Customer Reviews

Stock Trader's Almanac 2004 (Almanac Investor Series)

5 star:		(7)
4 star:		(2)
3 star:		(0)
2 star:		(0)
1 star:		(0)

 

 

The average investor probably believes that stock prices are a "random walk" and that no one can benefit from analyzing stock market price history. These investors would be "wrong" as is the case with most of the conventional wisdom on Wall Street. The stock market exhibits many recurrent calendar-based patterns that intelligent investors can use to enhance their personal investment results while decreasing risk.

This calendar/organizer/planner is in its 37th edition and the authors have done a masterful job or presenting the information in a useful and easy-to-understand manner. They've provided investors with a complete historical perspective on daily, weekly, monthly, and annual stock market patterns and strategies.

There is particularly useful data on how to take advantage of the presidential four-year cycles, the best six months strategy for the DJIA and S&P500, the best eight-month strategy for the NASDAQ Composite, and the strongest and weakest months of the year.

Traders as well as short-term and long-term investors will all benefit from the insights provided in this "gem" of an investment almanac. Traders, in particular, can benefit from the many daily and holiday market patterns occur with a high frequency. Every person who invests in the stock market, without taking into account the vital information in this almanac, should not complain about his or her poor performance.

Also included in this almanac are monthly percentage and point moves in the S&P 500 and DJIA from 1950 through June 2003, and the entire NASDAQ Composite data from 1971 to June 2003. Tables listing the 10 and 20 best and worst days and weeks and the 20 best and worst months in percentage and point terms since 1901 are also provided.

In summary, the Stock Trader's Almanac is a masterpiece of stock market history that keeps getting better every year. It is an indispensable guide to successful investing. I highly recommend it to all investors and traders.

This is the third year in a row I have reviewed this almanac. Clearly I believe there is real value in this tome. The introduction last year had the quote "We discovered that while stocks do indeed fluctuate, they do so in well-defined, often predictable patterns. These patterns recur too frequently to be the result of chance or coincidence." in the introduction. In this book you will find a compilation of money making market anomalies. If you believe the market is efficient this is not the book for you.

In the prior edition was an extensive review of the effect of the pre-presidential election year. It would have been a great tip off to the rally that began in March of 2003. There hasn't been a losing year in the Dow 30 since FDR. If you had reviewed this page you would not have been caught flatfooted. (see page 42 & 30). In this year you can review the historical track record of election year markets (pg 34).

In fairness, the Lester indicator (on page 40) was misleading in 2003 as the Dec 2002 low was violates and then the S & P roared to new highs in March. It was tradeable in that with proper risk control you could have made a 4%+gain, below the average listed as 10.7%.

Sometimes there is additional work you can do to make the #s more understandable. I went to page 18 to calculate the net Feb-Dec return of the respective January Effect listings (after all, aren't you most interested in how it performs after you get the signal?). For the record, it was not a good signal this year.

There is a review of Larry William's "The Right Stock at the Right Time". The review mentions many market anomalies like are found in the Almanac. I will make a point to read this book. I read the book reviewed in the 1993 edition and it was exactly as represented, so I have great confidence that this review is spot on as well. There are several other investment books as well on page 98

If you want to play the various oddities to beat the market, this book makes it simple. Since it has a week by week calendar, it could be your organizer. Imagine that, an organizer that makes you money.

"We discovered that while stocks do indeed fluctuate, they do so in well-defined, often predictable patterns. These patterns recur too frequently to be the result of chance or coincidence."

Thus begins this book in the introduction to the 36th edition. If you believe that days of the week, times of the year and part of the election cycle affect the stock market, then this book may contain many useful information points and actionable strategies. If not, read no further.

This edition contains much about the 3rd year of the presidential term and its prior effects on the stock markets. Page 42 (charts on page 30) contains a summary from 1915-1999. I shouldn't mention what it says, but the effect has been powerful in the prior observances. There is an actionable strategy in the book.

At the beginning of each month there is a summary of how that month had performed in prior years and how that might be best used in 2003.

