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Sales Predictions?


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Initial post: Mar 23, 2012 5:52:38 PM PDT
Last edited by the author on Mar 23, 2012 5:56:14 PM PDT
S. Morris says:
So the album hits American stores Monday(!!!), what are everyones week 1 sales predictions? Obviously it will hit Number 1, what about raw numbers?

For Comparison:

Ray of Light: 371,000
Music: 419,600
American Life: 241,000
Confessions on a Dance Floor: 350,000
Hard Candy: 280,000

This album is getting good reviews(Metacritic average of 77 so far, VERY good for a female pop album[EDIT:someone decided to give it a 4/10 so it's now down to 71]) and of course the Superbowl was huge for her, generating record iTunes preorders. Unfortunately she hasn't had a hit single(WHY wasn't Turn up the Radio the first single?!) and she has done zero visual promotion outside of the Superbowl and music videos so I'm going to say mid-high 300k's, maybe 350-380. I'm going to bet on 364,000.

Try and post ONE solid number so we can see who gets the closest!

Posted on Mar 23, 2012 6:17:31 PM PDT
I'm going to take a wild guess and say first week sales will be 330,000. One of those will be mine.

In reply to an earlier post on Mar 23, 2012 7:14:53 PM PDT
Based on the reviews, and the fact that Madonna hasn't released an album in 4 years, I believe we are looking at a first week total of around 330,000..... I've listened to the album in its entirety and I must say its amazing and fresh and incredibly addictive !!!! I've been a fan since 1982, and as I turn 46 in October, I can honestly say that there is not one female pop music artist that can touch the power that is Madonna..... She inspires, allows us to enjoy the musical experience..... All others dare to be innovative, but fail.....

Posted on Mar 23, 2012 9:07:09 PM PDT
Last edited by the author on Mar 23, 2012 9:07:53 PM PDT
Dogville says:
Far too optimistic. As with ageism and a generally weak first single (luckily the rest of the album seems strong), we are looking at 200k. Having said that, it does not take away anything that this woman is age- and gravity-defying and pretty much has her way. Her albums will always be for fans...

Posted on Mar 23, 2012 9:18:10 PM PDT
ericmusicguy says:
Hate to say it, but Dogville is right. I cannot wait for this CD but I will be shocked if week 1 sales are over 250k. After all, Hard Candy did 280k BUT it had a much stronger opening single "4 Minutes" and she was hot on the heels of Confessions / Confessions Tour momentum. So yeah, I'm hoping 200k at least. I don't really care though because I'm quite sure she'll pull of a #1 with those pre-orders and once the tour starts and people remember all the hype and attention a Madonna tour spawns, then she'll be fine. Next album will do better I'm sure. For this one to succeed at all is an accomplishment, post-Gaga and four years after her last album. Long live M.

Posted on Mar 23, 2012 10:11:06 PM PDT
W. STEVENS says:
I use to be a huge Madonna fan in the 80's, her first albums were incredible and than slowly went downhill. By the time she hit the 2000's dance and Brittney Spears style techno style garbage, I began to hate her musically. I just heard the new album and I can't even understand anyone who would care about this junk. BDay song is about the only song that even sounds catchy to me and a couple ballads like The Best Friend. Masterpiece and Falling Free are listenable, but kinda boring ballads to be honest! The rest of it so loud and over produced, just really crappy sounding junk! This is music that of it were done or released by any other artist that wasn't well known, it wouldn't even see the light of day. There's nothing special or good about it. You want a sales prediction, yea it might sell 250,000 in the first week but like the last album Hard Candy, this album will do no better than Gold. Madonna is a concert act now, all her glory, money, and ticket sales will be earned from HUGE worldwide tours raking in record profits from her past catalog of music from 3 decades!

Posted on Mar 24, 2012 6:12:19 AM PDT
Art Lover says:
I'm gonna go out on a limb and say 425,000 - 500,000....(maybe just wishful thinking)

Posted on Mar 24, 2012 12:36:51 PM PDT
robbohica says:
I think sales could be high beyond the first week. Those who purchased tickets for the tour may redeem a digital download beginning March 26. There will be several hundred thousand people in the U.S. alone redeeming albums this way. As to opening numbers, for the first week, who knows? I am concerned about the release of the Hunger Games album on March 20. It has an extra 6 days to sell and we remember what happened with the Ray of Light album when it went up against another juggernaut film Titanic.,,,

Posted on Mar 25, 2012 7:43:42 AM PDT
Awesomeguy says:
I hate to say it but i think sales will be very disappointing.

Posted on Mar 25, 2012 8:45:31 AM PDT
KC says:
I think the album will have a strong first week opening, roughly 200-300K sold, due to her strong fanbase who always manage to get her to #1. Plus she's releasing the album on Monday, rather than Tuesday, which is the industry norm of when albums are released, so that gives her an extra day of sales for Billboard to calculate. Due to the lukewarm reception of the first two singles, it's kind of hard to say how this album will do in the long run. If she doesn't put out a killer single, MDNA will just slip off the charts, much like HC did. I'm sure it will do much better overseas.

Posted on Mar 25, 2012 8:57:45 AM PDT
Read this doubters.....

