Customer Reviews

Probable Tomorrows: How Science and Technology Will Transform Our Lives in the Next Twenty Years

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This book is about science and technology, with an emphasis and interest from my perspective on the technology.

Here are seven things I was drawn to that this book points out. First, new technologies arrive first in war. Second, the convergence of computers, telephones, and everything digital is taking place. Third, artificial intelligence makes possible analysis never before possible. Fourth, the availability of information through the Internet is coming with great ease. Fifth, attendance is increasing at meetings announced on the Internet. Sixth, regular, global communciation is happening on the Internet. Seventh, the discovery to delivery time is collapsing.

These seven statements came out in this book published three years ago, but probably written four years ago. How true are they today? Very true, but already way down the road in several of the areas. How much progress have we already made in some of these areas? A lot!

So, that makes the greatest current day value of this book to be one of understanding the rate and pace of change, and understanding the predictability or unpredictability of the future from a recent history perspective.

As a solid work on the future of science and technology, I commend this book as one to still read to understand the way we can continue to frame and anticipate the future through creative, cutting edge, futures research and in-depth thinking.

The authors explore the usual catagories of futurism: medicine, transportation, comunication, etc. Most of their predictions are fairly conservative. Where I found the most interest and actually got a "Wow!" was in their predictions of medical advancements in the next twenty years. If their predictions about cancer treatment, gene replacement, and hormone replacement therapy come true, our lives really will be changed in significant ways.

Although, as I said, most of what they predict is not all that astounding, I found the book very readable and enjoyable. It was much better than "2025."

Authors Marvin Cetron and Owen Davies examine anticipated trends in technology over the next 15 to 20 years. They categorize their studies under digital systems, the Internet, high-tech materials, nanotechnology, transportation, space, energy, medicine and environmental remediation. They examine specific technological proposals and estimate their chances for success within the next two decades. An appendix lists specific predictions and the probability that each will come to pass. The book is necessarily superficial, since it covers such a broad range of topics. Unavoidably, some predictions are already somewhat dated, particularly those about industries that undergo constant, rapid change, such as medicine, computers and the Internet. However, the book provides a thorough survey of the range of technologies that are under study and development. This book is a rich source of ideas and makes interesting connections among disparate technologies. We [...] recommend the book to all corporate planners, trend-researchers and long-term thinkers.

and taking directions from someone in the back seat looking out the back window. That's one definition of forecasting. Despite the hazards, the authors bravely predict what is going to happen with some very interesting developments in the business world.

Probable Tomorrows was interesting to read since it was written in 1997 and made some predictions for "today" that we can use as a benchmark for accuracy. And all in all, the predictions were good. The tables at the end of the book, and the timeline for changes can be used to help us see what we might need to do to update our company strategies (as outlined in a recent book e-Strategy).

Some of the topics discussed here were expanded upon in the futuristic book The Age of Spiritual Machines by Ray Kurzweil. Between these two books, a broad brush look at what we are in store for emerges and may indeed give us some hints on how to formulate business strategy to take us into the future. Overall, I would rate this book a 3 out of 5. It was well written and easy to read, but books that attempt to forecast the future are qickly dated.

I've read this book only half so far, but I tell even Siskel and Ebert would give this book 2 thumbs up I think..My opinion. I'm probably the only person in the Netherlands Antilles who bought this book. i'm honored to had bought it. I highly recommend it !!!