Customer Reviews

Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster 2006

5 star:		(7)
4 star:		(2)
3 star:		(0)
2 star:		(1)
1 star:		(0)

 

 

Shandler and his expert team have produced a credible, detailed, statistically viable forecaster. However, with the bragging about "the ones we got right," it was interesting to see the 20th anniversary edition's section on "the ones we got wrong." But even this section was a tad too general and did not cleary state what they leared from their mistakes.

I also found this year's articles somewhat more obscure and less practical than in past years. Even though I have a doctoral minor in stats, I still felt that the writing in some of the introductory articles was more technical than necessary, and less helpful than they could have been.

It would also be statistically helpful for Shandler's team to compare their forecasting results to that of other "systems." They rightfully claim to follow a more thorough analysis in developing their forecasts than do many other fantasy sites which simply follow the formula of the past three years, plus age of the player, plus ballpark factors, plus gut instincts. So, take four of those sites, compare them to the "Baseball Forecaster" and statistically analyze which system more accurately forecasts actual performance year after year. This would be fascinating.

For 2005, there were some major forecasting mis-calls in the "Baseball Forecaster," including Carlos Beltran, Adrian Beltre, Jorge Cantu, Sean Casey, Jermaine Dye, Shawn Green, Richard Hildalgo, Aubrey Huff, Mike Lowell, Juan Pierre, Brian Roberts, Aaron Rowand, Grady Sizemore, and Brad Wilkerson, just to name a few hitters. The pitching forecasting was even less accurate.

Thus, like any fantasy fan book, this one must be taken with a grain of salt, used in conjunction with other expert advice, and integrated with one's own fantasy expertise.

Still, the "Baseball Forecaster" is unique in its use of sabermetrics and it is well-written (yet many typo's). So, the serious fantasy baseball fan can't do without it--as long as common sense trumps mere numbers.

As for the review of this review and the implication that this might be "sour grapes," this review seeks to present a fair and balanced assessment of the "Baseball Forecaster" (rather than being a "paid advertisement"). This reviewer drafted none of the aforementioned players (except for Sizemore and Roberts who turned out much better than projected by Shandler). They were simply mentioned as some of the more glaring examples of poor forecasts. Plus, this review is giving the book a four-star rating. And this review does indicate that "the serious fantasy baseball fan can't do without this" book. Hardly sour grapes. Instead, as a Ph.D. with a minor in statistics and an avid (and successful) fantasy player, I simply am describing some statistical analysis and statistical anomalies.

Also, the other reviewer appears to attempt to distinguish between forecasts, projections, and predictions. Semantics aside, what the fantasy fan wants is accurate analysis. Year after year, what percentage of the "forecasts" bear out in the real world? If the percentage is consistently high, then the fan can have confidence in the system. I perceive that the percentage is high enough that I rate this work a 4 out of 5 stars, but not a 5-star book.

Additionally, the other reviewer states that all the players mentioned "were outliers that NO prognoticator would have predicted." That is simply untrue on two accounts. The players noted cross a wide spectrum and can hardly be categorized together. Further, several other fantasy projections were dead on with the highs and lows accumulated by the players noted. Fancy terminology ("outliers") does not outweigh facts.

The last review sounds like a bit of sour grapes. Every one of the players he listed were outliers that NO prognoticator would have predicted. However, Shandler's book is not just about projections. In fact, if you just use the projections, you are completely overlooking the power of the book. The Forecaster is about deconstructing player performance into its component parts and then finding the indicators that truly project the future. Is it correct 100% of the time? No, but who is? I've bought this book for the last nine years (5 championships and 2 more money finishes) and I would never go into my fantasy season without it.

I buy a copy of this book every year, and consider it indispensible to my pre-draft analysis. If you have ever worshipped at the altar of Bill James and also play fantasy baseball, this is the book for you. If you don't know who Bill James is, it's probably not.

This book is a must have for any fantasy bsaeball fan.If you fancy yourself to be an above-average fantasy player and you don't have this book you are just kidding yourself.The detailed metrics used in the book are thoroughly and easily translated so that even the most casual fan can make use of the information.Frankly,I don't know how you can expect to win your league without the extensive knowledge of player's skills that Ron Shandler provides.Whether you play in a league just for fun or play in a league that requires an entry fee with prizes paid to the winners,Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster is required reading!I won't enter my next draft room without it!!

Having read pretty much all of the fantasy books out there, I find this book the best if you are in a rotisserie, 5X5 league. It was wrote expecting that you are in a NL or AL only, $260 budget, 23 man rosters, and 12 teams. If your league is a little different than this such as a mixed league, different budgets, or different roster size this is still the book for you. The values will be a little off, but you will still know what to expect from a player and how he compares to others at his position. It gives projections that while not always right, I find more reasoned and likely to happen than many other similar books. Not only does it give you these projections, it gives you reasons why the player is over or underperforming. The Baseball Forcaster, Minor League Baseball Analyst, and the Baseball America Prospect Handbook are all that anyone should need to run a successful fantasy baseball team.

This book can be invaluable if you take the time to learn the lingo. I suggest reading the beginning sections and then the glossary. At the end of the glossary is a cheat sheet for the various statistics provided (basics only). If you can understand the statistical part you're on your way to gleaning much information needed to help with a fantasy baseball league. Many will argue that not all their predictions are accurate...whose are. You need to weave in your own judgments as well...no one is perfect and these are predictions/projections. Happy drafting.

Shandler's Forecaster is just about as close as you're gonna' get to a tried-and-true system when it comes to fantasy projections. Each year brings some major gaffes, but the same is true of any system, whether it's Prospectus' PECOTA numbers or the homemade systems many of us have tried.

As a previous reviewer stated, this book is best used in conjunction with other systems. I believe that using it with BP, other books, and your own common sense is the best route to go. I don't think there's any system that can guarantee results, but this book can certainly help you towards that.

As for some of the bad calls they made last year, it's tough for me to criticize them too much. If someone has the time, a longer-term study on their predictions and results would be interesting. Anecdotally, however, I can say that they've done a pretty good job over the past several seasons. I don't always agree with their methods, and I've been surprised at some of their calls, but I don't think any system is going to be even close to perfect.

I'd recommend this to anyone participating in a fantasy league, since it's as good a tool as you'll find for your draft. It's gotten better over the years with its explanation of methodology and the essays they include, and it's a good purchase at a reasonable price.

I bought this for the first time after hearing about it a few times on MLB Radio's Fantasy 411. I was expecting some projections with a few comments, similar to Baseball Prospectus. This book, however, gives so much more. The essays within are worth the purchase price of the book alone and I found the explanation of many of the methods and theories very helpful and interesting.

Too many numbers without enough explanation. Shandler seems to assume that you have been reading his books for years and have a thorough understanding of all of his metrics.

However, I do believe that the approach is sound. Including more commentary on players would be useful.

The primary advantage to this book is that it has one of the earliest release dates for books that discusses the coming season. Without much competition, what else are you going to read in the cold of winter?

I doubt if I will buy it again next year.

Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster is simply the best book to have as you prepare for fantasy or sim games. His analysis is unmatched. I have been buying this book for 6 years now and can't imagine not getting it. Must have!