The Secrets of Economic Indicators: Hidden Clues to Future Economic Trends and Investment Opportunities, 2nd Edition [Paperback]

Bernard Baumohl (Author)

Book Description

ISBN-10: 0132447290 | ISBN-13: 978-0132447294 | Publication Date: August 3, 2007 | Edition: 2nd

“This is the real deal. Baumohl miraculously breathes life into economic indicators and statistics.”

–The Wall Street Journal

 

“This is the most up-to-date guide to economic indicators and their importance to financial markets in print. The coverage of less-reported indicators, especially those from nongovernment sources, is hard to find elsewhere. The inclusion of the actual published tables helps the newer student of the markets find the data in the public release. For anyone trying to follow the economic data, this should be next to your computer so that you can understand and find the data on the Internet.”

–David Wyss, Chief Economist, Standard and Poor’s

 

“I find Baumohl’s writing fascinating. In addition to the famous indicators, he includes many that I hadn’t heard of. I really appreciate that he tells you exactly where to find each indicator on the Web. Just about anyone who’s serious about understanding which way the economy is headed will want to read this book. It could be a classic.”

–Harry Domash, Columnist for MSN Money and Publisher, Winning Investing Newsletter

 

“Bernie Baumohl has accomplished something of real value in The Secrets of Economic Indicators. He has successfully demystified the world of financial and economic news that bombards us in our daily lives. Both professional investors and casual observers of the world of finance and economics will be grateful for what he has done. The constant stream of heretofore bewildering news from the world of business and finance can now be easily understood. Every businessperson or investor should keep a copy of Baumohl’s book close at hand as he or she catches up on the business, stock market, and economic events of the day. It is great, at long last, to have someone who has eliminated what may have been so perplexing to so many and to have done so with such remarkable clarity.”

–Hugh Johnson, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer of Johnson Illington Advisors

 

“Bernie Baumohl has written a must-read educational and reference book that every individual investor will find indispensable for watching, monitoring, and interpreting the markets. The daily flow of high frequency economic indicators is the stuff that makes financial markets move and that can signal the big trends that make or break investor portfolios. Most important, Bernie’s long experience in reporting economics for Time Magazine helps make the ‘dismal science’ lively and interesting.”

–Allen Sinai, President and Chief Global Economist, Decision Economics, Inc.

 

“Baumohl has a gift for taking a complicated subject and allowing it to read like a fast-moving novel. My confidence in reading and understanding economic indicators as portrayed in this book made me realize the possibilities this information holds for improving my personal net worth as well as navigating my business toward higher profits. I recommend this book if you care about your future finances.”

–Morris E. Lasky, CEO, Lodging Unlimited, Inc.; Manager and consultant for $6 billion in hotel assets; Chairman, Lodging Conference; Chairman, International Hotel Conference

 

“I think this is an excellent book. It’s well written, accessible to a variety of readers, deals with an interesting and important subject, and covers the topic well. It deserves to get a lot of notice and use.”

–D. Quinn Mills, Alfred J. Weatherhead, Jr., Professor of Business Administration, Harvard Business School

 

“Economic statistics, employment data, Federal Reserve surveys. Think they are boring? Think again! They can drive markets into a frenzy, causing billions of dollars to be made or lost in an instant. Bernie Baumohl brilliantly, clearly, and, yes, entertainingly describes what every investor and business manager should know about economic indicators: which ones move markets, how to interpret them, and how to use them to spot and capitalize on future economic trends. The Secrets of Economic Indicators is an extraordinary and insightful work–an enormously important contribution to the body of financial literature. Read it and then keep it on your desk. Consult it the next time you are deluged with a flurry of economic statistics. Your understanding certainly will be enhanced, and your portfolio will likely be as well.”

–Robert Hormats, Vice Chairman, Goldman Sachs (International)

 

“If you want to make money investing, this is an essential trend-tracking tool that will help get you to the bank. This book is the real deal. Bernard Baumohl miraculously breathes life into deadly economic indicators and boring statistics . . . he knows what he’s talking about, and his expertise proves it.”

–Gerald Celente, Director, The Trends Research Institute

 

COMPLETELY UPDATED! THE PLAIN-ENGLISH, UP-TO-THE-MINUTE GUIDE

TO ECONOMIC INDICATORS: WHAT THEY MEAN, AND HOW TO USE THEM!

 

Every day, investments bounce wildly in response to new economic indicators: statistics that provide crucial clues about the future of the economy and the markets. Now, you can use these indicators to make smarter investment decisions, just like the professionals. You don’t need an economics degree, or a CPA–just The Secrets of Economic Indicators, Second Edition!

 

Using up-to-the-minute examples and real-world stories, former TIME Magazine senior economics reporter Bernard Baumohl illuminates every U.S. and foreign indicator that matters right now. You’ll learn where to find them, what their track records are, how to interpret them, and how to use that information to make better decisions.

 

Baumohl has thoroughly updated this best-seller with new data, new examples, new indicators, and revised analyses–including a new assessment of the value of yield curves in predicting business cycles. Thousands of investors and business planners swore by the First Edition: these updates make it even more valuable.

