Probable Tomorrows: How Science and Technology Will Transform Our Lives in the Next Twenty Years [Hardcover]

Marvin Cetron (Author), Owen Davies (Author)

Book Description

ISBN-10: 0312154291 | ISBN-13: 978-0312154295 | Publication Date: May 15, 1997 | Edition: 1

A fascinating look at near-future advances, inventions, products, services, and everyday conveniences that will change how we live and work. Marvin Cetron and Owen Davies explore these changes and the impact they will have on everyday life. For example, by the year 2010:

-Personal computers will offer the power of today's supermachines and artificial intelligence.
-A telecommunications network will supply the world with services from the contents of the Library of Congress to pornographic videos in Cantonese.
-The United States-reversing a decades-old trend-will link its major cities with hig-speed railroads.
-Airplanes will be capable of leaping halfway around the world in just two hours.
-Consumer goods will be produced at prices so low the poor of tomorrow could live as well as the rich of today.
-Scientists will have learned to purge the air of pollution, closing up the Antarctic ozone hole and ending the threat of global warming.
-Heavy industries can move into space, so that Earth can recover from our past environmental follies.
-Dramatic advances in gene mapping and organ transplants will extend the healthy human life span well beyond the century mark.

Science and technology have dominated life in developed countries since the Industrial Revolution. In the twenty-first century, the will change it almost beyond recognition. Probable Tomorrows tells us how.

Editorial Reviews

Review

"Dr. Cetron and Mr. Davies offer an overview of the changes that will transform the United States by the twenty-first century." --The New York Times

"[As] reassuring a look at tomorrow as anything you'll read anywhere." --USA Today

"A picture of a vibrant America surging into the next century, with benefits for all of us." --The Wall Street Journal

"A testament to scientific and analytical forecasting." --Atlanta Journal-Constitution

About the Author

Marvin Cetron is founder and president of Forecasting International and has consulted to over half of the Fortune 500 companies in the U.S. and to various government agencies here and abroad. He lives in Virginia.

Owen Davies is a former senior editor at Omni magazine and a freelance writer specializing in science, technology, and the future. He lives in New Hampshire.

Together, they are the authors of Crystal Globe, Educational Renaissance, and American Renaissance.

See all Editorial Reviews

Product Details

• Hardcover: 352 pages
• Publisher: St. Martin's Press; 1 edition (May 15, 1997)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0312154291
• ISBN-13: 978-0312154295
• Product Dimensions: 9.6 x 6.4 x 1 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.4 pounds
• Average Customer Review: 3.8 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (5 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #2,812,564 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

13 of 13 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Its The Technology, Stupid!, August 31, 2000

By 

George Bullard "Strategic Leadership Coach" (Columbia, SC, USA) - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   

This review is from: Probable Tomorrows: How Science and Technology Will Transform Our Lives in the Next Twenty Years (Hardcover)

This book is about science and technology, with an emphasis and interest from my perspective on the technology.

Here are seven things I was drawn to that this book points out. First, new technologies arrive first in war. Second, the convergence of computers, telephones, and everything digital is taking place. Third, artificial intelligence makes possible analysis never before possible. Fourth, the availability of information through the Internet is coming with great ease. Fifth, attendance is increasing at meetings announced on the Internet. Sixth, regular, global communciation is happening on the Internet. Seventh, the discovery to delivery time is collapsing.

These seven statements came out in this book published three years ago, but probably written four years ago. How true are they today? Very true, but already way down the road in several of the areas. How much progress have we already made in some of these areas? A lot!

So, that makes the greatest current day value of this book to be one of understanding the rate and pace of change, and understanding the predictability or unpredictability of the future from a recent history perspective.

As a solid work on the future of science and technology, I commend this book as one to still read to understand the way we can continue to frame and anticipate the future through creative, cutting edge, futures research and in-depth thinking.

13 of 14 people found the following review helpful:

3.0 out of 5 stars Conservative, but very readable, November 18, 1998

By 

G. DeRome "minister-of-truth" (Greendale, USA) - See all my reviews
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This review is from: Probable Tomorrows: How Science and Technology Will Transform Our Lives in the Next Twenty Years (Hardcover)

The authors explore the usual catagories of futurism: medicine, transportation, comunication, etc. Most of their predictions are fairly conservative. Where I found the most interest and actually got a "Wow!" was in their predictions of medical advancements in the next twenty years. If their predictions about cancer treatment, gene replacement, and hormone replacement therapy come true, our lives really will be changed in significant ways.

Although, as I said, most of what they predict is not all that astounding, I found the book very readable and enjoyable. It was much better than "2025."

5 of 5 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Insightful!, August 24, 2001

By 

Rolf Dobelli "getAbstract" (Switzerland) - See all my reviews
(HALL OF FAME REVIEWER)    (TOP 500 REVIEWER)    (REAL NAME)   

This review is from: Probable Tomorrows: How Science and Technology Will Transform Our Lives in the Next Twenty Years (Hardcover)

Authors Marvin Cetron and Owen Davies examine anticipated trends in technology over the next 15 to 20 years. They categorize their studies under digital systems, the Internet, high-tech materials, nanotechnology, transportation, space, energy, medicine and environmental remediation. They examine specific technological proposals and estimate their chances for success within the next two decades. An appendix lists specific predictions and the probability that each will come to pass. The book is necessarily superficial, since it covers such a broad range of topics. Unavoidably, some predictions are already somewhat dated, particularly those about industries that undergo constant, rapid change, such as medicine, computers and the Internet. However, the book provides a thorough survey of the range of technologies that are under study and development. This book is a rich source of ideas and makes interesting connections among disparate technologies. We [...] recommend the book to all corporate planners, trend-researchers and long-term thinkers.