Customer Reviews

Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster 2007

5 star:		(12)
4 star:		(4)
3 star:		(2)
2 star:		(0)
1 star:		(0)

 

 

There's always a series of books that fantasy baseball (and other statheads - but how many statheads aren't into some kind of roto?) players look towards. Baseball Prospectus is one, the Bill James book is another, some of the Baseball America books are popular, but not mentioned as often is this book. I think it's mainly because Shandler aims his book directly at the fantasy baseball player (where the baseball snob may not want to classify themselves as), but Shandler's book yearly adds insight into the previous season's performances and whether to expect them again. Is it a perfect forecasting tool? Of course not - there is no such thing. But Shandler's reasoning for his predictions are less hunch and more fact based, which tends to get better results.

That being said - this isn't a book for the average fan. It reads like a calculus textbook for the mostpart, with small little blurbs on each player (often abbreviated due to size constraints) to explain why the prediction for 2007 may not fit the pattern shown in previous seasons. Shandler (and his crew) aren't humorless, but there's only so much you can say in ~25 words.

Shandler uses a lot of homemade stats and ratings that are treated like they're common knowledge to the reader that a newcomer might totally be lost by. Also consider that while Shandler promotes his book as one that can help all types of fantasy players (sim leagues, head-to-head, traditional roto), since each player only gets a small amount of detail and each one of the before mentioned styles makes a player's value fluctuate, don't expect to buy the book the day before your draft and think that you're set. It's a tool, and just like any other tool, you have to learn how to use it for your benefit.

So my rating was tough to come to. Having bought the book before and knowing what I was getting, I find it to be a five star book. But at the same time, I can't recommend it to everyone. It's not a fun read, it's not for the average fan, and it's very easy to get lost in it - even a knowledgeable sabermatician is going to experience a learning curve that might cause them to cast the book aside in favor of a better read and prettier ratings and stats.

I love it, but others won't. So I went with four stars, which would have gone higher if the book was friendlier to the first time user - maybe with better introductions to the stats, maybe with a easier to scan ranking or value to each player (Shandler would probably be wise to introduce some kind of star rating system or even icon-based tags to designate a sleeper pick, breakout candidate, or potential bust). Five stars for the experienced user, three for the new user, for an average of four - which it gets from me.

My suggestion for the newbie considering the book - see if you can actually get your hands on it first and see how its laid out. Hit the local bookstore if they have it, or even pick up a old version of the book (always fun with "prediction" books just to see how accurate they were) for a few bucks and see if it's your thing. If you don't feel like waiting that long, it's not an expensive book so take the plunge - but don't say you weren't warned.

Every annual fantasy baseball book out there provides you with projected stats, but they're out of date as soon as they are printed, due to injuries, trades, etc.

Ron Shandler's book does more in that it provides you with a methodology for evaluating players continually throughout the season, plus strategies for winning your fantasy league. And it also includes one free download of a data (Excel) version of updated stat projections right before the season starts.

The previous reviewer's comments was spot on in that while Baseball Prospectus (the other annual baseball stats "bible") is a great source of projections, it's really aimed at the larger baseball community, while Baseball Forecaster is wholly focused on us fantasy managers, and thus spends more time orienting itself toward us.

That said, I disagree slightly with the previous reviewer's assessment when it comes to the steroid article. I'd point out that Baseball Forecaster is intended to allow a bit more room for subjectivity than do strict sabermetricians, for whom numbers are the source of all assumptions. I think that just because there is no underlying data to examine shouldn't mean a subject cannot be discussed at all.

The article on steroids, I think, is an example of the balance BF tries to strike - I don't think Ron Shandler intends his book to be a strictly quantitative study, but rather a combination of the application of math and baseball common sense, with a major skew toward faith in the numbers.

This is my first Baseball Forecaster and it is a solid fantasy reference which will help you win. There are articles in here ever fantasy player should read. I'm a long time Baseball Prospectus reader and the Forecaster looks at the relevant "advanced" metrics (strikeouts/innings pitched, OPS, etc...) solely as they apply to fantasy value. This is geared towards auction 5x5 traditional roto, but there is a section on H2H leagues and snake drafts (which I like but the authors do not). They present a few strategies for bidding and give many warnings about the scattershot nature of prediction. The essays on closer volatility and short pieces on topics such as Japanese Players are also valuable.

The rankings are alphabetical by player (not broken up by team - THANK YOU) into hitters and pitchers (not by position). There are cheat sheets in the back which look a lot like the ones I produce for myself (like power ratings by position) and these are also good. Commentaries terse but get the info across.

