Customer Reviews

Progression Blackjack: Exposing the Card Counting Myth

5 star:		(14)
4 star:		(3)
3 star:		(3)
2 star:		(0)
1 star:		(13)

 

 

Recently I read this book and began to employ its system. I more than tripled my bankroll on two consecutive trips. Unfortunately, I quickly became convinced that this was nothing more than luck; after those two good wins, I proceeded to get killed nearly every time I sat down at the table. My observations lead me to believe that any progression system, including Dahl's, fails to account for double-down and split situations. Dahl claims that if you bet 10, win, bet 10, win, bet 15, lose then you have won $5 of the casino's money since you won $20 before losing $15. What happens when, on that $15 bet, you draw two 8s and have to split? What about when you double down on 11, draw a low card, and lose to the dealer's pat hand? Then you have lost the $20 that you won on the first two bets plus an additional $10. That is why this system will not work in the long run.

I then learned Carlson's Omega II count system, which is complicated but very powerful. It also has been proven to work mathematically, while countless computer simulations have shown that progression systems do not work. I would recommend Carlson's "Blackjack for Blood" for the serious player. Also, check out works by Frank Scoblete or Stanford Wong.

Dahl's whole system is based on the idea that, when you win a hand, you should let some of the winnings ride on your following bet. He says he's found that "luck runs in streaks." Of course that's nonsense. Any thoughtful person should realize that winning one hand of blackjack makes you no more or less likely to win the next. What's more, the whole system is explained in about three pages, and the rest of the book is fluff. If you play blackjack and don't want to count cards, make up your own progression system and have a good time. You'll do just as well without reading this worthless little book. Incidentally, I've just finished reading The World's Greatest Blackjack Book by Lance Humble. It's very insightful and pleasant to read. I recommend it highly for anyone who would like to broaden his knowledge of the game

This book is a [bad], it is based on the idea that you will have streaks of luck. Anyone who has ever taken a statistics course knows that in the long run these streaks even out and do not really exist. The strategy is also based on the fact that you need to win at least three hands in a row to start making more money. When the author fails to metion that every time you win two hands in a row and lose the next one then you end up winning less money than if you had just bet the same every time(and statistically you will win two hands in a row on average more than three). The book consists of exactly four pages of actual blackjack strategy and about 100 bitching about how bad card counting is. Dahl never even states that he has ever broken ahead in his life time playing blackjack, he never states that you will actually win using his method or that you have an actual statistical advantage over the house. Worst of all this method doesn't even have a statistical betting advantage over even bets. Dahl's strategy is like a donkey with a spinning wheel, no one knows where he got it and damned if he knows how to use it.

PS. The 5 star reviews must be done by him because anyone with a 4th grade education should realize this doesn't work.

Progression betting is not any better than any other bs betting scheme, and over time, the results will be the same. I guess this is a good way to not lose too much money, but over time, you will NOT come out ahead. The simple fact is the only way to beat the casino in the long run is to track cards. There are many simple card-tracking systems out there (eg, Hi-Lo, Hi-Opt I)that will allow you to win and still have fun playing. Reading this book proves to be a waste of time, when any other wack betting scheme you can think of is just as good as this ....

I am a casual BJ player and typically use Basic Strategy Rules. I only play BJ and gamble perhaps 4 times a year. I make my money at home and play BJ for fun. Card counting is so difficult for me and thus I find it impossible to enjoy the game. I could never seem to make any decent money until I read this book a few years ago and employed the incremental betting strategy. We just spent 5 days in Las Vegas and I won $1400 which is good for me. Frankly I only played BJ for 3 days and had sense enough to "color up" each time when my hot streak ended and I had won the money quickly. Besides the incremental betting I know winning and losing goes in cycles so I try to leave when I'm up. You CAN win at BJ in the short term but remember the longer you sit there-the more the laws of probability are at work and the more likely you are to give back whatever you've won....and probably more. For example, about 4 years ago in Las Vegas at a $25 table I won $2300 in about 5 minutes. I had been playing BJ for maybe an hour and was basically even...then I started winning hand after hand after hand. I was increasing my bets as I won and colored up $2300. However, the next day I lost $1000 and the next day I lost $600. I stopped playing altogether for that trip and took home $700. The laws of probability had kicked in. Incremental betting is a no brainer...you have to increase your bets when you get on a hot streak. How do you know when you are on a hot streak? It is not a science, you can't know with any certainty but if you've played enough BJ you can feel it...you can just tell and that is when you have to start placing bigger bets, splitting and doubling down properly. The Fibonacci sequence utilized in this book seemed a little too aggressive for me but at least reading Progression Blackjack gave me the confidence to increase my bets as I won. It is the only system that seems to work for me...but let me emphasize that walking away from the table after you've doubled or tripled your bankroll is just as important. 99.9% of BJ players will never make enough money to change their lifestyle. I play BJ to win but I also play BJ for fun. The lousy feeling of losing money is more painful than the satisfying feeling of winning.

