Customer Reviews

The Right Stock at the Right Time: Prospering in the Coming Good Years

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Larry Williams is a prolific author, trader, educator, and money manager. With over a quarter century of experience, Williams has provided investors with practical and easy-to-implement market timing and stock selection strategies in this just published book.

Williams initially focuses on the recurrent seasonal patterns in the market. Williams reveals one interesting strategy where he notes that excellent times to go long the market are years ending in twos (e.g., 1952, 1962 ...... 1992) and threes. Just look at charts in those years or view them in this book to see those excellent buying points.

Williams also covers the best years of each decade to invest - fifth, eighth and ninth years. The consistency of these three years performance is 80%(positive returns in 8 out of 10 of those decade years). Next he covers the four-year cycle from 1858 to the present time (last 4-yr cycle years were 1994, 1998, 2002) showing that they were good times to buy at their yearly lows, many times occurring in the September/October timeframe.

Another strategy Williams covers in buying in October and selling in April. This strategy was offered by Stock Trader's Almanac in 1986 developed by Yale Hirsch, and it still works today. This strategy has produced significant returns while reducing risk as investors are out of the market for half the year.

Williams provides a look at indicators to determine that a market bottom is in place. He covers such items as the Fed's Stock Evaluation Model, margin credit, odd-lot short sales, Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Index, US Bonds, and gold prices.

Williams covers in detail the fallacy of long-term investing and the devastation that it can wreak on investors portfolios. Investors who are die-hard "buy-and-holders" should read this chapter to learn that to use that strategy is dangerous.

To do well in the market, Williams urges investors to find stocks that have the capability to outperform the market, and then find the best time to buy them. He totally disagrees with the Wall Street cognoscenti that market-timing is useless.

He spends a chapter on buying stocks at a discount, and one on measuring investor sentiment on individual stocks. He lists seven traditional measures of value (e.g., P/E ratio, Price/Book) and elucidates on which ones work best.

All-in-all this well-written, easy to understand book provides investors with a systematic, time-tested approach to investing. Williams has again provided investors with another classic.

This book is an outstanding value for any investor or stock trader! I could not put it down once I started reading it. Quite simply this book could make you immensely wealthy if you studied and applied the mountains of street smarts, common sense research and wisdom contained in its pages. It breaks new ground by its unique approach to combining broad-based, macroeconomic price patterns and some traditional fundamental statistics for timing the stock market. Investors and stock traders are starting to become more keenly aware that the concept of timing indicators from the discipline of Technical Analysis coupled with key statistics from Fundamental Analysis can provide the basis for rational stock investing........in Bull or Bear markets. This may be the first book to accomplish this critically important objective for the individual investor that wants to control his or her own financial destiny.

This book contains sound advice and stock investment timing techniques from one of the most successful, highly respected and well-known investors, stock/stock index traders and educators in the business. Larry's techniques for stock selection and market timing are based on sound historical analyses and practical methods for buying and selling. I believe this material proves, once and for all, the fallacy of the "buy and hold" approach and willy-nilly diversification schemes pushed onto an unsuspecting public by the ill-informed, and sometimes unscrupulous, community of brokers and investment advisors. This book blows their cover! Markets can be timed using patterns and fundamental indicators....................and the individual investor can do it for themselves.

Larry Williams proves that market timing can significantly improve your investment results. As an example, using just one of the techniques in this book, I did an independent, blind, unbiased five year simulation of a strategy adapted from the High Yield Investment Strategy (p. 185) using the five lowest-priced, highest-yield stocks in the Dow Industrials and Dow Utilities (this is not the Dogs of the Dow strategy). This strategy returned $6,560 for each $1000 invested from October 1998 to June 2003 (an average 46%+ return per annum). While that kind of return may not be possible in all time periods, it certainly provides a high degree of credibility for the results that this book claims can be achieved. Contrast this with the severe losses many people have suffered in the last three years using other investing approaches. Remember 1998/1999 were two highly volatile, bubble years and 2000 to the present is a secular Bear. The strategy worked extremely well in both types of markets. What impressed me most was that gains were pretty evenly spread throughout the five year period (only the year 2002 had a loss and that was only -7.4%). Actually, the gains from the three Bear market years were nearly the same as those from the two Bull years. This is a great testament to how robust Larry's techniques are. The bottom line is this is how I will invest my money and retirement funds, and I would strongly suggest it would be the right thing for many other individual investors to do, as well.

