Customer Reviews

Randomness

5 star:		(8)
4 star:		(9)
3 star:		(1)
2 star:		(2)
1 star:		(0)

 

 

In writing this beginner's guide to randomness, the author assumes that the reader's understanding of the concepts underlying statistics and probability is somewhat shaky as misconceptions abound, and certain concepts are particularly problematic. The author has, therefore, used lucid, expressive and entertaining language to clear up our misconceptions about this intrinsically fascinating branch of mathematics.

Used for seeking divine direction, decision-making and games, the practice of chance mechanisms have been discovered throughout Mesopotamia, the Indus valley, Egypt, Greece and the Roman Empire. Yet, probability was not seriously studied until the mid-17th century. Historians have long wondered why conceptual progress in this field was so slow, given that humans have encountered chance repeatedly from earliest times.

The answer lies in the difficulty of understanding randomness. Probability is based on the concept of a random event, and statistical inference is based on the distribution of random samples. Often, we assume that the concept of randomness is obvious. Yet, problems having to do with chance typically appear simple and amenable to solution with natural good sense, only to be proven otherwise. Over the course of 10 chapters, this book investigates a series of ideas central to the historical development of probabilistic thinking.

This book is highly recommended to anyone who is a total beginner when it comes to probability as it not only elucidates the reader on the subject, but also explains why probability is often counter-intuitive and hence desperately puzzling. Despite its abstruse nature, probability is a very useful tool and this book shows how it can be used to good effect. Filled with historical asides, this handy, pocket-sized book will clear up your misconceptions. Despite its easy-going conversational style, it is a thorough academic work with 50 pages of references, bibliography and the index.

Deborah J. Bennett (1950- ) is assistant professor of mathematics at Jersey City State College, New Jersey.

See also my review of: WHY FLIP A COIN? The Art and Science of Good Decisions H.W. Lewis John Wiley & Sons, Inc., August 1998 ISBN: 0-471-29645-7, Paperback, US$14.95, 206 pages

This is a great book for the short time that Bennett is talking about randomness. Unfortunately, that time is only about two chapters. Most of the book is dedicated to a history of how different cultures developed and applied randomizing techniques. The small bit of actual discussion of randomness was fascinating, and left me wondering why she decided to write a history book for the first 10 chapters.

There is some good stuff in this book and I'm glad I read it just to get a feel for the random nature of everyday life. However a large part of it is really about the history of statistical science and I found the style a touch too academic for a layman like myself who was more interested in getting to the heart of what probability is all about. I think guys like John Paulos and Devlin do a better job of getting across important concepts but I don't regret buying the book (which

incidentally comes in a strange hard to hold size, possibly to to make it seem longer)

Professor Bennett's book does many things well. In its short space it can not do each fully, but nonetheless, she does an excellent coverage of history, philosophy, and applications. Although this is not the ideal book for learning to do probability, I suspect many students would find it helpful. As she herself demonstrates if you have not studied probability, you are doomed to misunderstand it even if you are otherwise mathematically sophisticated. Consequently, this book is ideal as an introduction to the subject for people at all levels. (For those who want to learn to do probability calculations, I would recommend two books. If you have not had calculus you might try the book by Samuel Goldberg. For those with calculus, I would suggest either the book "Probability for Engineers and Scientists" by R. W. Hamming or the book "Introduction to Probability Models" by Sheldon Ross.)

Like some previous reviewers, I read "Randomness" because of references in Nicholas Taleb's book "Fooled by Randomness." Although Taleb focused on the last chapter, "Paradoxes in Probability," the bulk of Bennett's book is a popular history and development of probability theory from scientific, mathematical and philosophical perspectives.

Although not as full of puzzles like the "Monte Hall" problem as expected, the unintuitive nature of determining probabilities is illustrated quite well by going over the intellectual development of the field. If you want an understanding of probability and why it is often so hard, "Randomness" is a great place to start.

Probability is the least intuitive of the branches of math. People believe all sorts of incorrect ideas about how probability works, i.e. gambler's fallacy. 'Randomness' approaches the subject in an understandable way, avoiding some of the micro details that a textbook would get into. The book also goes into some of the history of thinking about probablity. For example, for years it was thought that throwing dice, drawing lots, etc. those outcomes represented the will of God. I think this book has things of interest for nearly everyone, from expert to layman.

This book is a mixture of mathematical history and basic statistics and probability with examples of their use. Bennett writes lucidly and succinctly. I would have liked to see some topics, such as paradoxes of probability (e.g. the Simpson's paradox) explained in greater detail. Sometimes the book tackles a topic very briefly and then drops it rather abruptly. As a result, it may be difficult to grasp the importance of a topic and to see the connection between topics. All in all, however, the book is a very good reference manual for a beginner. This is essentially a handy long encyclopedia article on a fascinating and important subject.

I've been reading a lot of books like this recently but this one seemed very well balanced. Other books that you might think are about "randomness" are about Wall St. psychology or medical diagnoses or are standard dull opaque textbooks. This book is quite readable and is about general topics involving randomness, as advertised by the title. A book like this can't go into excruciating details about things like Kolmogorov complexity, but it is mentioned and even explained. I rather liked that it didn't get bogged down with formulas and proofs. Instead it tried to make the whole pursuit of statistics and probability interesting by following along the path of human technological development. By giving some historical context to the various developments in how people have thought about randomness, it's easier to see *why* any of it matters. I think this would be a good book to read just before taking a statistics class if you are actually interested in statistics. After reading this book, the cold mathematical treatment of a statistics textbook would be more likely to reveal the true nature of randomness, as a topic that is actually profoundly interesting.

This small, short book covers the history of probabilistic thinking and provides a readable introduction to probability and randomness. It begins very simply with a description of early randomizers like dice and a discussion of the basics of probability, progresses through the first serious studies of the subject from roughly 1500 to 1800, and ends with more advanced philosophical questions like how randomness is defined and whether or not it exists. Along the way the author discusses why people have used chance to make decisions and the fairness of such decisions, the role of gambling in our understanding of probability, why some reject the concept of random chance, and why probability is so counter-intuitive.

The text is only 188 pages but the book is well-researched with many footnotes and a 22 page bibliography. I consider it a good book for the general public because I believe most people have a poor understanding of probability, a subject of ever-increasing importance in today's world. The author does an excellent job of demonstrating the counter-intuitiveness of the subject with her description of the Monty Hall problem and discussion of how seemingly rare events become likely in the long term. I would have liked her to include some material about polls and their margins of error as well, because they are used so much in our society. Anyone who, like me, has taken college level statistics and probability will find the book less useful, although the discussion of the various definitions of randomness and the difficulty of generating random numbers in the last few chapters may prove interesting.

I found three main faults with the book. First, I felt it could have been more interesting, although in fairness, it's hard to make statistics exciting. Second, as mentioned above, I think the author should have included some material about polls. Third, the book progresses from very simple concepts in the first few chapters to much more complex ideas near the end and I'm not sure there's enough middle to bridge the gap. I was tempted to give it only 3 stars but in the end I became convinced that it would be worthwhile for the average reader who knows little about the subject and that the author has done a respectable job of covering the basics of randomness in a limited amount of space. Also, it's a quick read and relatively inexpensive.

This book does two things: It surveys the history of probability and randomness, and it teaches some insights about how people think about randomness and probabilities. It is a short, light read, but it disappoints on both fronts. For history, "Against the Gods" by Peter Bernstein is much better (more detailed and more interesting). For insights, "Fooled by Randomness" by Taleb is much more insightful.