'MDNA,' Madonna's great new CD, is an exhilarating return to her pop-dance past
Album is loaded with upbeat songs like 'Give Me All Your Luvin' ' and 'Superstar'

NEW YORK DAILY NEWS

Posted on Mar 25, 2012 1:55:36 PM PDT
Last edited by the author on Mar 25, 2012 5:12:33 PM PDT
Elizabeth says:
Madonna is clearly having a blast not measured in chart positions or sales figures whether most people know she has an album out or not. The Fallon interview was relaxed almost beyond imagination, dodging questions, playing coy - but laughing up a storm waiting for those newly done chipmunk cheaks to recede. lol. She knows where her paycheck comes. Whatever tracks the Daily News highlights or compares to Cher, half the time I couldnt tell what he was talking about, the music is still there. And for me at least, as interesting, melodic and beautifully communicated as ever.

Posted on Mar 25, 2012 2:33:28 PM PDT
It will obviously have a big first week, that said I suspect the sales be good after as well. Its a great effort, getting great reviews...the strongest material is ahead, not behind it...

Posted on Mar 25, 2012 4:46:52 PM PDT
. says:
Writing from the UK but I would say that first week US sales will be around 310,000 with about 100,000 in the UK. Another 200,000 at least across Europe.

Posted on Mar 25, 2012 8:05:28 PM PDT
S. Andrade says:
Well, considering she already sold about 100k with pre-orders during the superbowl week... every ticket sold for the tour is getting a copy, she's playing about 30 shows most which are sold out already which should add anywhere from 200k-300k (maybe even more as she's playing stadiums), reviews have been very positive which could bring back a whole bunch of fans she lost with Hard Candy so that's another 25k-50k... she's gonna open with at least 400k maybe even 500k for sure. Had she released a hit first single and promoted the album we would be looking at her first ever 1 million opener.

I say 425k.

In reply to an earlier post on Mar 25, 2012 9:23:52 PM PDT
Your numbers are spot on because a lot of people enjoyed her Super Bowl performance. And in less than 7 weeks her "Gimme All Your Luvin" video is reaching 30 million views on YouTube. That's impressive!

In reply to an earlier post on Mar 25, 2012 9:28:47 PM PDT
ericmusicguy says:
I don't think that's at all feasible. First of all, doesn't Billboard NOT count albums that come with another purchase (i.e. a concert ticket). To them, the album was given, not sold. Furthermore, 100k pre-orders should be SUBTRACTED from our most optimistic guesses for this week. Only a tiny percentage of fans will buy a copy in addition to the pre-order. I personally just downloaded my pre-order----haven't even gotten past "Gang B*ng" yet, it's so freaking amazing----and will be buying the deluxe edition for myself tomorrow and the standard for my wife, a casual Madonna fan, but such buying patterns are the exception, not the rule. I want nothing but success for Madonna, but I doubt we'll even top Hard Candy's week 1 numbers, let alone succeed them, though I'd LOVE to be wrong.

Posted on Mar 26, 2012 6:20:55 AM PDT
Last edited by the author on Mar 26, 2012 11:10:52 AM PDT
S. Morris says:
So help me God, the hunger games soundtrack is actually above MDNA on iTunes, I very well may have deluded myself into thinking there was more hype for this album than there really is.

EDIT: Alright, it's #1 now, that's one less wrong in the world.

In reply to an earlier post on Mar 26, 2012 6:33:57 AM PDT
GarionOrb says:
@W. Stevens - Have you actually heard the album? "Best Friend" is NOT a ballad...

Posted on Mar 26, 2012 6:36:01 AM PDT
GarionOrb says:
I'd be shocked if this album didn't hit #1 on the Billboard charts. Every one of her studio albums since Music has debuted there. Then again, "Give Me All Your Luvin'" was a very weak single (though still a top 10 hit) and "Girl Gone Wild" doesn't officially release to mainstream radio till tomorrow.

Posted on Mar 26, 2012 10:54:14 AM PDT
S. Andrade says:
#1 on iTunes, and 34 other countries... online campaign is controversial, cheeky and hilarious. This will be a smash hit of an album by the time the tour wraps up. I see "Confessions" type numbers for MDNA, and a 400k opener in the US. Brilliant move by M, she's left the best material for the remaining of the year...

Posted on Mar 26, 2012 12:42:17 PM PDT
Last edited by the author on Mar 26, 2012 1:17:45 PM PDT
JRocka says:
"MDNA reaches #1 in 40 countries on ITUNES!!!!" -Guy Oseary via Twitter. Also "Girl Gone Wild" is currently the #1 music video on iTunes.

Posted on Mar 27, 2012 8:54:08 PM PDT
S. Morris says:
Alrighty then, considering it's #3 on iTunes a day after release, it's fair to say I got a little too caught up in my mind's hype with my original post. This will probably end up being her lowest debut since at least American Life and very well may not hit #1. A damn shame.

Posted on Mar 28, 2012 7:04:37 AM PDT
Looks like Lionel Richie will be #1. Check out Forbes magazine. I think GMAYL and GGW may have hurt her album.

In reply to an earlier post on Mar 28, 2012 7:57:27 AM PDT
GarionOrb says:
It was #1 on iTunes the day OF release, in over 40 countries.
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Discussion in:  MDNA forum
Participants:  25
Total posts:  64
Initial post:  Mar 23, 2012
Latest post:  Apr 16, 2012

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