Customer Reviews

Second Chance: Three Presidents and the Crisis of American Superpower

5 star:		(26)
4 star:		(16)
3 star:		(14)
2 star:		(4)
1 star:		(3)

 

 

A great book by the finest foreign policy thinker of the past 100 years.
Brzezinski analyzes the foreign policy of the last three presidents
(Bush I, Clinton, Bush II) and provides wonderful insights and coherent
criticism--good and bad--of each. The most relevant material is about
the current situation, but understanding the foreign policy of Bush I
and Clinton is essential if one wants to understand what is happening now.
The book's title "Second Chance" refers to what is needed after 2008 to
try to reestablish the global leadership of the United States.

You are not going to get simplistic answers here--"Us versus Them", "Good
versus Evil", "Our enemies hate freedom". Brzezinski shows that many
of the current views--"Arabs respect force above all else", "Democracy
can be imposed from outside", and the like have no basis in reality.
He also warns of the growing closeness between Russia and China, and
he is concerned that China will become the dominant player in the Middle
East, with a growing market for oil, a willingness to provide weapons,
and the absence of a patronizing attitude. The world is a very complex
place, and there are no easy answers. This is definitely not a feel-good
book. As Brzezinski says, we have created a disaster which with very
careful work can eventually be remedied--but there will be no third
chance.

Brzezinski is incomparably qualified to explain and comment on foreign affairs in the last two decades, given his high-level academic and experiential backgrounds, and numerous current contacts. "Second Chance" begins by pointing out that the U.S., having emerged from the Cold War as the unquestioned victor, enjoyed an unprecedented degree of international dominance. Unfortunately, the subsequent three presidents squandered a great deal of its power and prestige - especially Bush II. Brzezinski's intent is to lay out all the problems in the hope that America does better when it gets a second chance after the '08 elections.

Before getting into the details, however, Brzezinski also points out that the collapse of the Soviet was NOT the work of a single person (Ronald Reagan), but the consequence of a 40-year bipartisan effort, beginning with Harry Truman, and also aided by Lech Walesa (defied communism for a decade and compelled compromises that ended communist monopoly on power and precipitated uprisings in Czechoslovakia and Hungary), Pope John Paul II (revived spiritual viability), and Mikhail Gorbachev.

Bush I, according to Brzezinski, did a good (B) job overall - his main achievements were dealing positively with Gorbachev and the U.S.S.R.'s collapse, and then building an impressive coalition to handle Hussein. His two criticisms are that Bush could have done more to resolve the Israeli-Palestine rift (though he did forcefully confront Israel's push to expand settlements), and that Bush I left the Iraq problem unresolved.

Clinton, according to "Second Chance" worked well to move former USSR warheads back into the new Russia, preventing proliferation. However, he did not effectively confront North Korea's efforts to build a bomb, and ultimately failed with Pakistan as well (ignored the fact that India's possession put enormous political pressure on Pakistan). As for the Israeli-Palestine conflict, Clinton's bringing the two parties together was a good step, though Rabin failed to renounce continued settlements; the second effort (Barak and Arafat) also failed, with even Barak's foreign minister noting that he would have rejected the offer as "too vague." Perhaps success would have been attained with more time - part of the problem was that Gore did not want pressure put on the Israeli's near his election campaign.) Another Clinton strength, per Brzezinski, was his bringing the U.S. government to surpluses, generating an even greater impression of world power. Overall, Clinton is rated as a "C" in foreign policy.

Bush II, however, is spared no scorn in "Second Chance," and rates an "F." Until '03 the world was accustomed to believing the word of the U.S. president. Our moral standing also suffered via Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo (without high level accountability), and the brutality of counterinsurgency efforts in the midst of hostile civilians. Our failure to decisively prevail further lowered America's esteem, and further helped unite our enemies and creates more terrorists. Resources diverted from the terrorist threat have led to a resurgence in Afghanistan, Somalia, and Pakistan. Taking Iraq out of the picture has also strengthened Iran; our bias towards Israel has increased - further acerbating a major issue within the Muslim world. Meanwhile, Russia and China, with their new economic strength (oil and manufactured goods, respectively), and lacking the constant mentoring and admonishments of the U.S., are becoming stronger and more involved throughout the world. Disrespectful treatment of China's President Hu during his D.C. visit (no state dinner, allowing hecklers outside the Blair House to continue late into the night, playing the Taiwanese anthem by mistake), as well as supporting more nuclear weapons for its neighgor India were also cited as mistakes by the author. Finally, Brzezinski believes our summary rejection of the International Court (even pressing to exempt U.S. personnel from local courts) and the Kyoto proposal also lowered our esteem.

The world is no longer automatically America's to lead, and by 2050 only 15% of the total population will be in North America and Europe. Hopefully, after the 2008 election we begin to regain our influence.

An excellent overview!

Aside: Brzezinski likes to use the word "Manichean." I had to look it up - means presenting or viewing things in "black and white" fashion.

When Zbigniew Brezezinski speaks people listen. And when he writes people listen with added alacrity. This book is terrific. Fairness in mind, Brezezinski forces open many long-held thoughts...the first President Bush had a number of merits under his cap, President Clinton meant well, but was otherwise disengaged and the current president stands where he should fall...a total loss, not only to our country but to the rest of the world at large.

While it is fascinating to watch the author mow through parts of the past fifteen years...years he correctly assumes as a nano-second in history...he pulls no punches with regard to our last three presidents. "Second Chance" is a critical look at these past few years and the author rightly comes down with a scorecard, saving his best for last...George W. Bush.

