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Stock Trader's Almanac 2013 Spiral-bound


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Product Details

  • Spiral-bound: 192 pages
  • Publisher: Wiley; 9 edition (October 23, 2012)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 111815987X
  • ISBN-13: 978-1118159873
  • Product Dimensions: 9.2 x 6.9 x 0.9 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 1 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
  • Average Customer Review: 4.5 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (32 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #110,531 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

Editorial Reviews

Amazon.com Review

Q & A with Jeffrey Hirsch, Editor-in-Chief of Stock Trader's Almanac

Jeffrey A. Hirsch
Jeffrey A. Hirsch
What is the biggest trend in the markets to watch for 2013 and how can investors prepare for it?

There are three key trends for investors to prepare for in 2013. We remain in a secular bear market that began in January 2000 and will likely continue for another five-six years, depending on how the end of combat operations in Afghanistan play out and how quickly the world's debt, deficit, recession and financial woes are remedied.

The four-year presidential cycle has created a pattern where post-election years are the worst performing. Unless a full-blown bear market occurs in 2012 or the market slogs along into the New Year, market gains will be harder to come by in 2013 than they have since the March 2009 bottom. Seasonal economic behavior has pushed most of the market gains into the six consecutive months November through April. So investors should be prepared for lackluster market action in the latter half of 2013 by taking profits and getting defensive in the spring.

What differentiates the Stock Trader's Almanac approach to investing from other approaches out in the market?

The Almanac has been instrumental, if not the foremost champion, in convincing investors, traders and money managers of the importance and benefits of using historical market cycle analysis to increase profits and reduce risk. Our extensive knowledge and understanding of recurring market cycles and seasonal patterns is used in conjunction with fundamental analysis, technical analysis, and economic and monetary policy analysis. We also take into consideration sentiment and psychological factors as well as market internals.

The Almanac is often quoted in the media and is famously known for a few key indicators that you follow. What are these indicators and how can investors trade them?

Perhaps the most well know is the January Barometer. Devised by Yale Hirsch in 1972, our January Barometer states that as the S&P 500 goes in January, so goes the year. The indicator has registered only seven major errors since 1950 for an 88.7% accuracy ratio. Bear markets began or continued when Januarys suffered a loss. Should January 2013 be down, that would be a signal that 2013 is going to be a tough year for stocks.

But before the January Barometer's reading is registered there is the Santa Claus Rally. Santa Claus tends to come to Wall Street nearly every year, bringing a short, sweet, respectable rally within the last five days of the year and the first two in January. This has been good for an average 1.6% gain since 1969 (1.5% since 1950). Santa's failure to show tends to precede bear markets, or times stocks could be purchased later in the year at much lower prices. When we discovered this phenomenon in 1972, we coined the phrase: "If Santa Claus Should Fail to Call, Bears May Come to Broad and Wall."

The most reliable trading pattern is our Best Six Months Switching Strategy. The saying "Sell in May and Go Away" has become quite well know. But I am amazed at how few fail to realize, and capitalize, on the flip side of this phenomenon. You can't sell in May if you don't buy in October. Investing in the Dow Jones Industrial Average between November 1st and April 30th each year and then switching into fixed income for the other six months has produced reliable returns with reduced risk since 1950. Our Best Months Switching Strategy will not make you an instant millionaire, as other strategies claim they can do. What it will do is steadily build wealth over time with half the risk (or less) of a "buy and hold" approach.


From the Book: Trends to Watch and Trade in 2013

Post-Election Years Worst Year of the Four-Year-Cycle: Paying the Piper

It is no mere coincidence that the last two years (pre-election year and election year) of the 45 administrations since 1833 produced a total net market gain of 724.0%, dwarfing the 273.1% gain of the first two years of these administrations. Politics being what it is, incumbent administrations during election years try to make the economy look good to impress the electorate and tend to put off unpopular decisions until the votes are counted. This produces an American phenomenon-the Post-Election Year Syndrome. The year begins with an Inaugural Ball, after which the piper must be paid, and we Americans have often paid dearly in the past 99 years.

