Customer Reviews

Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide

5 star:		(6)
4 star:		(2)
3 star:		(1)
2 star:		(1)
1 star:		(1)

 

 

I purchased this book to learn to write simulation equations in excel but only found it was a manual ( type book ) with good information for a very expensive software I did not have....If you have RISK software, it is a great book to have... I returned my copy w/o scanning the entire book.

The changes from the first two editions to the third one are so great that merely calling a new edition is an understatement. I have all three editions and most (if not all) of the negative comments concern the first two. I've gone through it several times and have yet to find any of the typos/errors that were in the previous editions.

Given the expansion that occurred in this edition, it may have been better to have re-titled it as "Quantitative Risk Analysis Techniques" or something like that.

The one (and literal) weakness in the book is that it uses adhesive binding and may lose pages before it loses its usefulness. My copy is only two years old and is already starting to flop open at a couple of spots.

As the other reviewers have noted, this is the one of the standard references and covers the broadest range of topics. It is my first recommendation to anyone wanting to know more about the field.

I work in the field of risk and reliability engineering and I am thoroughly impressed by this book. This is especially useful for engineers who are not used to working with probability theory. Although many of the examples are from the health sciences, the methodology can be applied to engineering problems as well. It's worth the price, though I would like to see more examples using Crystal Ball software. I would also like to see more information on probabilistic risk assessment methods like event trees and it's implementation in Excel / Crystal Ball.

This is the best guide to date for risk engineers and interdisciplinary quants who are looking for a comprehensive, user-friendly and practical book on fundamentals of risk analysis, modelling and simulations. I recommend the book to anyone interested in learning more about quantitative risk analysis or Monte Carlo modelling. The first part of the book focuses on fundamentals and the second on modelling techniques and simulations. Good examples relating to business, finance, policy and health are included where any Monte Carlo simulation software would be a useful companion.

This book is not for the faint of heart - you should know statistics and have a very solid math background before you attempt to crack open the cover. While primarily focused on risk analysis within the finance and insurance industries, the principles outlined within can be carried across to other fields such as high-tech fraud. The probability calculations, Monte Carlo simulations, and other means of determining likelihood of an event occurring are all covered and will confuse the novice. Containing a slight bias towards Vose consulting services (where the author obviously hails), this book also points out what above-average risk consultation services should do for you, as well as what you, as a hiring manager, should expect.

All in all, I find this to be a great resource, and look forward to sharing the book with others in my department that are mathematicians and can truly appreciate the content.

A very good book, but a bit too much mathematical detail in deriving formulas for probability distributions; could use better descriptions of when to use each probability distribution.

This book gives a deep insight into the state of the art and recent developments of quantitative risk analysis using simulation methods. Describes topics such as second order risk analysis I never heard about before. I used the knowledge drawn from this book to write some technical papers (published on peer-reviewed journals and seminars proceedings). Specialized software, such as @-risk and crystal ball is not strictly needed to carry out the risk-analysis systems suggested by the author (but pretty advanced skills with excel or use of math softwares are required). The specific subject of the book is risk modelling by Monte Carlo Simulation and Bayesan analysis; it does not deal with fuzzy models or other uncertainty-propagation methods. I highly reccomend this book to anyone interested into the specific subject.

I believe that this book is the best of many Risk Analysis books. The book's structure, starting from fundamental topics and guiding to advanced topics, is excellent. So, I translated this book into Japanese! You will make the best use of the book with Excel add-in Monte Carlo simulation software like @Risk and Crystal ball that you can get its trial version from the vendor's site(free!). But, the value of this book is not decreased with its sophistitated notation even if you don't have such software. You can enjoy the logic of Quantitative Risk Analysis. Now, the author is preparing his original software. I hope it will be as valuable as this book.

Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide, 3rd Edition, 2008, John Wiley and Sons, by David Vose,is an excellent technical reference and comprehensive guide to modeling risk in a wide range of settings from business to health to games of chance. Vose provides a framework for constructing a risk assessment and adds the tools of construction as detailed descriptions of probability distributions and their applications to risk computations. He illustrates his book with many examples from ModelRisk, which is companion risk modeling software. I recommend that both book and software be purchased if used as textbook for a risk analysis course.

Unlike in the first edition, the author seems to have tried his best to eliminate any reference to any simulation software in the second edition. Result: it now reads like any academic simulation text, only less. The first edition wasn't broke. Why fix it? Bring back the classic Vose!