It's hard to believe, as Brzezinski points out, how far we've fallen during Bush's presidency. Could the Iraq war be the biggest policy blunder in American history? He seems to think so as echoed by one he sizes up as astute in the book...Madeleine Albright.

"Second Chance" is a sober and hard-hitting look at today's America. I highly recommend it for its dead-on honesty written by one whose integrity is without question.

I happen to hear this guy on Charlie Rose the other night and went out and bought his book. The book isnt as interesting as he is in an interview live but its well worth the read.

His analysis of the past three administrations is superb. It is balanced and I think offers great insight into the hits and misses of our leaders. He goes on to explain his views on the world post Russia and our missed opportunites. His close of post 2008 I would love to hear discussed by him and others.

An important book for this country. Get it and read it and act.

Dr. Brzezinski gives a succinct, and as always, disinterested synopsis of the presidencies of Bush I, Clinton, and Bush II. The last 80 or so pages were the most illuminating, laying out the essential tasks for our next president to have a chance to re-establish America's credibility and global leadership. I'm not sure any of the current candidates are up to the task, but the author makes a compelling argument that our very economic survival is in the balance.

After having read Game Plan by the same author in 1987, the arguments and evidence were so compelling I put my credibility on the line by attesting to collegues that the Soviet Union would collapse in less than a decade. They stopped laughing in late 1989.

If Game Plan gave me a glimpse of the future, Second Chance has shown me two windows of America's future. Which window turns out to show our future my well depend on how well our next president appreciate's the message in this book.

(The only reason for 4 instead of 5 stars is I wish the last section were much longer)

Brzezinski gives an honest portrayal of the three Presidents that changed the worlds mind about our integrity and why. I found it hard to put down once I got into the book. Totally recommended it.

If you're interested in an apolitical analysis of post cold war policy, read this book..If you are a partisan looking for someone to praise one President's policy and bash another, don't bother("Dubya" does get it pretty bad though). Small book, jam packed with info, and, unlike a number of similar works, an incredibly interesting and absorbing read...Could easily be completed on a weekend. Brezezinski has both real world policy and academic experience...highly recommend!

This is nothing more than a scathing indictment of eight years of GWB misrule.

To distinguish his indictment from other partisan rhetoric, ZB has placed his argument in a much wider and rational perspective. He has reviewed also the missteps of the previous two US Presidents in the foreign policy arena, and the lost chances of securing and cementing a true global leadership position for USA.

What is so different with the current regime is of course not just a matter of lost chances but colossal cost to US interests abroad. Not to mention lack of any significant progress in any key domestic agenda issues to balance it all.

ZB tries to make the argument at the end that all is not lost, and US still has a chance to regain its leadership position following certain steps.

His argument is not very credible though. He ignores the fact that US, as a nation, thinks and feels very differently than the one of 50s and 60s which put US on a moral path to global leadership. Things are indeed different, and second chance seems to be wishful thinking mostly.

Writing is excellent as expected, delivery and reasoning forceful and complete. Interesting reading for those of us contemplating the next chapter.

Zbigniew Brzezinski presents a brilliant analysis why three presidents, Bush I, Clinton and Bush II failed to be great leaders. This is not because they were not intelligent enough or did not have enough power but because they lacked the right vision. Curiously the president with a clearest vision, Bush II, performed according to the detailed analysis presented in the book the worst. It is ascribed to Bush II adopting the wrong vision, the Neocon doctrine, described in detail in the book. What is the right vision according to Brzezinski? The power of the USA was at its peak under the presidencies of Bush I and Clinton and rapidly declined during Bush II. The power of the first two presidents was not used the way it could have been used. The right vision according to Brzezinski is that the USA could and should have used its power, prestige and influence to align and combine its power with Western Europe and expand it to include Russia which was possible after the fall of the Berlin Wall. This combined power should have been used to arrive at positive cooperation with the emerging nations of Asia, solve the Israel Palestine problem, to reduce the spreading of nuclear arms and to reduce poverty in poor nations. When this had been accomplished there would not have been, nuclear arms proliferation, a problem with Iran and not a 9/11 event.
This would have required that the US would have accepted to share more sovereignty with Europe first and later with other nations, to accept that international laws also had to be accepted by the USA. The USA cannot be above laws that apply to all nations. The USA could have played a leading role in shaping those laws.
Second chance refers to the possibility that the next President might still be able to resurrect American positive influence in the world, but that it is very late, it is the last chance.
The most realistic and interesting account I have read about what the goals of the USA should be.

When I picked up a copy of Brzezinski's new book, I was hoping for a thoughtful analysis of the country's future from one of America's greatest statesmen.

What I found instead, in the first part of the book at least, was a very brief history of the foreign policies of the past three administrations. Brzezinski presents a compelling analysis of their successes and failures, but I was not all that impressed with this section of the book. A reader with the topic will find little new information here.

The last chapter, which focuses on America's future in the world, was just what I had hoped for. Here, Brezezinski's brilliance shines through, and he puts forward a series of ideas that are both insightful and thought-provoking.

Unfortunately, "Beyond 2008" is only 37 pages and most of these ideas are not fully explained. Nor does he elaborate on them with examples and evidence. There is enough to write an entire book on here, and I wish he had done so. The brevity is the reason that I am not giving this book all five stars.

Still, with its solid (albeit basic) summaries, and (much more importantly) its examination of the future of our foreign policy, Second Chance is worth taking a look at.