Quantitative Risk Analysis: A Guide to Monte Carlo Simulation Modelling [Hardcover]

David Vose (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: December 1996 | ISBN-10: 0471958034 | ISBN-13: 978-0471958031 | Edition: 1

This book concentrates on the accuracy of risk modelling rather than the management of risk analysis. It provides a comprehensive guide to modelling of uncertainty using spreadsheets and Monte Carlo software on standard PCs. It includes sufficient probability and statistics theory and provides the basic information necessary for a simple risk analysis model.

Editorial Reviews

From the Publisher

Based entirely on proven techniques, this superb guide is designed for those who do computer modelling. Stressing the accuracy of risk modelling rather than the management of risk analysis, it provides excellent guidelines for modelling uncertainty using spreadsheets and Monte Carlo software. Features sufficient probability and statistics theory for readers to be confident of the correctness of the methods and understand when and how the theories can be used. Includes scores of graphs, charts, practical exercises and model solutions.

Product Details

• Hardcover: 340 pages
• Publisher: John Wiley & Sons; 1 edition (December 1996)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0471958034
• ISBN-13: 978-0471958031
• Product Dimensions: 9 x 6.1 x 1 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.1 pounds
• Average Customer Review: 4.2 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (5 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #2,808,578 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

22 of 26 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars A great primer and reference text for simulation modelling, September 2, 1997

By 

[e-mail] (Decisionalysis Risk Consulting. Canada) - See all my reviews

This review is from: Quantitative Risk Analysis: A Guide to Monte Carlo Simulation Modelling (Hardcover)

Whether you are attempting Monte Carlo simulation for the first time or have plenty of practical experience, Vose's book is the best text available.

Vose has done a great job providing a brief but solid introduction to probability and statistics. It also serves as a great practical reference for the details and applications of all of the commonly used probability distribution functions.

He expertly summarizes each of the main steps a modeller will face in developing a model, providing very practical examples with helpful figures illustrating exactly how to implement the example in a spreadsheet.

The introduction could be improved by describing the context of his book, largerly directed towards cost analysis of projects, in the very broad field of Quantiative Risk Analysis. If I could add a section to the book, I would devote a chapter to common errors committed by the novice modeller. Minor criticisms aside, I do not hesitate in recommending this book as a reference for experts. I think it provides the fastest route up the learning curve for the novice modeller.

6 of 9 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars An excellent guide and primer - clear and concise., August 17, 1997

By A Customer

This review is from: Quantitative Risk Analysis: A Guide to Monte Carlo Simulation Modelling (Hardcover)

This text provides an excellent primer for those interested in the field of Monte Carlo modelling, but without a strong background in mathematics/statistics. The text is extremely concise and well expressed, and leads the reader through each aspect of quantitative risk analysis without burdening him/her with unnecessary detail nor explanation.
I believe that this book will prove to be tremendously useful for all those approaching the subject of quantitative risk analysis, or those who wish to be able to better understand the results of analyses conducted by others. Sam Beckett, Massey University, New Zealand

2 of 4 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Highly Recommended!, August 19, 1997

By A Customer

This review is from: Quantitative Risk Analysis: A Guide to Monte Carlo Simulation Modelling (Hardcover)

The only "user friendly" text on this topic of which I am aware. The book is written in concise and understandable language and contains numerous examples, spreadsheets, charts and formulae that are essential to anyone that desires a working knowledge of risk analysis. Minor errors in the content detract
little from the value of this work