 

• New! Today’s 10 most crucial leading indicators

Better ways to predict economic turning points in time to profit

• Get ahead of the curve with the latest U.S. indicators

New insights into U.S. employment, monetary policy, inflation, capital flows, and more

• Emerging foreign indicators you need to track

From China to India, Europe to Brazil...and beyond

• Making sense of indicators in conflict

What to do when the numbers disagree

• Finding the data

Free Web resources for the latest economic data

• Which economic indicators really matter right now?

• What do they mean for stocks, bonds, interest rates, currencies...your portfolio?

• How can you use them to make faster, smarter investment decisions?

• Simple, clear, non-technical, friendly, usable...the only book of its kind!

• By Bernard Baumohl, renowned economic analyst and former award-winning TIME Magazine financial journalist

 

New edition, with extensive new coverage:

• Many new U.S. and global indicators, from new employment reports to box office receipts

• New examples and up-to-the-minute data

• Updated analyses of yield curves and other key metrics

• More international coverage

• New rankings of leading economic indicators, and much more

 

About the Author xiii

What’s New in the Second Edition? xv

Preface xvii

Acknowledgments xxiii

 

Chapter 1        The Lock-Up 1

Chapter 2        A Beginner’s Guide: Understanding the Lingo 17

Chapter 3        The Most Influential U.S. Economic Indicators 25

Chapter 4        International Economic Indicators: Why Are They So Important? 325

Chapter 5        Best Web Sites for U.S. Economic Indicators 373

Chapter 6        Best Web Sit...

Editorial Reviews

Review

 From The Wall Street Journal, November 22, 2005: 

 

"Whether you're tracking pop culture, high fashion or health care, all things are connected, and economics is the tie that binds them all. For those who need to know more about economic trends and for those who haven't the skills or background in the field, Mr. Baumohl's book is the real deal. He miraculously breathes life into economic indicators and statistics."                     

 

 

From Library Journal:

"Baumohl, a former economics reporter for Time magazine, has written a tremendously useful source on economic indicators.  Baumohl considers a variety of factors when describing each indicator, such as what exactly it measures, how it is computed, where to find the relevant report on the web, the day and time this report is released, the source of the information, and how often the information is revised. He also discusses the market impact of these indicators on bonds, stocks, and currency.  Bottom Line: Although this book is marketed as a tool for investors and is not organized like a typical reference book, it belongs in the reference collection because it explains so clearly what the various economic indicators are and how to locate data about them. Recommended for all libraries. " —Stacey Marien, American Univ. Lib., Washington, DC

                                                        

--This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

About the Author

Bernard Baumohl is managing director of The Economic Outlook Group and oversees its forecasts of economic trends and risks. He also conducts seminars on how to find and utilize economic indicators so that corporate leaders and investors can stay ahead of the business curve. Baumohl was an award-winning TIME Magazine economics reporter for two decades and covered the domestic and international economy from TIME’s New York and Washington bureaus. As an economist for European American Bank, he monitored and developed forecasts of U.S. economic activity. He also served as an analyst with the Council on Foreign Relations. A frequent guest on television and radio, he has lectured on economics at New York University, Duke University, and the New York Institute of Finance. A recipient of the John Hancock Award for Excellence in Financial Journalism, Baumohl has a master’s degree in international affairs and economics from Columbia University.

See all Editorial Reviews

Product Details

• Paperback: 432 pages
• Publisher: Pearson Prentice Hall; 2nd edition (August 3, 2007)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0132447290
• ISBN-13: 978-0132447294
• Product Dimensions: 9.5 x 6.7 x 0.9 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.8 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 4.6 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (60 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #18,533 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
  • #7 in Books > Business & Investing > Management & Leadership > Planning & Forecasting

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Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

108 of 110 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Promises to Become Dog-eared Quickly, May 18, 2005

By 

Craig L. Howe "The Pointed Pundit" (Darien, CT United States) - See all my reviews
(VINE VOICE)    (REAL NAME)   

This review is from: The Secrets of Economic Indicators: Hidden Clues to Future Economic Trends and Investment Opportunities (Hardcover)

On any given weekday, stocks and bonds gyrate in response to some economic announcement.

Bernard Baumohl, a Time magazine economics writer with more than 20 years of experience, has written a guide to these indicators and their importance to the financial markets.

The book promises to become dog-eared quickly. In concise language it explains what Baumohl indicates are the most influential U. S. and International Economic Indicators. Beginning in Chapter 2, the author defines the phrases and concepts essential to an understanding of the indicators.

In Chapter 3 he jumps into the heart of the matter: U. S. economic indicators. Each indicator is evaluated using the following criteria:
* Why is it important?
* How is it computed?
* What does it day about the future?
* How might stocks, bonds and/or currencies react to its announcement?

In Chapter 4, he examines the 10 most influential foreign indicators using the same criteria.

