Customer Reviews

How Professional Gamblers Beat the Pro Football Pointspread

5 star:		(3)
4 star:		(1)
3 star:		(1)
2 star:		(0)
1 star:		(2)

 

 

You look for a book with information about betting? You are in a good place. However, this book is not worth +$20. It is worth ten times it.

No matter if you are a begginer or you make a living off betting - you should read this book. J.R Miller has over twenty year experience and you might be sure every single piece of information included in this book is a great help for your betting career.

Have you ever wondered how bookmakers set the lines or how they balance the book in order to earn? With this book you will learn a lot of details about work of sports book. Without these information you are like a soldier without a weapon. You must understand your opponent in order to beat him.

What factors are most important when you make your every day bet- selection process ? Is it teams' motivation, mental approach, statistics? With this book you find out a lot about every of these factors and you will be able to compute them into one succesfull winning proces.

You have always thought, a good punter is a punter with a high yield (ROI) ? Frankly, I do not care about yield and neither does J.R Miller. It is better to have 1200 selections with 5% ROI than back 4 super-bankers a week and achieve 25% yield. Why? because it is about making money. Paramethers are only on paper. What you should care of is money. And not hit rate, not yield, but earned units/profit is the single important rate. It is very simple, is not it? But try asking this question people familiar with betting and note how many care more about yield than profit(!). You should grind with 1% of bank to spread a risk - not make a little number if bets with well-looking yield. If you fell you have 1% or 2% Expected Value in a particular bet - place a bet. Do not look for bankers, for great valuebets - take everything you have an edge over bookmaker. In a long term it brings you low yield but a lot of money.

There is great chapter about money managament. It is worth this 25 bucks itself. It exlains a term of plateu and describes how strongly it influences your profitability.

My favourtie chapter, however is about Winning Percentages. It deals with short-term and long-term results. How many bets you are likely to hit in you next 10 bets if your winning rate is 6?
You would be suprised how LITTLE is probability of hitting exactly six. Yes, it is the most probable outcome but it is very low. You can go 3/10 with similiar probablity.

This chapter deals with the issues that turn a good punter (with solid selections and proper money managament scheme) into real bookie busher who rides through losing streaks without any harm , spend easy-earned money anywhere he wants and he has no doubts about the selections he makes.

With good theoretical backround you will learn that betting has more in common with investing than stock exchange.

And if you wonder if it is for US punters exclusively - my qucikly reply is: "it is not". I bet on only on European Soccer and MIller's book was one of my major sources of windsom in this field.

Miller's book is interesting, and mathematically sound. Some of the angles are new, and they present a different slant to a perplexing challenge.

A look at one particular player's methodology in the past to bet on the NFL, and to sell selections, of course.

I would have to rank this book in the bottom 3 of the books I've read on sports betting. JR himself isn't even a legitimate professional gambler, he's just a writer who happens to sell mediocre, long term losing plays on his website. The math method he describes in chapter two is worthless, he claims that that simple method will hit 54% against the spread but it's not true. You won't hit anything higher than 50% using that method.

Miller has very little understanding of proper bankroll growth, especially in regards to the kelly criterion. The true title of this book should read, "how amateur gamblers flip coins against the pointspread"

I don't know why this book would get bad reveiws? I gess some people can't do simple math! You can't find A better reference on betting football than JR Miller. Why not take the advice of someone who has been doing this for 25+ years! I would put this book number one for betting football!

While the fundamentals are here about how lines work and frequent scoring distributions and new fangled inventions such as online betting, what was missing is how to put together more comprehensive models. While it was nice that you needed to be an amateur psychologist to figure out teams, Miller doesn't expand into what things you would look for and how it would exactly affect betting.

I'm sure there has to be a more comprehensive text out there. If this book really does help you, you are probably reading it in a Las Vegas bus station after losing your car and shirt.

I agree that Miller's book is one of the best on Sports Betting (i.e. NFL) but the competition is rather weak. I would very much like to find some usefull or interesting texts on the topic.

After some reading I have decided to down grade Mr Miller's book a notch (to three stars but Amazon wont let me). I think "Stop Making Those Dumb Bets..." might be a better read.