If you are looking for a sound and safe way to invest, grow and protect your money in the stock market, this book is for you!

Since winning the Robbins World Cup Championship in Futures trading in 1987, (and teaching his daughter to do the same a few years later) Williams has become one of the leading seminar speakers and has probably taught more traders tricks of the trade than anyone else. One realizes while reading his book that he is also a careful record keeper and analyst. He shares these records with his readers along with his analysis on what he has experienced in the markets since the 1960s. His book is really a 40-year tour of the markets while being privy to information only a real professional who was there the whole time would know.

When you realize that this book was written as the market was plunging in 2002 when doom and gloom prevailed, it makes it all the more remarkable. He tells his reader that the market was getting ready to turn and even gave them an idea when, all before it happened. He explains that the next move up (in 2003) will be spectacular and why as if he had the benefit of an incredible crystal ball.

The book then goes on to explain how he reached his conclusions. It is due to a lifetime of trading the markets as a careful observer and recorder. He examines cycles from the powerful Presidential Cycle to the Kondratieff Long Wave and shows examples of how they have worked in the past and will probably work in the future. He also shares a number of his formulas with the reader and why they worked.

His approach will surprise you. One might expect that as a commodities trader who turned $10,000 into $1.1 million to win the Robbins Cup, he would make many trades daily and only hold positions for a short time but this is not the case. He takes a longer-term approach and tells you the optimum trade efficiency to reduce stress and drawdowns. He also is a big believer in knowing the fundamentals of companies before he trades them. In fact, when it comes to making money in the market there is probably very little he can't tell you.

His book is an easy and thoroughly enjoyable read. It is not a book just for traders, investors will also find it useful. His enthusiasm for what he does is contagious and if you are like me, you will find yourself underlining and applying post-it notes liberally to make finding these gems again later on a lot easier.

For anyone that has been ever tempted or lucky enough to attend his seminars, this book is a must read. For those who have been, it will give them a chance to take a refresher. For those who haven't, it should help you get more out of them.

There are few books written by 'in the trench traders' of William's experience and calibre and that fact alone makes it worth reading. There are also traders who are great at what they do but can't write very well about the process. This is certainly not true of this book. Well done Larry and looking forward to your next one!

Matt Blackman - Technical Writer/Reviewer Email: matt@tradesystemguru.com

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Contributor to Stocks & Commodities Magazine, Working Money, Traders.com Advantage, Active Trader, Traders Mag (Europe) and SFO Magazine

I have had the distinct honor to know the author for over 3 decades both professionally and socially. There is not a stitch of difference between the author and person. Both are sincere, knowlegeable and charismatic. I had the fortune to meet Mr. williams in 1971 after he had made his mark and notoriety in sthe stock market and was well on his way to conquering the commodities' markets.

As with the response most will have once they have read this book, I had the same reaction to Larry when we first met. His sincerity and willingness to give and share with his readers his original research may at first appear to be promotional. Upon further reading of the book and further talking to him, one realizes he is genuinely concerned that the reader and listener at least consider the experiences and knowledge he has acuired and he is willing to share. His interest in the readers'trading welfare and success is for real.

Many other books in the investment area are written to promote the author and the information is a rehash of worthless information that others have offered before. Larry does not operate on this level. The value a reader derives from his book is many times greater than its cost.

This book is intended not only for the new, inexperienced trader, but also for the professional who has acquired his own methodology of trading. Larry information can fill the holes experienced traders may have in their trading approach.