Why not five stars? One is the low production values - typographically ugly and poorly bound, the physical presentation undercuts the thoughtful information. The cheap cover will start curling almost immediately. Layout looks like it was done by competent amateurs rather than pros. Many of the charts towards the back (pitching logs specifically) are nearly unreadable. Is it so hard to put page numbers in the same place page after page?

Second is the silly insistence on proprietary renaming of rate stats - like K/BB. This may be a gentle way of introducing new concepts to SABR newbies, but the fascist copyright notice at the beginning says otherwise. Free K/BB for the people!

Last quibble is the statement towards the beginning that they are going to experiment with adjusting values on suspected performance enhancing drug use in the future. Oh well, I guess it isn't based on fact after all. Players used steroids but...wait for it... there has never been in all of scientific literature an article showing steroids help baseball performance (reviewer has an MS in Forensic Science). Good luck with your voodoo in the future. In their defense, a reader poll requested it.

So if you have made it to the end of this review, buy this book. It will help your fantasy drafting, give you tools to improve play within your league, and perhaps introduce you to some concepts. If you are a BP reader, the Forecaster does the leg work of translating performance analysis into fantasy terms. But I am not buying this book in the future if they start throwing witchcraft darts about suspected drug use.

This is a great resource for fantasy baseball nerds like me. There's a learning curve if you're not well-versed in the sabermetric stats, but eventually you'll see that there's a lot to be taken from those numbers. Rather than just looking at batting average and ERA, this guide allows you to look at some other stats that may be better indicators of trends and future performance. The writing style is engaging and Shandler's (and his fellow contributors') dry humor comes through just enough to make this an enjoyable read in addition to a valauable reference.

I have purchased the Forcaster for the last several years. For what it is, I rate it 5 stars.

The book is designed for people who take their fantasy baseball extremely seriously. If you are merely an occasional or casual fantasy baseball participant, this book probably isn't for you. It took me a couple of years to get a handle on some of the information which is presented, and now it helps me lay out a gameplan for my fantasy baseball drafts, the players who I would like to select, and the rounds I would like to select them in.

The Forecaster breaks down the statistics from prior years and gives you methods and procedures as to how to evaluate major, and some upcoming minor league players in the upcoming year(s). It's not just statistics-- there are articles which give you the authors' views on how they intepret some of the info. It won't tell you who to pick for your fantasy team--what it will do is to give you the tools and information to make your own fantasy evaluations and decisions. (To me, that's where the fun is--of course winning helps too.)

For those who are even more serious about their fantasy baseball, Shandler has an internet site, which has daily updates, and articles written by a very top-flite staff. The site is pricey (a little less than $100 per year) but for those who are really into fantasy baseball, it's worth every penny.

P.S. I have been a subscriber to the internet service for several years, but I have no ownership interest (nor any other financial interest) in this enterprise, other than as a subscriber.

Nobody does it better than Ron Shandler and company. In depth research, stats on every facet of a player's game and Ron doesn't pull any punches. His assessments are well backed up and he remains a Fantasy Authority.

I need to start with the positive. This is an excellent resource for rotisserie players (of which I am one). The organization of the book is perfect (alphabetica by pitchers and catchers). And the comments provide just the right amount of color to go with the projections.

Two fairly major issues prevent me from giving Shandler's annual 5 stars, even though I purchase it every year.

First, and most importantly, Shandler does NO park adjustments. This, in my mind, is a critical mistake he continues to make. Even the most casual fan knows that player analysis must take into account the park in which the games take place. Stats earned while playing 50% of your games in Rangers Ballpark aren't the same as those earned playing 50% of your games in Detroit's Comerica. Shandler ignores this.

Secondly, some of us are getting a little older, Ron! Bigger print would help a lot...even if you have to add a few pages.

Honestly the online service is far better (and has outpaced the book). While the book can be physically held, the information on BaseballHQ is more recent and cotains all of the data in the book.

The only downside is the service is much more expensive, but accuracy comes at a price.

This book is considered the bible of fantasy/roto baseball palyer evaluations.It does live up to ites reputation. I have used it for years as do many of the GMs of MLB teams. An excellent product.

The articles explaining the statistics are not well written, but who cares! I think he is the best at predicting future fantasy performance. Where Bill James and the Prospectus people focus on new measures of baseball performance, Shandler sticks to the standard 5 fantasy categories. He was the only tout who predicted Valverde doing as well as he did and I profited from that information.