioners to be sure that their work is complete to this level of detail. These are important general principles. Forecasters will need to use other references for the details of forecasting methods.
The Web site for this book is a very valuable resource for forecasters. Some of the resources are: (1) forecasting dictionary [Enter a forecasting term and the Web site returns a definition.] (2) links to forecasting software sites (3) links to forecasting books and reviews (3) links to bibliographies, abstracts, and (for subscribers) full text papers (4) links to conferences on forecasting (5) links to Web sites related to forecasting.
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Format: Paperback
The book is a collection of articles, in which 40 leading experts takes up the challenge of detailed identification principles of forecasting.
Clear and logical structure, synthetic approach to the subject and the practical knowledge make manual powininen be compulsory volume in the library of every self-respecting forecaster. And not just those who deal with short-term forecasting.

This textbook is a mine of practical knowledge for studetnów, practitioners and theoreticians forecasting. Special words of appreciation to the editor Professor J. Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, a man with a real passion of forecasting.
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