Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide [Hardcover]

David Vose (Author)

Book Description

ISBN-10: 047199765X | ISBN-13: 978-0471997658 | Publication Date: December 5, 2000 | Edition: 2

Risk Analysis A Quantitative Guide Risk and uncertainty are key features of most business and government problems and need to be understood for rational decisions to be made. This book concerns itself with the quantification of risk, the modelling of identified risks and how to make decisions from those models. Following on from the success of the previous edition of this clearly written and highly regarded book, this edition is extensively revised and updated and will provide an invaluable practical guide for beginners and experienced practitioners alike. Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) using Monte Carlo simulation offers a powerful and precise method for dealing with the uncertainty and variability of a problem. By providing the building blocks the author guides the reader through the necessary steps to produce an accurate risk analysis model and offers general and specific techniques to cope with most modelling problems. A wide range of solved problems is used to illustrate these techniques and how they can be used together to solve otherwise complex problems. Reviews of the first edition "It identifies the various facets of risk analysis and provides a valuable reference to the concepts and techniques employed." Project, 1997 "It clearly explains many essential aspects of quantitative risk analysis . provides valuable techniques and sound professional advice." Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Vol. 12, 1999 "The book offers a powerful method for dealing with risk and uncertainty." Zentralblatt f?r Mathematik, Band 908, 1999

Editorial Reviews

From the Inside Flap

The Ten Commandments to quantitative risk analysis Morgan and Henrion, 1990
* Do your homework with literature, experts and users
* Let the problem drive the analysis
* Make the analysis as simple as possible, but no simpler
* Identify all significant assumptions
* Be explicit about decision criteria and policy strategy
* Be explicit about uncertainties
* Perform systematic sensitivity and uncertainty analysis
* Iteratively refine the problem statement and analysis
* Document clearly and completely
* Expose to peer review

From the Back Cover

Risk Analysis A Quantitative Guide Risk and uncertainty are key features of most business and government problems and need to be understood for rational decisions to be made. This book concerns itself with the quantification of risk, the modelling of identified risks and how to make decisions from those models. Following on from the success of the previous edition of this clearly written and highly regarded book, this edition is extensively revised and updated and will provide an invaluable practical guide for beginners and experienced practitioners alike. Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) using Monte Carlo simulation offers a powerful and precise method for dealing with the uncertainty and variability of a problem. By providing the building blocks the author guides the reader through the necessary steps to produce an accurate risk analysis model and offers general and specific techniques to cope with most modelling problems. A wide range of solved problems is used to illustrate these techniques and how they can be used together to solve otherwise complex problems. Reviews of the first edition "It identifies the various facets of risk analysis and provides a valuable reference to the concepts and techniques employed." Project, 1997 "It clearly explains many essential aspects of quantitative risk analysis . provides valuable techniques and sound professional advice." Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Vol. 12, 1999 "The book offers a powerful method for dealing with risk and uncertainty." Zentralblatt f?r Mathematik, Band 908, 1999

See all Editorial Reviews

Product Details

• Hardcover: 430 pages
• Publisher: Wiley; 2 edition (December 5, 2000)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 047199765X
• ISBN-13: 978-0471997658
• Product Dimensions: 9.8 x 7.7 x 1.2 inches
• Shipping Weight: 2.4 pounds
• Average Customer Review: 4.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (11 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #1,878,619 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

20 of 26 people found the following review helpful:

3.0 out of 5 stars Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide, August 24, 2001

By A Customer

This review is from: Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide (Hardcover)

I purchased this book to learn to write simulation equations in excel but only found it was a manual ( type book ) with good information for a very expensive software I did not have....If you have RISK software, it is a great book to have... I returned my copy w/o scanning the entire book.

4 of 4 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Needed a Name Chage to Reflect Content Changes, January 7, 2011

By 

Timothy L Clouse (Fort Collins, CO) - See all my reviews

This review is from: Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide (Hardcover)

The changes from the first two editions to the third one are so great that merely calling a new edition is an understatement. I have all three editions and most (if not all) of the negative comments concern the first two. I've gone through it several times and have yet to find any of the typos/errors that were in the previous editions.

Given the expansion that occurred in this edition, it may have been better to have re-titled it as "Quantitative Risk Analysis Techniques" or something like that.

The one (and literal) weakness in the book is that it uses adhesive binding and may lose pages before it loses its usefulness. My copy is only two years old and is already starting to flop open at a couple of spots.

As the other reviewers have noted, this is the one of the standard references and covers the broadest range of topics. It is my first recommendation to anyone wanting to know more about the field.

8 of 10 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Excellent Text for Applied Risk Engineers, April 23, 2001

By A Customer

This review is from: Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide (Hardcover)

I work in the field of risk and reliability engineering and I am thoroughly impressed by this book. This is especially useful for engineers who are not used to working with probability theory. Although many of the examples are from the health sciences, the methodology can be applied to engineering problems as well. It's worth the price, though I would like to see more examples using Crystal Ball software. I would also like to see more information on probabilistic risk assessment methods like event trees and it's implementation in Excel / Crystal Ball.