49 of 49 people found the following review helpful:
3.0 out of 5 stars
Has some fine observations, but is overly optimistic., December 9, 1999
The book contains some insightful points about the underlying forces that drive economies such as ours. I really liked the way he fused together a good argument using population dynamics (alternating generation cycles) and market penetration of new technologies (S-Curves) for why we may experience a boom in the early 2000's. Another good observation on Dent's part (although he struggles to explained it at first) is what he terms the new network organization model for business. His chapter on spotting real-estate trends was informative, so was the last chapter on investment strategies.
Some of the things I didn't like (and why I didn't give the book a higher rating):
1) Constant references to his last book regarding key ideas and terminology. 2) Lack of specific references for further independent research (this really hurts his arguments for he cites many studies throughout the text) 3) What appears to be a lack of consideration for some other historical events that spurred change (for example WWII had a major role in the spurring of certain new technologies). 4) His incredible optimism that events will unfold exactly as described, in the time frame mentioned. 5) Some parts of the book seem either like old news or self-evident (see his explaination on page 251 of why some declining neighborhoods regenerate).
Overall, it's a good read and one will find Dent's ideas and philosophy interesting. I hope his vision comes true (for all of us).
Help other customers find the most helpful reviews
Was this review helpful to you? Yes
No
39 of 40 people found the following review helpful:
3.0 out of 5 stars
A book worthy of the current stock market bubble..., June 8, 2000
By A Customer
Simply put, Dent's predictions cannot occur. Consider the following figures.
Dent's current projections for the Dow Jones Industrials is 41,500 by 2008, whereas he now expects the Nasdaq to reach 45,000 by the same date. Were this to occur, the total stock market capitalization would exceed $101 trillion (currently around $14-$16 trillion)! Were the nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to grow at a rate of approximately 6.5%, including a real GDP rate of 4.0% (Greenspan's best-case target) and inflation of 2.5% (Fed's and GAO estimate), the nominal GDP would reach $17 trillion in 2008.
The ratio of total stock market capitalization to nominal GDP would reach 600%! The figure at the most recent highs was 185%. At the peaks in 1929, 1973, and 1987, the figures were 81%, 70%, and 64% respectively. At the height of Japan's bubble market in December 1989, this figure topped 150%. (The average of the past 129 years in the U.S. has been 50%.) This suggests that the ratio will TRIPLE in the next eight years. How can this happen? Answer: It cannot.
Dent predicted a real estate market crash (30%-50%) in the U.S. in 1994-95, based on his demographic analysis. This was a fundamental blunder.
Dent predicted in late 1997 and early 1998 that the Fed would raise rates in 1998, that the long bond yield would hit 7.25%, and that large-cap stocks would correct and recover but underperform small stocks. Such a failed prediction calls into question his very understanding of the business and interest rate cycles.
There should be no doubt in any reader's mind the dubious nature of Dent's methodology and therefore his projections. More than anything, Dent is an expert marketer of Harry Dent, genius, forecaster extraordinaire.
When the market flattens out or takes a massive dive in the decade or more ahead, Dent will be watching from his Puerto Rican plantation estate where he moved in 1998. I'll leave it to you to figure out why he would move from a spectacular beachside mansion in Half Moon Bay, CA to the Caribbean when he did . . .
Help other customers find the most helpful reviews
Was this review helpful to you? Yes
No
13 of 13 people found the following review helpful:
3.0 out of 5 stars
Fascinating analysis, but ...., February 22, 2001
When I first read the Great Boom Ahead I found it compelling and when The Roaring 2000's was published I rushed right out and bought it. Dent uses a demographic concept he calls the spending wave to predict the future of the economy and stock market. I was so intrigued by this idea that I decided to replicate his analysis and to extend it back in time as far as I could (just to see if it worked). For a graph of my results see
http://csf.colorado.edu/authors/Alexander.Mike/spendwav.gif
As that graph shows, the spending wave 'worked' for 1929 too. But Dent's predictions really changed between The Great Boom Ahead and The Roaring 2000's. He projects a Dow of 23K to 35K by 2007-2010! He ignored the *level* predicted by his model and simply extrapolated the recent rate of rise to the 2007-2010 date his timing projects. This is a critical error (there could be an intervening bear market between now and 2007 for example). If you focus on the levels predicted using his methods you arrive at the conclusions that the bull market would end in the neighborhood of 1450 (in 1999 dollars) on the S&P500, which means it has ended already. One can interpret this result as a bear market is interposed between now and 2007 so that the index is only getting back to the prior peak (in real terms) by 2007 as Dent's model projects. Mr. Dent should have mentioned this in the Roaring 2000's. As a result I award 5 stars for the originality of the idea and the presentation, but only 1 star for the accuracy of his prediction for an overall three stars. I recommend the book Stock Cycles for a more careful projection of stock returns over the next 20 years.
Help other customers find the most helpful reviews
Was this review helpful to you? Yes
No