Market Behavior After Sitting President Wins And Losses

Since the inception of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1896, there have been 19 presidential elections that a sitting president was running for reelection. The Dow posted gains in 9 of these 19 post-election years. A struggling economy, European financial and political duress, ongoing foreign military operations, and a divided Washington are likely to keep a lid on the market in 2013. Prospects for 2013 improve should the market decline dramatically during the latter part of 2012.

Post-Election Year Performance by Party

There is a dramatic difference in market performance under the two parties in postelection and midterm years the last 15 administrations. More bear markets and negative market action have plagued Republican administrations in the post-election year whereas the midterm year has been worse under Democrats.

Market Fares Better Under Democrats; Dollar Holds Up Under Republicans

Since 1901, the Dow has averaged annual gains of 6.4% during Republican eras while the dollar has declined to 29 cents. During Democratic eras, the Dow has average annual gains of 13.0% and the dollar has declined to 11 cents. Under Obama, the Dow has gained 28.5% while the dollar has lost 5.8%, since Election Day 2008. There have been 14 recessions and 18 bear markets under the Republicans and 7 recessions and 16 bear markets under the Democrats.

Republican Congress & Democratic President Best for the Market

Historical performance of the Dow under Democratic and Republican presidents demonstrates a pattern that is contrary to popular belief. Under a Democrat, the Dow has performed better than under a Republican. The Dow has historically returned 10.0% under Democrats compared to 6.8% under a Republican executive.

With total Republican control of Washington, the Dow has been up on average 14.1%. Democrats in power of the two branches have produced an average Dow gain of 7.4%. When power is split, with a Republican president and a Democratic Congress or a split Congress, the Dow has not done very well, averaging only a 5.4% gain. The best scenario for all investors has been a Democrat in the White House and Republican control of Congress, with average gains of 19.5%.

From the Back Cover

Praise for Stock Trader's Almanac

"Historical price patterns continue to work because human nature doesn't change, and neither does the law of supply and demand. Study past successful stocks if you want to know what future ones will look like. Stock Trader's Almanac is all about historical facts."
—William J. O'Neil, Chairman and founder, Investor's Business Daily

"All my almost four decades in professional investing, I've found this annual tour de force fascinating. There is a lot of provocative here to whet your whistle and adrenaline-rush your curiosity. If you don't find something here that tickles your mind, you probably don't have one."
—Ken Fisher, CEO and founder, Fisher Investments, 28-year Forbes columnist, and author of Markets Never Forget (But People Do) and The Only Three Questions That Still Count

"The Stock Trader's Almanac is a treasure-trove of solid gold investment nuggets. No serious trader should have it far from his hands."
—John Mauldin, author of Bull's Eye Investing and Editor of Thoughts from the Frontline newsletter

"A venerable guide for Wall Street's farmers to plant and harvest investments according to the season."
—Jonathan Burton,, MarketWatch

"Whether I am researching seasonality trends or old Wall Street sayings, or am simply in need of some good old-fashioned investment horse sense, I start with the Stock Trader's Almanac. I have been a student of Yale and Jeffrey Hirsch's Almanac research for years, and look forward to future lessons."
—Sam Stovall, Chief Equity Strategist, Standard & Poor's Capital IQ


More About the Author

Jeffrey A. Hirsch is president of the Hirsch Organization, editor-in-chief of the Stock Trader's Almanac® (Wiley), Almanac Investor newsletter and www.stocktradersalmanac.com. He started with the Hirsch Organization in 1990 as a market analyst and historian under the mentorship of his father Yale Hirsch. He was handed the reigns in 2000 and continues to run the operation from his Nyack, New York offices. Jeffrey regularly appears on major news networks such as CNBC, CNN, Bloomberg and Fox News. As well as writing numerous financial columns and is widely quoted in all of the major newspapers and financial publications.

