Automotive Holiday Deals Books Gift Guide Books Gift Guide Shop Men's Athletic Shoes Learn more nav_sap_SWP_6M_fly_beacon Ty Dolla Sign egg_2015 All-New Amazon Fire TV Grocery Gifts Under $50 Amazon Gift Card Offer bf15 bf15 bf15 $30 Off Amazon Echo $30 Off Fire HD 6 Kindle Black Friday Deals Outdoor Deals on DOTD
Probability Theory: The Logic of Science and over one million other books are available for Amazon Kindle. Learn more

Enter your mobile number or email address below and we'll send you a link to download the free Kindle App. Then you can start reading Kindle books on your smartphone, tablet, or computer - no Kindle device required.

  • Apple
  • Android
  • Windows Phone
  • Android

To get the free app, enter your email address or mobile phone number.

Probability Theory: The Logic of Science 1st Edition

31 customer reviews
ISBN-13: 978-0521592710
ISBN-10: 0521592712
Why is ISBN important?
This bar-code number lets you verify that you're getting exactly the right version or edition of a book. The 13-digit and 10-digit formats both work.
Scan an ISBN with your phone
Use the Amazon App to scan ISBNs and compare prices.
Sell yours for a Gift Card
We'll buy it for $53.11
Learn More
Trade in now
Have one to sell? Sell on Amazon
Rent On clicking this link, a new layer will be open
$33.18 On clicking this link, a new layer will be open
Buy new On clicking this link, a new layer will be open
$82.95 On clicking this link, a new layer will be open
More Buying Choices
36 New from $80.87 28 Used from $85.00
Free Two-Day Shipping for College Students with Amazon Student Free%20Two-Day%20Shipping%20for%20College%20Students%20with%20Amazon%20Student

Get Up to 80% Back Rent Textbooks
$82.95 FREE Shipping. In Stock. Ships from and sold by Gift-wrap available.

Frequently Bought Together

  • Probability Theory: The Logic of Science
  • +
  • Causality: Models, Reasoning and Inference
Total price: $132.69
Buy the selected items together

Special Offers and Product Promotions

  • Take an Extra 30% Off Any Book: Use promo code HOLIDAY30 at checkout to get an extra 30% off any book for a limited time. Excludes Kindle eBooks and Audible Audiobooks. Restrictions apply. Learn more

Editorial Reviews


"...tantalizing of the most useful and least familiar applications of Bayesian theory...Probability Theory [is] considerably more entertaining reading than the average statistics textbook...the conceptual points that underlie his attacks are often right on."

"This is a work written by a scientist for scientists. As such it is to be welcomed. The reader will certainly find things with which he disagrees, but he will also find much that will cause him to think deeply not only on his usual practice by also on statistics and probability in general. Probability Theory: the Logic of Science is, for both statisticians and scientists, more than just 'recommended reading': it should be prescribed."
Mathematical Reviews

"...the rewards of reading Probability Theory can be immense."
Physics Today, Ralph Baierlein

“This is not an ordinary text. It is an unabashed, hard sell of the Bayesian approach to statistics. It is wonderfully down to earth, with hundreds of telling examples. Everyone who is interested in the problems or applications of statistics should have a serious look.”

"[T]he author thinks for himself...and writes in a lively way about all sorts of things. It is worth dipping into it if only for vivid expressions of opinion...There are many books on Bayesian statistics, but few with this much color."
Notices of the AMS

Book Description

Going beyond the conventional mathematics of probability theory, this study views the subject in a wider context. It discusses new results, along with applications of probability theory to a variety of problems. The book contains many exercises and is suitable for use as a textbook on graduate level courses involving data analysis. Aimed at readers already familiar with applied mathematics at an advanced undergraduate level or higher, it is of interest to scientists concerned with inference from incomplete information.

Hero Quick Promo
Holiday Deals in Kindle Books
Save up to 85% on more than 1,000 Kindle Books. These deals are valid until November 30, 2015. Learn more

Product Details

  • Hardcover: 753 pages
  • Publisher: Cambridge University Press; 1 edition (June 9, 2003)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0521592712
  • ISBN-13: 978-0521592710
  • Product Dimensions: 6.8 x 1.5 x 9.7 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 3.5 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
  • Average Customer Review: 4.8 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (31 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #218,295 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

More About the Author

Discover books, learn about writers, read author blogs, and more.