Whether you are a card counter or progressive player, it is your betting strategy that allows you to preserve money, and make gains when appropriate. Online I see a lot of bantering between counters and progressive players. The truth is the combination of both theories makes the most sense. According to all the counting books, you would only increase your bets with the positive good counts; however, anyone who has played this game long enough realizes that you sometimes go on win streaks with bad counts, and lose your butt off on good counts due to large bets placed on the table. Remember although the counts are favorable, the dealer has a favorable chance of hitting blackjack also. On the other hand, progressive players depend on the streaks and don't take advantage of the count, because the theory tells the player to return all the way back to the beginning bet of the progression, instead of keeping your bet relatively higher to chance winning bigger money. The truth is I combine both. By using the method of progressive betting, you actually hide the fact that you are counting. Most casinos look for those big jumps in bets during good counts that tip off counters; however, by jumping to higher base bet progressions, one is able to progress rapidly without drawing negative attention to yourself from the pit bosses. I mostly win with this strategy, playing 2-3 hands at $100 each with a bankroll of $5000, with record high of $24,000 win in one session. Mostly aim at equalling my bankroll. I've won as much as $4000, with $50 base bets on 2 hands over 2 hours. You don't have to bet big to win. CAUTION: where the system may fail has to do with greed. If one gets too aggressive with the progression, and don't take back your winnings as this book has you do, then you may get caught not having the funds to back up your double-downs and splits. If you do count, have a favorable count, and put big bets on the table, you may end up losing your winnings that you progressively earned IF you have a bad losing streak...thus, cut your losses to minimum by returning back down to your 1 unit base bet. I would love to write a book on this strategy that I came up with...maybe in the future. If you really want to get good at the game, learn shuffle tracking.

I spotted this nonsense book at a local bookstore and scanned through it for a good laugh.

Let me save the suspense: Dahl's strategy is basically this: increase your bet while you're winning, lower your bet while you're losing. Sounds great doesn't it? I bet his investment advice is "buy low, sell high".

This strategy is about the quickest way to lose your money short of using the Martingale system. Unless you believe in hot streaks and luck (in which case, just bring your rabbit's foot with you), this progression playing is a bunch of mumbo-jumbo.

Not only is this system bad for any casino game, it's actually worse for blackjack, because after you win a hand in blackjack, you're actually slightly *less* likely to win the next hand. If you want to understand why, go get a real blackjack book (I recommend 'Blackbelt in Blackjack' by Arnold Snyder). Yes, you can count cards with an 8-deck shoe, and professionals do it all the time.

Forget those reviews that say "I used this system and won $XXXX over a weekend". A weekend is nothing! Play for 1,000 hours and then report back. Don't forget to add the money you wasted on this book in your losses.

Not wanting to count cards in a 6 deck shoe, this book offers an alternative to card counting. Some other reviewers don't think that the progression system makes any sense, but think about it. When the deck is in your favor you will more likely win more hands. The progression system leads you to bet more when you win more.

My experience is that for ~92% of the time, the deck is neutral, and the good basic strategy Dahl teaches keeps me from losing too much money. ~4% of the time I'll lose several hands in a row and I'll sit out the rest of the shoe. ~4% of the time the shoe is decidedly in my favor, and the betting progression system makes a lot of money very quickly. I played about 12 hours of blackjack in Vegas last weekend using the strategies in this book and left with quite a bit of the casino's money.

The book is short, no doubt. But that made it easy for me to learn and use. The World's Greatest Blackjack Book, while a great read, is too much to memorize, and requires more precision focus than I can maintain for four hours of play.

Give this book a chance, and see which strategy (progression or counting) you can honestly use correctly in a casino.

I can't stress enough how unnecessary this book is. Everything true in this book (the basic strategy) comes from other sources, and his twist (the progression betting) is complete crap. Don't let me tell you, it is a proven mathematical fact : FOR ANY EVEN GAME, ANY BETTING SYSTEM LEADS TO THE SAME RESULTS. THEREFORE, NO PROGRESSION IS BETTER THAN ANY OTHER BETTING SCHEME. You will get the same results with flat betting or any other bs concoction you can think up of. If you are capable of writing a computer program, create a program to simulate coin flipping a few million times, use dahl's progression, a flat betting scheme, and a few others. You will soon see that they all converge to the same answer. When Dahl realized that he couldn't beat the house blackjack advantage, he wrote this book instead.

I wouldn't be surprised if this book was written by casino staff. This system makes no sense logically, and will inevitably fail. Do not waste your money on this book. There are plenty of real, mathematically valid, card counting books to invest in. Pay for quality and avoid this trash.