Customer Reviews

Rationality for Mortals: How People Cope with Uncertainty (Evolution and Cognition)

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I read this author's _Reckoning with Risk_ some time ago and found it worthwhile. This is an even better book, despite being an earlier one (2000) than that (2003).

Like evolution, probability is a slippery, subtle subject and some of its main principles and their ramifications can be hard to grasp, even for intelligent people. This book is one of the best out there for explaining some of the fundamental concepts in uncertainty and probability. Gigerenzer uses some striking historical examples to do this. One of these is about John Arbuthnot (1710) who used the concept that we now call the null hypothesis to prove the existence of God. Gigerenzer observes that "Arbuthnot's test illuminates the possibilities and limitations of a null hypothesis.... Divine providence always wins if the null hypothesis loses."

As well as explaining some key concepts such as the null hypothesis, this books shows them in action, as in the Chapter 9 "Understanding Risks in Healthcare."

I recommend this book to anyone who wants to improve or check their understanding of some of the fundamental concepts and also gaps in our current understanding of uncertainty and probability.

Reading this (as far as my increasing sense of annoyance permitted) was not an experience worth sharing. The author is mudling through with remarkably little analytical clarity.

I have read this text from cover to cover and must say that it is no easy read despite the fact that I studied this subject quite exstensively
I think part of the problem is that the author is rather too argumentitive, which results in certain areas of the book appearing over complicated.