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4.0 out of 5 stars
Prelude to some very tough future choices, January 2, 2004
This review is from: The Road to 2015: Profiles of the Future (Paperback)
The road traversed by humanity has always been filled with bumps, potholes, rough edges, and unpredictable forks. However, when the artificial sun appeared in 1945, some of the potholes became chasms. For the first time, it became possible for humans to rid the earth of human presence. At that moment, fear of technology became a part of the human psyche. Fortunately for us all, nuclear weapons have remained too destructive to use again and we can only hope that this remains the case.
However, another more revolutionary event was taking place coincident with the Manhattan project, namely the development of electronic equipment. The ability to create and transfer enormous amounts of information continues to alter the human condition at an extraordinary rate. John L. Peterson, a futurist in national security issues, uses electronic communication and computers as a basis to project the future. And this thoughtful exploration of global trends should be read by all who wish to influence what is come.
Some of the predictions are obvious. The populations of all developed nations are aging. With smaller numbers of workers supporting the public pension systems and rising per capita health care costs, the projections are disturbing. Add in a rising number of AIDS cases; for example, and it is clear that rationing of health care is inevitable. A partial list of other items explored are global warming, changing social values, global economic trends, future technological advances, and the apparent stratification of world society.
While the list of problems is overwhelming, the message is not one of despair, although the author does put forward some cynical options. A tremendous economic expansion is taking place throughout Asia, and unless derailed by political unrest, this expansion will fuel improvements in many areas. Europe has been largely stagnant while recovering from vaporization of the iron curtain and that burden is starting to be overcome. Some of the plausible technological achievements are so awesome that it will seem as if all things are possible.
Peterson does raise some unpleasant realities. Africa between the Arab north and the wealthier southern tip may be beyond saving. Old tribal conflicts, a rapidly expanding population, little modern infrastructure, and an exploding AIDS epidemic combine to indicate that assistance can only delay the inevitable. Recent events in Rwanda and Somalia underlie how difficult it is for developed nations to make a real difference.
Our world is now changing at a pace that is breathtaking. In all change, there is the possibility for both hope and despair. As is often the case, fear is the worst enemy. Only by mounting a concerted effort to deal with the course of the change can the worst of the negative consequences be avoided. And that takes understanding of the problems, something found in abundance in this book.
Published in Journal of Recreational Mathematics, reprinted with permission.
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