The Roaring 2000s: Building the Wealth and Life Style You Desire in the Greatest Boom in History [Hardcover]

Harry S. Dent (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: April 14, 1998

In his bestselling book, "The Great Boom Ahead", published in 1993, Harry Dent, one of the world's most prescient economic prognosticators, stood practically alone in forecasting a new age of prosperity emerging in the 1990s and extending into the new century. Dent foresaw a booming stock market, falling mortgage rates, and the resurgence of America as the premier global economic superpower. All of his predictions have come to fruition.

Now, in "The Roaring 2000s", Dent focuses his visionary eye on the full spectrum of changes that will follow in the wake of the burgeoning turn-of-the-century economy. According to Dent, how and where we work and live is about to change more drastically than at any time in our history due to the convergence of the mainstreaming of the Internet and other technologies and the peak spending years of the aging baby boomers. This will result in nothing less than the greatest boom in history and an unprecedented opportunity for investors and entrepreneurs, great buys in real estate, and a wealth of high-quality lifestyle choices for the savvy people who anticipate these changes. We will we such rapid and exciting change as we have not seen since the dizzying pace of the productivity revolution unleashed by the assembly line in the Roaring Twenties.

Dent not only offers detailed investment strategies aimed at exploiting the coming boom for the next fifteen years but he also explains future trends in the job market, technology, demographics, and real estate. He foresees the next great population migration and explores the radically different business and organizational structures that will be the offspring of the Information Age. At the crux of these changes is the fundamental shift to a new network model wherein front-line human "browsers" focus on intimately understanding the needs of a unique segment of customers and coordinate the products or expertise of specialized back-line human "servers" to customize solutions.

With new research tools applied to the trends that have developed within the last few years, "The Roaring 2000s" reveals concrete predictions and indepth insights into the next decade, including:

A Dow that continues to soar and will eventually reach at least 21,500, and possibly 35,000, by the year 2008

The importance of "gazelles", small- to medium-sized, high-growth companies, which today are creating most of of the jobs in this country

The rapid future economic development in countries in die Far East, South America, and Eastern Europe, and select areas of Africa, and what that means for investment, employment, and business growth opportunities now

"The Roaring 2000s" also describes the lifestyle changes these developments will inspire, including:

The New American Dream-- why changing techologies could mean a return to small-town living and which nine types of boomtowns will offer the highest quality of life in the decades ahead

Investment strategies that will help readers get the most out of a rapidly changing world

It is essential, Dent explains, to understand the magnitude and nature of the forces changing our economy and lifestyles in order to take advantage of the invaluable, emerging opportunities for significantly improving ones quality of life. "The Roaring 2000s" is a necessary guidebook to the not-so-distant future.

Editorial Reviews

Amazon.com Review

The world that author Harry S. Dent Jr. presents in his narration of The Roaring 2000s is one you'll want to live in: incredible interconnectivity between electronic devices, superfast jets, and computers that transmit video images, translate voice commands--everything except make omelets. Dent, who comes off like an accountant you'd trust with your last dime, makes the future sound so wonderful that you'll feel guilty listening to him talk about it on a low-tech cassette player. (Running time: three hours, two cassettes) --Lou Schuler --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

From Library Journal

Dent's previous book The Great Boom Ahead (Hyperion, 1993) accurately predicted the stock market boom of the 1990s. In this one, he looks ahead to the new millennium and claims that the Dow may reach as high as 35,000 within the next decade, due in large part to the changing demographics of baby boom investors.
Copyright 1999 Reed Business Information, Inc.

See all Editorial Reviews

Product Details

• Hardcover: 320 pages
• Publisher: Simon & Schuster (April 14, 1998)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0684838184
• ISBN-13: 978-0684838182
• Product Dimensions: 9.2 x 6.3 x 1.1 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.2 pounds
• Average Customer Review: 3.5 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (88 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #1,821,478 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

More About the Author

Harry S. Dent, Jr. mission as CEO and founder of economic research and analysis company HS Dent is 'Helping People Understand Economic Change'. As a former strategic consultant at Bain & Company, Dent's analysis states that demographic trends are the greatest drivers of our economy, along with radical new technologies, working together to follow a four-stage life cycle of innovation, growth, shakeout, and maturity. Since 1992 he has authored two consecutive best sellers The Roaring 2000s and The Roaring 2000s Investor (Simon and Schuster). In his latest book The Great Depression Ahead(Free Press), Harry Dent offers portfolio allocation strategies during an economic crisis, as well as the bad news that the worst of the housing downturn will occur between 2010 and 2013. Harry Dent also publishes the HS Dent Monthly Economic Forecast newsletter.

