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Security Valuation and Risk Analysis: Assessing Value in Investment Decision-Making [Hardcover]

Kenneth S. Hackel
4.2 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (4 customer reviews)

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Book Description

October 20, 2010 0071744355 978-0071744355 1

A superior new replacement to traditional discounted cash flow valuation models

Executives and corporate finance practitioners now have a more reliable discount rate to value companies and make important business and investment decisions. In today's market, it’s free cash flow, cost of capital and return on invested capital that really matters, and now there's a superior tool to help analyze these metrics—Security Valuation and Risk Analysis.

In this pioneering book, valuation authority Kenneth Hackel presents his next-generation methodology for placing a confident value on an enterprise and identifying discrepancies in value—a system that will provide even the most well-informed investor with an important competitive advantage.

At the core of Security Valuation and Risk Analysis is Hackel's successful credit model for determining an accurate fair value and reliable discount rate for a company. Using free cash flow as the basis for evaluating return on invested capital is the most effective method for determining value. Hackel takes you step by step through years of compelling evidence that shows how his method has earned outsized returns and helped turn around companies that were heading toward failure.

Whether used for corporate portfolio strategy, acquisitions, or performance management, the tools presented in Security Valuation and Risk Analysis are unmatched in their accuracy and reliability. Reading through this informative book, you'll discover how to:

  • Take advantage of early warning signs related to cash flow and credit metrics
  • Estimate the cost of equity capital from which free cash flows are discounted
  • Identify where management can free up resources by using a better definition of free cash flow

Security Valuation and Risk Analysis provides a complete education on cash flow and credit, from how traditional analysts value a company and spot market mispricing (and why many of those traditional methods are obsolete) to working with the most recent financial innovations, including derivatives, special purpose entities, pensions, and more.

Security Valuation and Risk Analysis is your answer to a credit market gone bad, from an expert who knows bad credit from good.


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Editorial Reviews

About the Author

Kenneth S. Hackel is president of CT Capital LLC, an investment advisory firm, and founder and past president of Systematic Financial Management, Inc. An internationally recognized expert in security analysis, he has managed the nation's leading mutual fund, a very successful investment advisory firm, and has consulted and written on mergers and acquisitions and fairness opinions. Hackel lives in Alpine, NJ.

Product Details

  • Hardcover: 614 pages
  • Publisher: McGraw-Hill; 1 edition (October 20, 2010)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0071744355
  • ISBN-13: 978-0071744355
  • Product Dimensions: 7.7 x 1.8 x 9.5 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 2.7 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
  • Average Customer Review: 4.2 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (4 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #945,135 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

More About the Author

Kenneth S. Hackel is founder and President of CT Capital LLC, an institutional investment advisory firm specializing in the analysis of corporate cash flow and cost of capital in investment decision making. Until 1996, he was President of Systematic Financial Management Inc., (SFM) a multi-billion dollar institutional investment firm he founded in 1982. At SFM, Kenneth successfully implemented his free cash flow-based investment philosophy in managing funds for institutional investors across multiple US equity investment disciplines.

Kenneth's upcoming book, "Security Valuation and Risk Analysis: Assessing Value in Investment Decision-Making", to be published by McGraw Hill later this November, significantly extends the theories and analysis presented in his earlier book, "Cash Flow and Security Analysis," 2nd edition (McGraw Hill, 1995). His new book provides extensive analysis and discussion of innovative, fundamental methods and models for a more accurate determination of cost of capital and return on invested capital. The models are based on cash flows and extensive credit analysis. To this end, half the book is devoted to the understanding of cash flow; half to cost of capital, as risk to cash flows are meticulously expounded upon. The analysis of risk and credit represents, according to Mr. Hackel, the single most important under-explored factor in security analysis and the primary reason for investor disappointment of their investment returns.

He posits that using fundamental factors to calculate cost of equity capital (reflecting a company's operating and financial risk, capital structure, and miscellaneous intrinsic items) and return on invested capital based upon free cash flow generation (in lieu of traditional earnings or EBITDA-based measures) more accurately reflect the underlying financial profitability and stability of a firm, its growth potential and value enhancement level. Using a more robust discount rate (to model and discount free cash flows) to arrive at 'fair value' will provide a more accurate comparison to current valuation levels, thus leading to more accurate trading signals. He illustrates the use of a comprehensive cost of capital credit worksheet utilizing 60+ credit variables in place of the popular Capital Asset Pricing Model in divining an entity's true cost of equity, which results in superior investment performance with considerably lower risk.

Also explored in detail are those necessary adjustments to cash flow from operating activities to give the analyst a normalized computation.

He also explains how return on invested capital should be measured, including firms which are service-based.


Ken is the author of many articles on security valuation and analysis, and pioneered the analysis of determining savings in supply chain and other discretionary areas, which could boost free cash flows. He is internationally recognized as a leading expert in valuation analysis, having also created the use of free cash flow in lieu of EBITDA in ROIC analysis. EBITDA, he explains, is a deficient metric, in many respects.

Ken is accepted to be the sole investment advisor in US equity mutual fund history to take over management of the worst performing mutual fund, and in a single year turn it into the best performing fund.

With over 35 years of investment experience, he has consulted on mergers and acquisitions, including fairness opinions. His work has been published in leading academic journals as well as leading financial news media, and is quoted worldwide. He is a graduate of City College of New York and earned his MBA (Finance) from Baruch College.

His blog may be read at www.credittrends.com and his twitter @credittrends.

Customer Reviews

4.2 out of 5 stars
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4.2 out of 5 stars
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Most Helpful Customer Reviews
2 of 4 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars Brilliant work December 10, 2010
By Zoe
Format:Hardcover
This book is brillliant. It brings to light a far superior method of risk analysis than either I learned in grad school, or have used in my research reports. I highly recommend reading this cover to cover.
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5 of 9 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars the new standard in cash flow analysis November 10, 2010
By Jon
Format:Hardcover|Amazon Verified Purchase
This book is great for anybody who cares about cash flow. It goes into detail how investors should think about risk and the proper discount method. Anybody who wants to know about how to value a security needs to buy this book.
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5 of 10 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars Excellent Work November 5, 2010
By Jason
Format:Hardcover
A great book grounded in reality. It provides a pragmatic way to analyze securities while giving a framework for subjective analysis.
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