Customer Reviews

Will the Soviet Union Survive Until 1984 (Harper Colophon Books)

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I read this book as a college sophomore in 1977. Although it seemed incredible that the U.S.S.R. might be on the brink of collapse, by the time I was finished, Amalrik had me convinced.

The book is not an easy read, but it is a worthwhile one, even today. Amalrik cited three reasons why the U.S.S.R. was doomed (the fact that it was surrounded by enemies, its simmering ethnic rivalries, especially between "blue eyes" [Russians] and "brown eyes" [the Turkic peoples of the Southern Republics], and the failure to build a society based on law). In the wake of the disintegration of the Soviet Union and its aftermath, his analysis has been proven to be dead on.

In particular, while I couldn't see it at the time, I now understand why crime became such a massive problem in the wake of the Soviet Union's fall. As Amalrik speaks of the dissolution of ethics, especially among the young, one can't help but think of Russia's new thuggish "elite". The book provides an excellent insight into where they came from, and why.

Of course, books that are classics have another aspect to them: they not only elucidate, but also influence. This book circulated in samizdat (Russ, "mimeo") for a couple of years before reaching the West; the publisher believed that over 50,000 copies were smuggled around the Soviet Union.

Thus, the irony of the title: 1984 was the year that the old guard passed from the scene, and Gorbachev's clique began its rise to power. Looking at Gorbachev's program ("glasnost", "perestroika", and the "New Thinking" in foreign policy, couple with his willingness to cut loose the Eastern European satellites and the Balts), one has to wonder: did the Gorbachevs read this book, and were the policies they enacted a last-ditch effort to stave off the inevitable?

I would not at all be surprised to learn that this was indeed the case.

I recently reread this book which I had obtained and read years ago. The book was very close to the mark. I have read about the transitions in Poland. The Polish leaders went to Russia and were allowed to go back to Poland after giving only promises. I wondered why this happened, and Amalrik's book contains statements that show the situation and how it was changing at that time, 1970, before the later events.

Reading the book as US and Russian supply planes were crossing the Mediterannean Sea in the 1973 October war, it was difficult to see what was coming. Andrei should commended for seeing much more than most.

Note that 1984 was an arbitrary date, chosen because of Orwell's book.
Also, note that Almarik was killed in a supposed auto "accident" in Spain
in the 1980's. Perhaps a KGB assasination? In any case, it is unfortunate
that he did not live to see the breakup of the Soviet Union by 1990.