The research that has been done into the January effect and the Santa Clause Rally is explained and action points are given. You can use this almanac to time your participation in the rally.

On page 52 is the summary of the "best 6 months" with an actionable strategy that, if it holds, will pay for this book and many others. It is powerful not only because of its simplicity, but because it takes advantage of many not easily noticed trends. This one stratagem makes the book worthy by itself.

Of interest are the reviews of a book about trading that the author/editor thought worthy of note. A review by Rockefeller of Trading Classic Chart Patterns is this year's added bonus (it is a reprint of a review from a magazine).

The book has a calendar with one week per page. You can use it as a substitute for a daytimer, though there isn't a tremndous amount of room on each day for notes. Imagine that, a daytimer that makes you money.

Investors should pay close attention to the Stock Trader's Almanac, it can explain cyclical moves in the market, and help you time your investments for maximum results. There are times when your risk in the market can be high, and you should think of playing capital preservation versus capital accumulation, this book will help you learn valuable insights in technical analysis to understand risk levels. Any investor who leaves technical analysis out of the equation can suffer bad timing, even when investing in an equity who's fundamentals look great!
With this being an presidential election year, there will be some important reading on how markets react before the election, no matter who is in office, Republican or Democrat.
If you are a seasoned professional, a day-trader, or a weekend on-line investor, the Stock Trader's Almanac should always be close to your computer.

This is a perfect antidote to all who are convinced that stock market is nothing more than speculation, or as others put it a "random" walk. This is an excellent resource for any "technical" investor or observer of market mega trends. In a very easy-to-read format, pertinent information for each trading day is provided to help form a general sense of what trading can be expected based on historical trends. The probability of that direction is also clearly stated helping the reader to "weigh" the observed patterns with his or her own specific strategy. The information is available for different time horizons - daily, week and month. The value of the information is evident from the fact that the almanac has existed for a really long time (1976, I believe). This is a must-have for anyone who has some conviction in the power of historical data, technical investing, and a reasonable doubt on the theory of market efficiency. Happy trading in 2005!

The Stock Trader's Almanac has already helped me with my trades.

What does it do?

It tells you what has happened in the Dow and Nasdaq in the passt so that you can predict with fairly good accuracy what will happen in the future. It also tells you in very plain English what the seasonal trends have been and what trends have been in pre and post presidential elections.

I would highly recommend this book.

The Stock Trader's Almanac tells you what has happened historically in the market so that you can predict with fairly good accuracy what will happen in the future.

For example: The Day after most holidays are almost always great for the market. An exception is the day after Easter which is almost always a down day in the market but the Tuesday after Easter usually surges. I read that information, checked my charts, and placed my orders accordingly. Guess what? The market performed exactly as it's historical record predicted.

This book is a wonderful source of seasonal trends and historical data. After all to ignore the past is to go blindly into the future.

I would highly recommend this book.

I've been investing and trading for 24 years and it's just been recently (in the last 5 years) that I have discovered how well it pays to be a historian when it comes stocks. The almanac is an essential tool for any serious market historian and is packed full of useful information relevant to minor to major market trends and statistics that should be in the minds of anyone who wants to make money trading stocks. This book costs you nothing. It will pay for itself.

A reasonably good reference book on historical stock market data. It was never designed to teach derivatives trading, long/short executions or day trading. It is historical reference data to be taken and used as you wish.

Mr. Twain was far too harsh on the book and makes one wonder if he has ever invested serious money ( $ 500,000.00+ ) ,in the markets whether he was long, short or day trading. Crabel and Rashke advocate short term trading, not strategic or tactical investing. The Stock Trader's Almanac is better used as an investing tool for those that like to revisit historical perspectives, I have used it on occasion myself. The book is well worth $ 13.98 especially as an educational tool for the novice.

I am a professional stock investor / trader and average a net profit income of $ 250,000.00+ yearly from a total investment of $ 750,000.00 in the markets. I go long, short, equities, commodities, etc. I still refer to the Almanac on occasion and likely will continue to do so.