Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster 2006 [Paperback]

Ron Shandler (Author)

Book Description

Series: Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster | Publication Date: December 1, 2005

The 20th anniversary edition of Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster celebrates 20 years of creating winners with the industrys most consistent track record of success. Written by real experts in fantasy play, it has won league champions for 8 consecutive seasons, a total of 12 titles, and 5 second-place finishes since 1998. It is the first guide to develop sabermetric applications for fantasy league play and includes accurate projections that are fully supported and intuitively logical. Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster is the source used by Major League GMs, the media, and other fantasy services.

Editorial Reviews

Review

"The Baseball Forecaster is the reason I won $105,000 in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship..." -- Brian Oldenski, 2005 NFBC Grand Champion

About the Author

Ron Shandler has been publishing his unique brand of statistical information for baseball analysts and fantasy leaguers since 1986. He is the author of the Baseball Forecaster, the publisher of Baseball HQ.comand RotoHQ.com, and the first to develop sabermetric applications for fantasy league play.

Product Details

• Paperback: 254 pages
• Publisher: Shandler Enterprises, LLC; 20 Anv edition (December 1, 2005)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 1891566067
• ISBN-13: 978-1891566066
• Product Dimensions: 10.8 x 8.3 x 0.6 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.3 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 4.5 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (10 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #1,582,248 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

23 of 32 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Let's See How 2006 Turns Out, January 3, 2006

By 

Robert W. Kellemen "Doc. K." (Crown Point, IN United States) - See all my reviews
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This review is from: Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster 2006 (Paperback)

Shandler and his expert team have produced a credible, detailed, statistically viable forecaster. However, with the bragging about "the ones we got right," it was interesting to see the 20th anniversary edition's section on "the ones we got wrong." But even this section was a tad too general and did not cleary state what they leared from their mistakes.

I also found this year's articles somewhat more obscure and less practical than in past years. Even though I have a doctoral minor in stats, I still felt that the writing in some of the introductory articles was more technical than necessary, and less helpful than they could have been.

It would also be statistically helpful for Shandler's team to compare their forecasting results to that of other "systems." They rightfully claim to follow a more thorough analysis in developing their forecasts than do many other fantasy sites which simply follow the formula of the past three years, plus age of the player, plus ballpark factors, plus gut instincts. So, take four of those sites, compare them to the "Baseball Forecaster" and statistically analyze which system more accurately forecasts actual performance year after year. This would be fascinating.

For 2005, there were some major forecasting mis-calls in the "Baseball Forecaster," including Carlos Beltran, Adrian Beltre, Jorge Cantu, Sean Casey, Jermaine Dye, Shawn Green, Richard Hildalgo, Aubrey Huff, Mike Lowell, Juan Pierre, Brian Roberts, Aaron Rowand, Grady Sizemore, and Brad Wilkerson, just to name a few hitters. The pitching forecasting was even less accurate.

Thus, like any fantasy fan book, this one must be taken with a grain of salt, used in conjunction with other expert advice, and integrated with one's own fantasy expertise.

Still, the "Baseball Forecaster" is unique in its use of sabermetrics and it is well-written (yet many typo's). So, the serious fantasy baseball fan can't do without it--as long as common sense trumps mere numbers.

As for the review of this review and the implication that this might be "sour grapes," this review seeks to present a fair and balanced assessment of the "Baseball Forecaster" (rather than being a "paid advertisement"). This reviewer drafted none of the aforementioned players (except for Sizemore and Roberts who turned out much better than projected by Shandler). They were simply mentioned as some of the more glaring examples of poor forecasts. Plus, this review is giving the book a four-star rating. And this review does indicate that "the serious fantasy baseball fan can't do without this" book. Hardly sour grapes. Instead, as a Ph.D. with a minor in statistics and an avid (and successful) fantasy player, I simply am describing some statistical analysis and statistical anomalies.

Also, the other reviewer appears to attempt to distinguish between forecasts, projections, and predictions. Semantics aside, what the fantasy fan wants is accurate analysis. Year after year, what percentage of the "forecasts" bear out in the real world? If the percentage is consistently high, then the fan can have confidence in the system. I perceive that the percentage is high enough that I rate this work a 4 out of 5 stars, but not a 5-star book.

Additionally, the other reviewer states that all the players mentioned "were outliers that NO prognoticator would have predicted." That is simply untrue on two accounts. The players noted cross a wide spectrum and can hardly be categorized together. Further, several other fantasy projections were dead on with the highs and lows accumulated by the players noted. Fancy terminology ("outliers") does not outweigh facts.

12 of 18 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars It's like nothing else out there, January 4, 2006

By 

Bob Scott (Garden City, NY) - See all my reviews

This review is from: Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster 2006 (Paperback)

The last review sounds like a bit of sour grapes. Every one of the players he listed were outliers that NO prognoticator would have predicted. However, Shandler's book is not just about projections. In fact, if you just use the projections, you are completely overlooking the power of the book. The Forecaster is about deconstructing player performance into its component parts and then finding the indicators that truly project the future. Is it correct 100% of the time? No, but who is? I've bought this book for the last nine years (5 championships and 2 more money finishes) and I would never go into my fantasy season without it.

2 of 3 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Ron Shandler Is the Man!, March 29, 2006

By 

R. Montrose "Dingo" (Perris, CA) - See all my reviews
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Amazon Verified Purchase

This review is from: Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster 2006 (Paperback)

I buy a copy of this book every year, and consider it indispensible to my pre-draft analysis. If you have ever worshipped at the altar of Bill James and also play fantasy baseball, this is the book for you. If you don't know who Bill James is, it's probably not.