Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide [Hardcover]

David Vose (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: May 20, 2008 | ISBN-10: 0470512849 | ISBN-13: 978-0470512845 | Edition: 3

Risk Analysis concerns itself with the quantification of risk, the modeling of identified risks and how to make decisions from those models. Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) using Monte Carlo simulation offers a powerful and precise method for dealing with the uncertainty and variability of a problem. By providing the building blocks the author guides the reader through the necessary steps to produce an accurate risk analysis model and offers general and specific techniques to cope with most modeling problems. A wide range of solved problems is used to illustrate these techniques and how they can be used together to solve otherwise complex problems.

Editorial Reviews

From the Inside Flap

The Ten Commandments to quantitative risk analysis Morgan and Henrion, 1990
* Do your homework with literature, experts and users
* Let the problem drive the analysis
* Make the analysis as simple as possible, but no simpler
* Identify all significant assumptions
* Be explicit about decision criteria and policy strategy
* Be explicit about uncertainties
* Perform systematic sensitivity and uncertainty analysis
* Iteratively refine the problem statement and analysis
* Document clearly and completely
* Expose to peer review --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

From the Back Cover

Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide is a comprehensive guide for eh risk analyst and decision maker. based on the author's extensive experience in solving real-world risk problems, this book is an invaluable aid to the risk analysis practitioner. by providing the building blocks of risk-based thinking the author guides the reader through the steps necessary to produce a realistic risk-based thinking the author guides the reader through the steps necessary to produce a realistic risk analysis and offers general and specific techniques to cope with most common and challenging risk modelling problems. A wide range of solved examples is used to illustrate these technique and how they can be put together to make the best possible risk-based decisions.

The third edition of this highly regarded text has been thoroughly updated and expanded considerably with five new chapters for the risk manager, including how to plan and assess the quality of risk analysis, as well as new chapters for this risk analysis, as well as new chapters for the risk analysis modeller on summation of random variables, causality, optimization, insurance and finance modelling, forecasting, model validation and common errors, capital investment and microbial risk assessment. This new edition provides a greater focus on business and includes applications in a wide range of different settings.

Key Features:

• Breaks down techniques into types of modelling issues (like distribution fitting, correlation and time series forecasting) and then applies them with easy-to-follow examples.
• Explains powerful and proven Monte Carlo simulation and numerical techniques for dealing with uncertainty.
• Includes recent innovations in modelling like fast Fourier transforms and copulas.
• Over 150 examples models and over 400 illustrations.
• Written in an informal manner with a practical rather than academic focus.
• Discusses the planning, uses and abuses of risk analysis.
• Includes a compendium of almost eighty distribution types and their uses.

See all Editorial Reviews

Product Details

• Hardcover: 752 pages
• Publisher: Wiley; 3 edition (May 20, 2008)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0470512849
• ISBN-13: 978-0470512845
• Product Dimensions: 7.8 x 1.8 x 10 inches
• Shipping Weight: 3.9 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 4.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (11 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #398,800 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

20 of 26 people found the following review helpful:

3.0 out of 5 stars Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide, August 24, 2001

By A Customer

This review is from: Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide (Hardcover)

I purchased this book to learn to write simulation equations in excel but only found it was a manual ( type book ) with good information for a very expensive software I did not have....If you have RISK software, it is a great book to have... I returned my copy w/o scanning the entire book.

4 of 4 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Needed a Name Chage to Reflect Content Changes, January 7, 2011

By 

Timothy L Clouse (Fort Collins, CO) - See all my reviews

This review is from: Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide (Hardcover)

The changes from the first two editions to the third one are so great that merely calling a new edition is an understatement. I have all three editions and most (if not all) of the negative comments concern the first two. I've gone through it several times and have yet to find any of the typos/errors that were in the previous editions.

Given the expansion that occurred in this edition, it may have been better to have re-titled it as "Quantitative Risk Analysis Techniques" or something like that.

The one (and literal) weakness in the book is that it uses adhesive binding and may lose pages before it loses its usefulness. My copy is only two years old and is already starting to flop open at a couple of spots.

As the other reviewers have noted, this is the one of the standard references and covers the broadest range of topics. It is my first recommendation to anyone wanting to know more about the field.

8 of 10 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Excellent Text for Applied Risk Engineers, April 23, 2001

By A Customer

This review is from: Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide (Hardcover)

I work in the field of risk and reliability engineering and I am thoroughly impressed by this book. This is especially useful for engineers who are not used to working with probability theory. Although many of the examples are from the health sciences, the methodology can be applied to engineering problems as well. It's worth the price, though I would like to see more examples using Crystal Ball software. I would also like to see more information on probabilistic risk assessment methods like event trees and it's implementation in Excel / Crystal Ball.