Customer Reviews

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Highly Recommended for any serious trader.
George D. Minton
I buy the Stock Trader's Almanac every year and use it along with ResearchTrade.com to guide me in all my stock and option trades.
TrendTrader
Jeffery Hirsch's Almanac series is a very valuable source of historical information available no where else in as compact a form.
Glenn Barrows

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

6 of 6 people found the following review helpful By George D. Minton on December 1, 2012
Format: Spiral-bound Verified Purchase
Highly Recommended for any serious trader. Trading is all about probabilities and this calendar book is chock full of all kinds of information for the serious trader. The calendar shows probabilities of a successful trade based on over 20 years of market data for each day for the Dow, S&P, and the Nasdaq. In addition, it oulines several rocking good trading strategies, to include best 8 days, presidential election cycle, best 6 months (S&P and Dow) and best 8 months (Nasdaq), sector seasonality and others. I live by this book when entering trades and determing whether I want to hold a trade into the next day or days. This is a must read in additon to using this to record daily balances for my accounts so I can go back and review them quickly to determine progress in my trading. If you are serious and want an edge this is a must have. You can also subscribe to the Stock Traders Almanac for entry and exit emails using these strategies. Good trading and leave some for me...
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4 of 4 people found the following review helpful By AT on December 20, 2012
Format: Spiral-bound Verified Purchase
I have been getting these for years. They are jam packed with information. However, the information does not change markedly from year to year. Even though he does a lot with seasonality, there is a lot more that can be gleaned from statistical analysis of historical data.
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3 of 3 people found the following review helpful By Steve K on February 28, 2013
Format: Spiral-bound Verified Purchase
I cannot believe that I have gone all these years putting together trends and other observations that are readily available in this Almanac. I have used it since the beginning of the year and it is a great guide on market trends. It also offers some valuable insights on what to expect on any given day of the year not to mention the daily quotes that are provided for each day of the week.

Going forward, this is going to be part of my investing tools.
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3 of 3 people found the following review helpful By Mike VINE VOICE on February 26, 2013
Format: Spiral-bound Verified Purchase
I've bought this for the last few years, and while it doesn't change tremedously from year to year, as some people have mentioned, each subsequent year incorporates the previous year's data, making it 100% worth it. I also use it as my desk calendar (it has neat quotes for every day, not just financial info!). At the reasonable price of <$30, it's not exactly breaking the bank to pick up a new one every year either.

I'm mostly a fundamentals kind of guy, but as anyone could tell you, you'd be daft not to look at technicals a bit too. This calendar does a great job of listing technicals on whether a particular day tends towards bullish or bearish (and other relevant financial things such as options expirations, labor reports, etc). Knowing information each day, week and month, and season, make your trades and enter/exit opportunities all the more profitable.

If you are in stocks, you need to buy this. Period. Highest possible recommendation.
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2 of 2 people found the following review helpful By Jay on February 18, 2013
Format: Spiral-bound Verified Purchase
I've bought and read Hirsch's Stock Trader's Almanac each year for over 25 years. It is THE place to go for historical statistics regarding the markets. The Almanac not only provides historical data, but also various interpretations of the data in an effort to help you make more money in the markets in the future. If you are a student of the financial markets, you cannot be without this book.
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1 of 1 people found the following review helpful By Richard L. Bubb II on June 29, 2013
Format: Spiral-bound Verified Purchase
Very good source of data, and spaces available to write notes and computations.
Been using STA for years now. Never disappointed,
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1 of 1 people found the following review helpful By J. Ross on June 21, 2013
Format: Spiral-bound Verified Purchase
This series of books is indispensable for seeing trends throughout the past century of trading. Lots of tactics and strategies to use in trading stocks and bonds. Excellent addition to the investor's library.
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1 of 1 people found the following review helpful By burien top team on March 4, 2013
Format: Spiral-bound Verified Purchase
I've been following the stock market for more than a decade now (as a writer for S&C magazine, editor for TradingMarkets.com. etc.) I don't trade based on the Almanac, but it is a great guide to tendencies in the market and I buy a copy every year.
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