For over 30 years, the Royal Dutch/Shell Group has used these scenarios to identify business risks and opportunities in ways forecasts cannot. Now for the first time these scenerios are available to the public. This book portrays three plausible futures with contrasting economic, political, and regulatory features and distinct implications for the energy system.
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Most Helpful Customer Reviews
10 of 10 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
Essential reading about the forces shaping the world,
By
This review is from: Shell Global Scenarios to 2025 (Spiral-bound)
The Shell Global Scenarios is an outstanding example of the craft of scenario design as well as a creative and insightful look at the forces shaping the world. The text is well written. The graphics are memorable and thought provoking. The commentaries by leading thinkers from various fields add depth. Scenario design can take many forms and be adapted for many purposes. The Shell approach is arguably the best for understanding and speculating about issues that cut across multiple socio-economic, technical, and political dimensions. Modern scenario design began with Herman Kahn and Anthony Wiener's "The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation"(MacMillan, 1967). While we can be entertained by the misdirection of many of their speculative conclusions, their framework set the stage for much of the scenario work that has followed. My only regret about the excellent Shell effort is that Pierre Wack is given credit for coining the term "scenario." While Wack is a giant in this field, the credit for introducing "scenario" in the modern use of the term should go to Kahn and Wiener.
8 of 9 people found the following review helpful:
3.0 out of 5 stars
Too much "design" not enough ideas,
By Jeff McNeill (Green Cove Springs, FL) - See all my reviews
This review is from: Shell Global Scenarios to 2025 (Spiral-bound)
Shell was one of the earliest innovators in the area of scenario planning, and they have done extremely well by this method. Quite a few excellent authors have come out of Shell, such as Kees van der Heijden's books Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation and The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios.
This book is disappointing for a number of reasons. This is meant to be a popular book, with lots of nice visual effects. Sadly, the content could and the unwieldy shape and heft reduced to a thin paperback, and it should have been. The binding itself is atrocious, and simply does not work. Sigh. That said, there is a good amount of conceptual material here to chew on for the upcoming years, though it will likely not remain viable all the way until 2025. There are three main configurations plotted in the book: low trust globalization, "open doors", and "flags". In LTG, security and market efficiencies are the overriding factors driving the shape of things to come, and social cohesion or the "force of community" is weaker than the other two forces. In open doors, social cohesion and market incentives combine for a more fruitful outcome (both economically and socially). In flags, community and security overcome market incentives and a more distrustful and nationalistic scenario emerges, the darkest of the three broad global scenarios. These broad possible areas are then reflected through a wide range of issues from demography and migrations, to African futures, to climate change and biodiversity, and to legal and regulatory environments, among others. Good content, flawed format.
1 of 2 people found the following review helpful:
4.0 out of 5 stars
If only more companies opened this level of insight,
By APJ (Australia) - See all my reviews
This review is from: Shell Global Scenarios to 2025 (Spiral-bound)
Amazing... a real view into how executives contemplate various world events and how they will impact on their organisation. A must read for any executive, business planner or consultant.
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Inside This Book
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First Sentence:
Over the last three decades, Shell has developed Global Scenarios to cast light on the context in which the Group operates, to identify emerging challenges and to foster adaptability to change. Read the first page Key Phrases - Capitalized Phrases (CAPs): (learn more)
Low Trust Globalisation, Middle East, Trilemma Triangle, New York, Kyoto Protocol, Nation State, Saudi Arabia, Market State, United States, North America, Foreign Affairs, Latin America, Fred Bergsten, Business Class, Communist Party, European Union, South China Sea, Soviet Union, Cultural Revolution, Doha Round, Financial Times, Oxford University Press, Deutsche Bank, Michael Mussa, Millennium Development Goals New!
Concordance | Text Stats Browse Sample Pages:
Front Cover | Table of Contents | First Pages | Index | Back Cover | Surprise Me!
Over the last three decades, Shell has developed Global Scenarios to cast light on the context in which the Group operates, to identify emerging challenges and to foster adaptability to change. Read the first page Key Phrases - Capitalized Phrases (CAPs): (learn more)
Low Trust Globalisation, Middle East, Trilemma Triangle, New York, Kyoto Protocol, Nation State, Saudi Arabia, Market State, United States, North America, Foreign Affairs, Latin America, Fred Bergsten, Business Class, Communist Party, European Union, South China Sea, Soviet Union, Cultural Revolution, Doha Round, Financial Times, Oxford University Press, Deutsche Bank, Michael Mussa, Millennium Development Goals New!
Concordance | Text Stats Browse Sample Pages:
Front Cover | Table of Contents | First Pages | Index | Back Cover | Surprise Me!
Citations (learn more)
This book cites 18
books:
See all 18 books this book cites
- Governance and Risk by George Dallas on page 35
- Islam and Society in Turkey by David Shankland on page 84
- World Economic Outlook: April 2002 : Recessions and Recoveries by International Monetary Fund on page 165
- What If? by Shari Low on page 200
- Our Common Interest (Commission for Africa) by The Commission on page 149
See all 18 books this book cites
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