Customer Reviews

5 star
4 star
3 star
2 star
1 star
See all 31 customer reviews
Share your thoughts with other customers

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

188 of 191 people found the following review helpful By Kevin S. Van Horn on August 28, 2003
Format: Hardcover
Reading this book is an exhilarating intellectual adventure. I found that it shed light on many mysteries and answered questions that had long troubled me. It contains the clearest exposition of the fundamentals of probability theory that I have ever encountered, and its chatty style is a pleasure to read. Jaynes the teacher collaborates fully with Jaynes the scientist in this book, and at times you feel as if the author is standing before you at the blackboard, chalk in hand, giving you a private lesson. Jaynes's advice on avoiding errors in the application of probability theory -- reinforced in many examples throughout the book -- is by itself well worth the price of the book.
If you deal at all with probability theory, statistics, data analysis, pattern recognition, automated diagnosis -- in short, any form of reasoning from inconclusive or uncertain information -- you need to read this book. It will give you new perspectives on these problems.
The downside to the book is that Jaynes died before he had a chance to finish it, and the editor, although capable and qualified to fill in the missing pieces, was understandably unwilling to inject himself into Jaynes's book. One result is that the quality of exposition suffers in some of the later chapters; furthermore, the author is not in a position to issue errata to correct various minor errors. Volunteer efforts are underway to remedy these problems -- those who buy the book may want to visit the "Unofficial Errata and Commentary" website for it, or check out the etjaynesstudy mailing list at Yahoo groups.
2 Comments Was this review helpful to you? Yes No Sending feedback...
Thank you for your feedback.
Sorry, we failed to record your vote. Please try again
Report abuse
100 of 103 people found the following review helpful By brainowner on June 27, 2003
Format: Hardcover
This book has been on the web in unfinished form for a number of years and has shaped my scientific thinking more than any other book. I believe it constitutes one of the most important scientific texts of the last hundred years. It convincingly shows that "statistics", "statistical inference", "Bayesian inference", "probability theory", "maximum entropy methods" , and "statistical mechanics" are all parts of a large coherent theory that is the unique consistent extension of logic to propositions that have degrees of plausibility attached to them. This is already a theoretical accomplishment of epic proportions. But in addition, the book shows how one actually solves real world problems within this frame work, and in doing so shows what a vastly wider array of problems is addressable within this frame work than in any of the forementioned particular fields.
If you work in any field where on needs to "reason with incomplete information" this book is invaluable.
As others have already mentioned, Jaynes never finished this book. The editor decided to "fill in" the missing parts by putting excercises that, when finished by the reader, provide what (so the editor guesses) Jaynes left out. I find this solution a bit disappointing. The excercises don't take away the impression that holes are left in the text. It would have been better if the editor had written the missing parts and then printed those in different font so as to indicate that these parts were not written by Jaynes. Better still would have been if the editor had invited researchers that are intimately familiar with Jaynes' work and the topic of each of the missing pieces to submit text for the missing pieces.
Read more ›
2 Comments Was this review helpful to you? Yes No Sending feedback...
Thank you for your feedback.
Sorry, we failed to record your vote. Please try again
Report abuse
71 of 73 people found the following review helpful By Neal Alexander on May 9, 2005
Format: Hardcover
From a few common sense requirements, the books starts by deriving basic results such as the product and sum rules, for probabilities defined not in terms of frequencies, but as degrees of plausibility. This was an eye-opener for me, having imbibed the common attitude that such probabilities are 'subjective' and, implicitly, lacking rigor and utility.

Jaynes' knowledge of the history and philosophy of statistics is far deeper than that of most statisticians (including myself). His trenchant style gives the book a narrative drive and cover-to-cover readability that, in my experience, is unique in the field. One such strand is the continual battle between his respect for RA Fisher's abilities, and his exasperation at how wrongheadedly he feels they were channelled. And he doesn't hesitate to take on philosophical heavyweights such as Hume in defending the possibility - - in fact, the necessity - - of inductive inference. However, this style also produces some more bitter fruit, such as the way the author repeatedly likens himself to historical victims of religious persecution.

The book weakens when it turns to applications. Regression with errors in both variables is said to be 'the most common problem of inference faced by experimental scientists' who have 'searched the statistical literature in vain for help on this'. Good points. So why don't the author and editor give us at least a reference for just one of the 'correct solutions' which 'adapt effortlessly' to scientists' needs? And Jaynes' argument that the null hypothesis procedure 'saws off its own limb' would also rule out mathematical proof by reductio ad absurdum.

When estimating periodicities, we're told that 'the eyeball is a more reliable indicator of an effect than an orthodox equal-tails test'.
Read more ›
2 Comments Was this review helpful to you? Yes No Sending feedback...
Thank you for your feedback.
Sorry, we failed to record your vote. Please try again
Report abuse

Most Recent Customer Reviews

Set up an Amazon Giveaway

Amazon Giveaway allows you to run promotional giveaways in order to create buzz, reward your audience, and attract new followers and customers. Learn more
Probability Theory: The Logic of Science
This item: Probability Theory: The Logic of Science
Price: $82.95
Ships from and sold by

Want to discover more products? Check out these pages to see more: logic and type theory, feller probability, theory of nonsense, statistics and probability