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

49 of 49 people found the following review helpful:

3.0 out of 5 stars Has some fine observations, but is overly optimistic., December 9, 1999

By 

"jdeamara" - See all my reviews

This review is from: The Roaring 2000s: Building the Wealth and Life Style You Desire in the Greatest Boom in History (Hardcover)

The book contains some insightful points about the underlying forces that drive economies such as ours. I really liked the way he fused together a good argument using population dynamics (alternating generation cycles) and market penetration of new technologies (S-Curves) for why we may experience a boom in the early 2000's. Another good observation on Dent's part (although he struggles to explained it at first) is what he terms the new network organization model for business. His chapter on spotting real-estate trends was informative, so was the last chapter on investment strategies.

Some of the things I didn't like (and why I didn't give the book a higher rating):

1) Constant references to his last book regarding key ideas and terminology. 2) Lack of specific references for further independent research (this really hurts his arguments for he cites many studies throughout the text) 3) What appears to be a lack of consideration for some other historical events that spurred change (for example WWII had a major role in the spurring of certain new technologies). 4) His incredible optimism that events will unfold exactly as described, in the time frame mentioned. 5) Some parts of the book seem either like old news or self-evident (see his explaination on page 251 of why some declining neighborhoods regenerate).

Overall, it's a good read and one will find Dent's ideas and philosophy interesting. I hope his vision comes true (for all of us).

39 of 40 people found the following review helpful:

3.0 out of 5 stars A book worthy of the current stock market bubble..., June 8, 2000

By A Customer

This review is from: The Roaring 2000s: Building The Wealth And Lifestyle You Desire In The Greatest Boom In History (Paperback)

Simply put, Dent's predictions cannot occur. Consider the following figures.

Dent's current projections for the Dow Jones Industrials is 41,500 by 2008, whereas he now expects the Nasdaq to reach 45,000 by the same date. Were this to occur, the total stock market capitalization would exceed $101 trillion (currently around $14-$16 trillion)! Were the nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to grow at a rate of approximately 6.5%, including a real GDP rate of 4.0% (Greenspan's best-case target) and inflation of 2.5% (Fed's and GAO estimate), the nominal GDP would reach $17 trillion in 2008.

The ratio of total stock market capitalization to nominal GDP would reach 600%! The figure at the most recent highs was 185%. At the peaks in 1929, 1973, and 1987, the figures were 81%, 70%, and 64% respectively. At the height of Japan's bubble market in December 1989, this figure topped 150%. (The average of the past 129 years in the U.S. has been 50%.) This suggests that the ratio will TRIPLE in the next eight years. How can this happen? Answer: It cannot.

Dent predicted a real estate market crash (30%-50%) in the U.S. in 1994-95, based on his demographic analysis. This was a fundamental blunder.

Dent predicted in late 1997 and early 1998 that the Fed would raise rates in 1998, that the long bond yield would hit 7.25%, and that large-cap stocks would correct and recover but underperform small stocks. Such a failed prediction calls into question his very understanding of the business and interest rate cycles.

There should be no doubt in any reader's mind the dubious nature of Dent's methodology and therefore his projections. More than anything, Dent is an expert marketer of Harry Dent, genius, forecaster extraordinaire.

When the market flattens out or takes a massive dive in the decade or more ahead, Dent will be watching from his Puerto Rican plantation estate where he moved in 1998. I'll leave it to you to figure out why he would move from a spectacular beachside mansion in Half Moon Bay, CA to the Caribbean when he did . . .

13 of 13 people found the following review helpful:

3.0 out of 5 stars Fascinating analysis, but ...., February 22, 2001

By 

Mike Alexander (Kalamazoo, MI USA) - See all my reviews

This review is from: The Roaring 2000s: Building The Wealth And Lifestyle You Desire In The Greatest Boom In History (Paperback)

When I first read the Great Boom Ahead I found it compelling and when The Roaring 2000's was published I rushed right out and bought it. Dent uses a demographic concept he calls the spending wave to predict the future of the economy and stock market. I was so intrigued by this idea that I decided to replicate his analysis and to extend it back in time as far as I could (just to see if it worked). For a graph of my results see

http://csf.colorado.edu/authors/Alexander.Mike/spendwav.gif

As that graph shows, the spending wave 'worked' for 1929 too. But Dent's predictions really changed between The Great Boom Ahead and The Roaring 2000's. He projects a Dow of 23K to 35K by 2007-2010! He ignored the *level* predicted by his model and simply extrapolated the recent rate of rise to the 2007-2010 date his timing projects. This is a critical error (there could be an intervening bear market between now and 2007 for example). If you focus on the levels predicted using his methods you arrive at the conclusions that the bull market would end in the neighborhood of 1450 (in 1999 dollars) on the S&P500, which means it has ended already. One can interpret this result as a bear market is interposed between now and 2007 so that the index is only getting back to the prior peak (in real terms) by 2007 as Dent's model projects. Mr. Dent should have mentioned this in the Roaring 2000's. As a result I award 5 stars for the originality of the idea and the presentation, but only 1 star for the accuracy of his prediction for an overall three stars. I recommend the book Stock Cycles for a more careful projection of stock returns over the next 20 years.