Customer Reviews

Probability Demystified

5 star:		(3)
4 star:		(1)
3 star:		(0)
2 star:		(0)
1 star:		(2)

 

 

I'm a college graduate who never took statistics or probability in college (not a required course). I recently encountered the need to understand probabilities and the peculiar notations. I found Probability Demystified to exactly fit my needs. It explains each concept clearly and illuminated by seemingly dozens of examples presented as problems and solutions. The examples are very clear and more than enough to test your understanding. The descriptions are so clear the author did not need to rely on "heavy" math to explain the concepts. For the foundation topics, the examples typically involve coin tosses, die rolls or drawing a card from a deck of playing cards, which make the questions very easy to understand. For more complex concepts the questions are still clear.
After developing the basics on calculating probability, it covers several fundamental probability distributions (Binomial, Multinomial, Normal, Poisson, Geometric, and Hypergeometric). Then it explains the basics about how to use the Monte Carlo simulation method, Game Theory, and Actuarial Science (insurance). The book also usually provides brief historical background descriptions, which I found interesting. I found once I understood a topic, I could summarize the topic on a 3"x3" Post-It note (I use them like tabs in the pages of the book) to quickly remember the concept.

Incidentally, I also purchased Cartoon Guide to Statistics, which I appreciated for its brevity, but found myself a bit lost in the notation when it reached probability distributions. Probability Demystified explains it better and was just what I needed.

One of the other reviewers harshly criticized the book for having errors in some examples. Frankly, I don't care. I didn't need to do more than a couple of problems per topic. There are so many examples (and solutions) for each topic, the student can generally tell when there is an error. The important thing is, does the book teach? It does, and efficiently too. I read most of it (up through Normal Distributions) in less than a day.

I find this book one of the simplest books that help to explain the elementary of the probablity theory. The auther used very easy examples along with solved problems to explain the basics of probability. Applications of probability theory like Simulation, Game theory, and actuarial science have been addressed in a very simple way. If you are searching for the simplest book to understand probability, this book, for sure, will be your primer choice.

The book contains nothing new or unique. The numerous errors support my opinion that this book should be pulled from the shelves, edited, and rewritten. Why doesn't the publisher issue an errata sheet? One of many examples of obvious errors is the table on page 188, only two of the 9 cells contain accurate information. Don't buy.

My husband is trying to become an acutary and this book really helped it. It was a gift I gave him and he was able to read and understand it even while only reading a few pages a day.

Actually, this book is well written and will give the reader a BASIC understanding of probability and I mean basic as long as the reader does not delve to deeply into the provided calculation examples. The problem is the author has several calculation errors in the book, especially in Chapter 4. Very Frustrating and disappointing. Save your Money....

I give it 3.5/5
The content is clear with many examples and many work arounds. A beginner could grasp all the content pretty fast. Not that deep but gets you ready for the next level pretty fast. In addition it's easy to find basic probability things if you need to.