Simulation modeling is arguably the most versatile scientific tool for predicting the future environment. However, the reliability of model-based predictions is limited to the behavior domain defined by the historical data employed for conceptualizing and calibrating the model. Future changes in external inputs and internal structure tend to produce system behavior significantly different from prior predictions. To abate this seeming lack of credibility, it is now customary to qualify model predictions with uncertainty estimates. This dissertation explores the complementary approach of back-casting future scenarios. Centered on the analysis of uncertainty, a methodological framework is developed for the computational evaluation of environmental futures, driven by stakeholder participation as a means for establishing credibility in the model. The analysis reveals possible structural change between the observed past and speculated future scenarios by comparing the ranking of key sources of uncertainty in model outputs. Three sampling-based methods are employed: Regionalized Sensitivity Analysis (RSA), Tree-Structured Density Estimation (TSDE), and Uniform Covering by Probabilistic Rejection (UCPR). RSA and TSDE are tested for identifying and ranking the key factors that influence ecological behavior in Lake Oglethorpe, Georgia, and UCPR, for recovering parameters of a rainfall-runoff model of an experimental watershed near Loch Ard, Scotland. The framework is applied to an integrated assessment of ecological behavior in Lake Lanier, Georgia. Stakeholders' fears and desires for the future state of the reservoir are elicited and encoded for analysis.
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First Sentence:
In a report to the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) titled Beyond the Horizon: Using Foresight to Protect the Environmental Future [124], the Science Advisory Board (SAB) uses the term Foresight, defined as futures analysis and research, to label the process already being employed by government, private businesses and non-governmental organizations to anticipate future change. Read the first page Key Phrases - Statistically Improbable Phrases (SIPs): (learn more)
adaptive community learning, epilimnion phytoplankton, uncertain input factors, foresight workshop, soluble reactive phosphorus concentration, median trajectories, candidate parameter vectors, key input factors, desired future scenario, reachable futures, environmental simulation models, practical credibility, surface sediment layer, terminal relative, integrated environmental assessment, water quality indicators, watershed loading, node density, sampling domain, phosphorus yield, reservoir ecosystem, tributary inflow, sensitivity classification, stored points, including node Key Phrases - Capitalized Phrases (CAPs): (learn more)
Lake Lanier, Lake Oglethorpe, Monte Carlo, Saginaw Bay, United States, Lake Washington, Loch Ard, Millennium Project, Probabilistic Rejection, Regionalized Sensitivity Analysis, Tree-Structured Density Estimation, Uniform Covering, The Netherlands New!
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Front Cover | Table of Contents | First Pages | Surprise Me!
In a report to the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) titled Beyond the Horizon: Using Foresight to Protect the Environmental Future [124], the Science Advisory Board (SAB) uses the term Foresight, defined as futures analysis and research, to label the process already being employed by government, private businesses and non-governmental organizations to anticipate future change. Read the first page Key Phrases - Statistically Improbable Phrases (SIPs): (learn more)
adaptive community learning, epilimnion phytoplankton, uncertain input factors, foresight workshop, soluble reactive phosphorus concentration, median trajectories, candidate parameter vectors, key input factors, desired future scenario, reachable futures, environmental simulation models, practical credibility, surface sediment layer, terminal relative, integrated environmental assessment, water quality indicators, watershed loading, node density, sampling domain, phosphorus yield, reservoir ecosystem, tributary inflow, sensitivity classification, stored points, including node Key Phrases - Capitalized Phrases (CAPs): (learn more)
Lake Lanier, Lake Oglethorpe, Monte Carlo, Saginaw Bay, United States, Lake Washington, Loch Ard, Millennium Project, Probabilistic Rejection, Regionalized Sensitivity Analysis, Tree-Structured Density Estimation, Uniform Covering, The Netherlands New!
Books on Related Topics | Concordance | Text Stats Browse Sample Pages:
Front Cover | Table of Contents | First Pages | Surprise Me!
Citations (learn more)
This book cites 5
books:
- Environmental Health by Monroe T. Morgan in Back Matter
- Environmental Assessment by Ravi K. Jain on page 37
- Environmental Science by Michael D. Morgan in Back Matter
- Fort Worth by Rh Value Publishing in Back Matter
- Water Resources (Landmark Geography) by Robert Prosser in Back Matter
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