I cannot emphasize enough the value associated with his work and anything he may write. He has enjoyed the benefit of being obsessed with the markets for 35 plus years and a reader is able at a small price to acquire a portion of this legend's wealth of knowledge.

I am not inclined to recommend anyone's book or research until I have researched the ideas and been able to accept their trading ideas as being reasonable and applicable to trading. In the case of this author, I can only write that it would behoove all traders to at least acquaint themselves with the work of this trading legend. You won't be disappointed. He has been an inspiration to me and my career and without his profound influence upon me in the early years of trading I would not have enjoyed the success in trading that I have.

I read the book cover to cover without sitting it down. Then I went back and highlighted and took notes. When I reviewed my notes I marveled how simple Larry makes the process of market timing and investment management. I've followed Larry's work for several years and was really looking forward to this book. It really lived up to my expectations. Real stuff that one can use immediately, and understand. I know Larry's approach to speculation works and I would highly recommend this book.

Larry includes some historical perspectives on market cycle analysis which is pretty good. He devotes a whole chapter on his Sentiment indicator which can be used to buy & sell stocks. The problem is at the end of the chapter he mentions a company where we can buy charts with his indicator. Larry's Williams R and A/D indicators are in most good software programs but I have never seen a "sentiment" indicator from Larry.

I really dislike books where you are taught a method only to sell us another service. They are essentially just an advertisement for another service. What a waste.

I have traded the stock market for nearly thirty years. I have always been on the lookout for a basic approach that makes common and fundamental sense on how to position oneself in the market. In this book, Larry details precisely HOW to pick stocks - which ones to pick, and WHEN to pick them. If you had used this approach in the past few years, you would have essentially missed the entire NASDAQ debacle from 1999 on. In fact, since 1999 you would have actually made money. And in the good times, this approach really shines.

Larry Williams is concise, clear and easy to follow. He shows you how to pick the most solid stocks that are making money, have good prospects and (generally) pay you a dividend that makes current bank rates pale in comparison. The book is a wealth of information that no serious stock investor should be without. Do so at your own risk.

There are many investment guides available but only some are of note. This is one of them. Mr. Williams distills the craft of market timed investing for use by the lay person. Warren Buffet once said "Anyone came buy a stock that's going ot go up. That's no secret. The secret is knowing when to sell." From personnal experience I know this to be true. This book is the first practical guide that I have seen that helps with figuring out when to sell without having to use complicated formulas and other difficult methods. And, it also helps with the buying aspect also. If you get one stock investing book this year, let it be this one. I do believe you'll like it.

There are a number of good books on "Market Timing" and this would be in the top five. If you could afford to read three books on market timing, I would get Les Masonson's book, Deborah Weir's, and this one. If you want to first learn about market timing one a book at a time, get them in the same order I just listed them.

Each book covers some of the same ground but each offers a few nuggets that aren't as well covered in the other two. Larry William's book has the better documentation on the "Decade Effect", an interesting correlation between each year in a decade and how the market has done in each of those ten years.

So, all in all, buy those three books and you will have a pretty complete understanding of timing the market on a macro-basis.

We all get different things from a book depending on our personality, experience, investment style, etc. I look for the positive things I can get from a book, not for things to critize.

I have over 300 books in my Investment Library,and this is one of the few I set aside as a reference.

I always read Larry's books. He is not just an academic, a writer, or a peddler of his products. Larry Williams is one of the premier investors of our time. You can count the people more successful at investing on a few fingers. Anytime a person like this writes, I want to read it. Is the book perfect? Of course not. I too wish there were more detail and clarity. I count my- self lucky if I get one good idea from a book, I got several from this one. I have investment books that I have paid well over a hundred dollars for. I paid less than twenty dollars for this book. I can't imangine why anyone would hesitate to purchase a inexpensive book like this from an author with Larry's credentials. I am not the least concerned if he includes a few commercials.