Randomness [Hardcover]

Deborah J. Bennett (Author)

Book Description

ISBN-10: 0674107454 | ISBN-13: 978-0674107458 | Publication Date: April 15, 1998 | Edition: 1

From the ancients' first readings of the innards of birds to your neighbor's last bout with the state lottery, humankind has put itself into the hands of chance. Today life itself may be at stake when probability comes into play--in the chance of a false negative in a medical test, in the reliability of DNA findings as legal evidence, or in the likelihood of passing on a deadly congenital disease--yet as few people as ever understand the odds. This book is aimed at the trouble with trying to learn about probability. A story of the misconceptions and difficulties civilization overcame in progressing toward probabilistic thinking, Randomness is also a skillful account of what makes the science of probability so daunting in our own day.

To acquire a (correct) intuition of chance is not easy to begin with, and moving from an intuitive sense to a formal notion of probability presents further problems. Author Deborah Bennett traces the path this process takes in an individual trying to come to grips with concepts of uncertainty and fairness, and also charts the parallel path by which societies have developed ideas about chance. Why, from ancient to modern times, have people resorted to chance in making decisions? Is a decision made by random choice "fair"? What role has gambling played in our understanding of chance? Why do some individuals and societies refuse to accept randomness at all? If understanding randomness is so important to probabilistic thinking, why do the experts disagree about what it really is? And why are our intuitions about chance almost always dead wrong?

Anyone who has puzzled over a probability conundrum is struck by the paradoxes and counterintuitive results that occur at a relatively simple level. Why this should be, and how it has been the case through the ages, for bumblers and brilliant mathematicians alike, is the entertaining and enlightening lesson of Randomness.

Editorial Reviews

Amazon.com Review

"Chance governs all," said Milton, but he was writing about hell, not statistical probability. In the modern world, we assume that Milton's hell is everywhere--that is, that fate is best described in terms of statistics, odds, risks, and randomness. But most people, even many scientists, find probability difficult to understand and often counter to common sense. Mathematician Deborah Bennett looks at the history of statistics, games of chance and the casting of lots, the "Monty Hall" problem, and sources of random numbers. "Every day we can see evidence that the human species does not yet have a very highly developed probabilistic sense." With more books like Bennett's, we may in time become better at it--chances are. --Mary Ellen Curtin

From Library Journal

The big philosophical questions are, "Do unpredictable events really occur by chance or is chance a measure of our ignorance?" and, "Does it matter which it is?" The practical question is, "How do you use a computer to systematically produce `random' numbers, for use in certain applications?" In this easy-to-read exposition, Bennett (mathematics, Jersey City State Coll.) touches on these questions as well as some history of society's interpretation of chance and its relationship to religious beliefs. The descriptions of the methodology of certain statisticians near the turn of the century is particularly noteworthy. Unfortunately, in making the material accessible to the lay reader, many of the interesting arguments and examples are either omitted or touched on too lightly. In particular, some of the mathematics might have been discussed in greater depth. This very short book would have been better had it been longer.?Harold D. Shane, Baruch College, CUNY
Copyright 1998 Reed Business Information, Inc.

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Product Details

• Hardcover: 256 pages
• Publisher: Harvard University Press; 1 edition (April 15, 1998)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0674107454
• ISBN-13: 978-0674107458
• Product Dimensions: 7 x 5.4 x 1 inches
• Shipping Weight: 13.4 ounces
• Average Customer Review: 4.2 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (20 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #1,339,599 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

18 of 18 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Beginners guide to randomness, statistics and probability, September 17, 2000

By 

Azlan Adnan - See all my reviews

This review is from: Randomness (Paperback)

In writing this beginner's guide to randomness, the author assumes that the reader's understanding of the concepts underlying statistics and probability is somewhat shaky as misconceptions abound, and certain concepts are particularly problematic. The author has, therefore, used lucid, expressive and entertaining language to clear up our misconceptions about this intrinsically fascinating branch of mathematics.

Used for seeking divine direction, decision-making and games, the practice of chance mechanisms have been discovered throughout Mesopotamia, the Indus valley, Egypt, Greece and the Roman Empire. Yet, probability was not seriously studied until the mid-17th century. Historians have long wondered why conceptual progress in this field was so slow, given that humans have encountered chance repeatedly from earliest times.

The answer lies in the difficulty of understanding randomness. Probability is based on the concept of a random event, and statistical inference is based on the distribution of random samples. Often, we assume that the concept of randomness is obvious. Yet, problems having to do with chance typically appear simple and amenable to solution with natural good sense, only to be proven otherwise. Over the course of 10 chapters, this book investigates a series of ideas central to the historical development of probabilistic thinking.

This book is highly recommended to anyone who is a total beginner when it comes to probability as it not only elucidates the reader on the subject, but also explains why probability is often counter-intuitive and hence desperately puzzling. Despite its abstruse nature, probability is a very useful tool and this book shows how it can be used to good effect. Filled with historical asides, this handy, pocket-sized book will clear up your misconceptions. Despite its easy-going conversational style, it is a thorough academic work with 50 pages of references, bibliography and the index.

Deborah J. Bennett (1950- ) is assistant professor of mathematics at Jersey City State College, New Jersey.

See also my review of: WHY FLIP A COIN? The Art and Science of Good Decisions H.W. Lewis John Wiley & Sons, Inc., August 1998 ISBN: 0-471-29645-7, Paperback, US$14.95, 206 pages

19 of 20 people found the following review helpful:

3.0 out of 5 stars good but frustrating, July 10, 2001

By A Customer

This review is from: Randomness (Paperback)

This is a great book for the short time that Bennett is talking about randomness. Unfortunately, that time is only about two chapters. Most of the book is dedicated to a history of how different cultures developed and applied randomizing techniques. The small bit of actual discussion of randomness was fascinating, and left me wondering why she decided to write a history book for the first 10 chapters.

13 of 13 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Worth reading, November 7, 1999

By 

Colin Mummery - See all my reviews

This review is from: Randomness (Hardcover)

There is some good stuff in this book and I'm glad I read it just to get a feel for the random nature of everyday life. However a large part of it is really about the history of statistical science and I found the style a touch too academic for a layman like myself who was more interested in getting to the heart of what probability is all about. I think guys like John Paulos and Devlin do a better job of getting across important concepts but I don't regret buying the book (which

incidentally comes in a strange hard to hold size, possibly to to make it seem longer)