In the final two chapters, Baumohl provides a list of web sites that compile economic data. What in the past costs thousands of dollars is available on the web at no cost.

If any facet of your life is effected by these indicators, you owe it to yourself to keep a copy of this book nearby.

84 of 88 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Are they real, or are the government numbers?, April 4, 2005

By 

Thomas Mongle (Houston) - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   

This review is from: The Secrets of Economic Indicators: Hidden Clues to Future Economic Trends and Investment Opportunities (Hardcover)

Bernard Baumohl's "The Secrets of Economic Indicators: Hidden Clues to Future Economic Trends and Investment Opportunities" starts off with a riff on how investors got sold out by their "expert" advisors and even the stock-issuing companies themselves during the recent crash. He contends investors are in the need for better guidance. The solution, he says, is an individual investor do-it-yourself approach to fundamental macroeconomic analysis based on the reported data that underlies both the domestic and international economy.
Make no mistake, this is one of the most useful and fundamentally sound readings of how economies really work you will ever see - much more revealing and educational than a raft of academic books purporting to teach us how the theoretical economy is supposed to function. This book magnifies the real workings of an economy (daily, weekly, monthly) - the inputs that produce the outputs - and how the data generated from those workings is reported, analyzed, and used.
Baumohl lists 4 weekly, 43 monthly, and 9 quarterly releases of data in short outline form along with what they are, when they're reported, and how they're computed, along with their expected effect on the stock market, interest rates, and the dollar.
His goal, he states, is to answer the question of which indicators pack the greatest wallop in the financial markets and which ones are known for doing the best job predicting where the economy is going, thus influencing investments. He assigns a relevance rating to each of the indicators.
It's easy to get overwhelmed quickly and Baumohl is right when he laments that "There is too much economic information out there, and not all of it is useful."
He should have added "not all that accurate" either.
As you leaf your way through the compilations, you come to realize that the "numbers" that move the markets are frequently incomplete. The queried respondents upon whose businesses and operations are being used to create data are notoriously negligent in meeting reporting deadlines which brings up the question of whether we ever get a full reading of what's being reported. Thus the need for "restating" next time around. But by "the next time," those numbers are irreverent and relegated to history. Question: So, was that big market move last month based on bad info, and if so, will it correct itself when the old data is corrected? Not likely, because a new set of questionable data just got reported and is now at center stage. Deja vu all over again.
For all the questions it raises, this is a good attempt at trying to get a grip on the maze of financial accounting we're still trying to clean up, but it points out more holes than it fills.
One thing Baumohl doesn't address which would be a good subject for a follow-on book is that indicators don't have the same influence consistently through time. Each seems to have a life all its own. From the body counts (Vietnam) of the late 1960s, to the oil price increases of the mid-1970s, to the prime rate increases of the late 1970s, right on through the monthly deficit numbers of today, one influential indicator periodically rises to become the focal point of the press and the Wall Street pundits. Relative importance comes and goes with the seasons, and it would have been good to see a 40-year chart clearly delineating how dominant indicators of the time influenced direction of the various markets.
Another issue not confronted is the role played by hedonic influences on various indicators. How should we adjust for increased computer RAM or safety features of automobiles or effectiveness of medical treatment?
A third question concerns whether the market's reaction operates in a vacuum. Is the day the report comes out merely one more in a series of "jolts" or does it become the tipping point that truly reverses a trend which was waiting for an ignition spark?
A final observation sums up the underlying but unspoken concern about the whole system of governmental collected and reported figures. The world's most important investor (Alan Greenspan) obviously relies on these figures to make financial and monetary decisions. It is disconcerting to read how many of these indicators are less than what one would expect them to be. Whether Greenspan can make the correct decisions based on sometimes questionable statistics is a question that perhaps will never be answered.
In the mean time, we can all learn a lot about the "numbers" that have an increasingly important impact on our daily lives, to say nothing of our investments.
Read it and consider your options.
For a different angle on how the markets work see Ron Insana's excellent "The Message of the Markets" (2000) and "Trendwatching" (2002) which deal with the reality of prices rather than suppositions.

37 of 38 people found the following review helpful:

3.0 out of 5 stars A Good Reference Guide to Economic Indicators and Their Sources, February 6, 2006

By 

Hawkeye Richardson "Author of -- Getting Your... (Tucson, AZ) - See all my reviews

This review is from: The Secrets of Economic Indicators: Hidden Clues to Future Economic Trends and Investment Opportunities (Hardcover)

This book by Baumohl is a good book to have in one's reference library if you use government and private indicators to try to ascertain where the economy and, more specifically, the stock market might be headed. Bernard has not only listed all the most common indicators, but has given the source, quality, reliability, timing, and importance of each indicator upon the markets.

Will this book make you a better trader or investor? By itself, probably not. But, it is always useful to understand what indicators the 'general public' is viewing and how these indicators tend to impact on an un-informed investor's actions. It is probably a book more useful to a seasoned investor who is continuing to work to improve his investment analysis methods and his understanding of how various indicators can 'psychologically' impact the markets.