Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation [Hardcover]

Kees van der Heijden (Author)

Book Description

ISBN-10: 0470023686 | ISBN-13: 978-0470023686 | Publication Date: January 24, 2005 | Edition: 2

Scenario planning allows companies to move away from linear thinking and better understand external change. Eight years (and 30,000 copies) after publication Scenarios is still acknowledged as the definitive work in the field. Now, Kees van der Heijden brings his bestseller up to date, following up on his original case studies and adding significant new material. The Second Edition changes focus slightly by providing more in-depth analysis and application of the concept of the 'strategic conversation'. While maintaining the underlying rigour of the first edition, van der Heijden revisits the text to make it far more practical and accessible, and in doing so gives you the tools you need to set out and negotiate a successful future course for your organization in the face of significant uncertainty.

Editorial Reviews

Review

“…all important subjects for the modern manager are covered in 5 parts…” (Business Books – web)

From the Publisher

This book shows how to use scenarios--a powerful new approach to strategic planning--to pilot your company profitably through unknown territory. First developed at Royal Dutch/Shell, scenario planning is a technique that enables you to imagine--and prepare for--discontinuous change. When initially developed, scenario planning helped companies understand external change--change in markets, the competitive arena, technology, demographics and so on. In this book, the author takes the art of senario planning one giant step further. After tackling external forces, he shows you how to apply the logic of scenario planning to internal forces. When applied internally as well as externally, scenarios become the driving force for learning as well as planning. --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

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Product Details

• Hardcover: 380 pages
• Publisher: Wiley; 2 edition (January 24, 2005)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0470023686
• ISBN-13: 978-0470023686
• Product Dimensions: 9.2 x 6.3 x 1.1 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.5 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 4.8 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (11 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #233,807 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

25 of 26 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Strategic Processes MasterGuide, November 24, 2000

By 

Prof David T Wright (Vancouver, BC) - See all my reviews

This review is from: Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation (Hardcover)

Aimed at business strategists or consultants, this book provides many deep, usable tools, and approaches assisting the development of more robust projects and organizations across a range of futures.

The well referenced attractive chapters span:

++ The context- history in Shell, and three paradigms (rationalist/ evolutionist, and processualist).

++ The principles of scenario planning- the business idea, uncertainty, scenarios, and scenarios planning in organizations.

++ The practice of scenario planning- practitioner's art, articulating the business idea, competitive positioning, scenario development, and option planning.

++ Institutionalizing scenario planning- the management of change, planning processes, and guiding the strategic conversation.

Strengths include: the credibility and rigor of content (the author has 35 years experience in this field!); the attractive style and presentation; the sets of checklist & guidance for those embarking on scenario planning exercises; and extremely relevant tools for senior managers (and whole organizations) to avoid "analysis-paralysis" number-crunching or Las Vegas gambling on guesswork and charisma. The main weakness (to this reviewer) was a need for more case studies, and perhaps more occasional humor/lightheartedness.

Overall, a great text which goes very well with the high quality Gill Ringland's "Scenario Planning- Managing for the Future" (Wiley, 1998, ISBN 047197790X).

19 of 19 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Packed with Knowledge!, July 14, 2005

By 

Rolf Dobelli "getAbstract" (Switzerland) - See all my reviews
(HALL OF FAME REVIEWER)    (TOP 500 REVIEWER)    (REAL NAME)   

This review is from: Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation (Hardcover)

Many business books provide just enough information to whet executives' appetites for more advice accompanied by high consulting fees. Author Kees van der Heijden has written an exception. His comprehensive volume puts scenario building in historical context, explains its relationship to forecasting and tells you how to introduce scenario planning to your organization. Once you understand your corporate identity and your fundamental "Business Idea," he says, you can establish and enact informative scenarios that will prepare your company for several different versions of what lies ahead. In that way, scenario planning generates better decision making. We strongly recommend this book to top managers, strategists and planners, especially those who sense they're making decisions on the fly without having a structure for thinking deeply about future implications.

18 of 18 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars A Life-Time's Experience in Scenarios and Corporate Strategy, July 14, 1997

By A Customer

This review is from: Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation (Hardcover)

What makes this book such high-value reading is not just the quality of the author's argument; it is the way in which he lets us participate in his wealth of experience gained over many years of conducting practical scenario work. Readers with a professional background in corporate strategic planning will profit from this thoughtful exposition of accrued processual knowledge. Newcomers are offered a unique opportunity to make a direct shortcut to the results of a life-time's professional learning in this highly complex field of practice. This is not to say, of course, it could replace personal experience to be made by each individual alone; however, Kees van der Heijden offers a clearly structured guide to the Whys and Hows of organizational learning based on the scenario approach to planning. (read more about this great book at http://www.unisg.ch/~sgzz/links/stp/futres/bookrev.htm)