Profiting from Uncertainty: Strategies for Succeeding No Matter What the Future Brings [Hardcover]

Paul J. H. Schoemaker (Author), Robert E. Gunther (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: July 2, 2002

What manager is not anxious about the future? We live in a white-knuckled age of rapid technological change and global instability. But uncertainty is not the enemy, says management expert Paul J. H. Schoemaker. It is where the greatest opportunities are. To unlock these opportunities, however, requires a very different approach to strategy and implementation. In this pioneering book, Dr. Schoemaker presents a systematic approach that combines concepts such as scenario planning, options thinking, and dynamic monitoring to create novel strategies for profiting from ambiguity.

Building on his experience with more than one hundred consulting projects in fields ranging from health care to manufacturing, from utilities to financial services, Schoemaker shows how major corporations throughout the world have used his pathbreaking methodology to prepare for an un-certain future and profit from it. In this first comprehensive approach to the subject, Schoemaker shows the reader (1) how to develop and analyze multiple industry scenarios, (2) craft nimble strategies with just the right amount of flexibility, (3) implement them using an options approach, and (4) make real-time adjustments through dynamic monitoring. As a leading academic thinker and practitioner, the author draws on the frontiers of decision science, organization theory, strategy, and cognitive psychology to integrate the most practical contributions these various fields have made to navigating uncertainty.

One need only follow the news to see the risks of being unprepared for change. And yet the rewards for actively pursuing new opportunities are greater than ever. More than any other capability, skill in seizing initiatives in shifting, unpredictable circumstances is the key to success. Profiting from Uncertainty provides a road map to do just that.

Editorial Reviews

From Publishers Weekly

Like fossilized skeletons of species past, the carcasses of companies that failed to heed the shifting winds of change litter the landscape of the business world. Strategic planner Schoemaker presents various examples of blindered business outlooks in this guide to making the best of a rapidly changing world. As he freely admits, change is not manageable in the least and is often quite scary. "Uncertainty cannot be pinned down or coaxed into cages. It is only partly tamable, and we must learn to live with the beast." These are brave and true words, and it's to Schoemaker's credit that he states them up front. (Too many business gurus insist that everything can be planned for given a generous layout of consulting fees, of course and easily managed.) Schoemaker's point is that too many companies try to figure out the future by looking at the past (Cisco's sad story is a particularly telling example of this tendency). Of course, the book's litany of mistakes and don't-repeat-this case studies start to seem like just another way of looking backwards into the future. There is some valuable information here, though, as Schoemaker breaks down the scenario-building process and shows readers how to gaze into the crystal ball and plan for not just one, but multiple possible futures. He also addresses the importance of things like simply getting a company's higher-ups to listen to you. Although not groundbreaking, this is a worthy and useful reminder of the danger of resting on one's laurels.
Copyright 2002 Cahners Business Information, Inc.

Review

Hugh Courtney, Ph.D. McKinsey consultant and author of 20/20 Foresight Paul Schoemaker belongs to an extremely exclusive club -- the one for business authors who are both leading-edge practitioners and academic researchers. This extraordinary book offers eminently practical, yet theoretically pure, advice for managers in these uncertain times.

Professor Marvin Zonis Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago The title says it all...Schoemaker guides us through the uncertainties and anxieties that confound business post-dotcom/post-September 11/post-Enron/post-economic downturn. He shows how businesspeople can create scenarios that will make them prepared and how the prepared can exploit the opportunities inherent in an uncertain world.

Alberto Ibargüen Publisher, The Miami Herald This is the strategic equivalent of a good liberal arts education. It teaches you a broad-based approach that will keep you from being surprised by change.

Henry Hatch 47th Chief of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and Commanding General Paul Schoemaker describes a strategic process that will better prepare organizations for the future. This book is an invaluable guide for managers in both the public and private sectors.

See all Editorial Reviews

Product Details

• Hardcover: 288 pages
• Publisher: Free Press (July 2, 2002)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0743223284
• ISBN-13: 978-0743223287
• Product Dimensions: 9.6 x 6.3 x 1 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 4.5 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (2 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #739,977 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

6 of 7 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Best Strategy Book I Have Ever Read, March 1, 2009

By 

Dave Carpenter "Peak Performance Scholar" (Atlanta, GA) - See all my reviews
(VINE VOICE)   

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This review is from: Profiting from Uncertainty: Strategies for Succeeding No Matter What the Future Brings (Hardcover)

As a consultant, I have been working with companies in all kinds of industries on strategy issues for 25 years. During that time, I have been a prolific reader of books on the strategy process, as well as of books on strategies being used by leading companies. I am not sure how I missed this book when it was published seven years ago, but I am grateful that I finally learned about it as a result of a chance encounter with author Paul Schoemaker.

As I write this review, companies in all manner of industries face as much uncertainty as likely has ever existed in modern business times. Many a CEO has told me that they are struggling not only with problems of their company but also with unbelievable uncertainty as to both the overall economy and as to their industry. Ripple effects from other industries are causing all kinds of problems. Uncertainty reigns supreme.

Schoemaker writes about an approach to strategy development and planning that embraces the uncertainty, and he goes even further to encourage management to profit from uncertainty. I love the way his holistic approach weaves together strategy development best practices, decision theory, organizational behavior, and dynamic monitoring. Brilliant!

When written in the year following the 9/11 catastrophe, uncertainty was an important factor for management to consider and the author gives insightful examples of companies doing exactly that. But, in today's global meltdown, planning for uncertainty becomes an absolute necessity.

In a sense, this was a book written ahead of its time. But, you can expect to see more and more books emulating this gem over the next twelve to eighteen months. No need to wait for those books, this book is the pace setter.

The notion of planning for uncertainty is intellectually stimulating. Fortunately, Schoemaker writes very clearly with none of the pomposity so common to writing by many of the academically gifted. Concepts are well explained and thoughtfully illustrated. The organization of the material is first rate, and the editing a pleasure compared to the norm in today's business books.

This is one of the finest business books I have ever read. And, it certainly is a critical prescription for every executive struggling to deal with so much uncertainty, right in the middle of a downturn that I believe will turn out to be as severe as anything since the Great Depression.

I strongly recommend the book...and the implementation of the concepts set out by this brilliant strategist.

5 of 7 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Helpful review, October 8, 2002

By A Customer

This review is from: Profiting from Uncertainty: Strategies for Succeeding No Matter What the Future Brings (Hardcover)

The best thing going for this book is that it is in fact well-written not like most of the dreck in business books. The ideas here are not revolutionary and you're not likely to find anything you hadn't at least heard before. It does however organize all of these disparate thoughts and bring them together in a way to help motivate action.
Along the way I'd also recommend Tony Murphy's Achieving Business Value from IT as a book that effectively does the same thing -- organizes information well to help you move toward positive action and improving process and performance (as oppossed to strategy which is this books forte).