Customer Reviews

Storm Watchers: The Turbulent History of Weather Prediction from Franklin's Kite to El Nino

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For a meteorologist, this is clearly a must read if you're at all interested in knowing more about some of the most influential people in our field. The author obviously has done considerable homework and made some of the pioneers in this field come alive, instead of just being names and old b&w photographs. Since the book is unprecedented and I didn't know many of these people personally, it's not possible for me to say how accurate these word descriptions are, but they have the "ring of truth" to me. Some very interesting parallels can be drawn from the past to the present with the information in this terrific book!

Anyone who watched the incredible computer-generated graphics of Hurricane Ike nearing the coast of Texas this month might find this book quite fascinating. It traces the history of weather prediction and the development of the science of meteorology over the past 200 years and an interesting story it is, replete with colorful individual geniuses who pushed the frontiers of knowledge forward -- and dumb bureaucrats and politicians who tried to block them at every turn.
The book begins with Benjamin Franklin who was the first to notice that the winds in a storm moving northwards might actually be blowing in a southerly direction. But most of the other men profiled in this book who made the most striking contributions to meteoroloy -- Americans, Britons and most noticeably Norwegians and Swedes -- I had never heard of.
There was the chemist Luke Howard who classified the different kinds of clouds and gave them the names we know today -- cumulus, stratus, nimbus.
William Redfield was not a trained scientist but in 1821 the New Yorker was the first to describe the circular motion of winds in a hurricane. Twenty years later, Elias Loomis, a professor of mathematics and philosophy, was the first to produce a weather map. But for much of the 19th century, weather forecasting faced tremendous opposition from those who said it was contrary to God's will as well as producers of popular almanacs who faced the loss of their business.
Robert FitzRoy, who captained the Royal Navy ship The Beagle which took Charles Darwin on his historic voyage to the Galapagos, coined the word "forecasting." But progress in the United States ground to a halt after the Civil War when weather prediction was placed under the control of the Army. Things grew even worse at the end of the 19th century when political appointees hostile to science took over in the administration of Grover Cleveland.
The comparison to today's debate over global warming and the Bush administration's refusal for so many years to admit the problem, much less grapple with it, are too obvious to be ignored, though the author of this book does not belabor them.
The consequences of blindly ignoring science were graphically and tragically demonstrated in the great hurricane that destroyed Galveston in 1900. Isaac Cline was in charge of weather forecasts in the city, though he was not a leading scientist. He baldly stated, based on no reliable data, there was no chance of a hurricane striking Galveston. He encouraged the city fathers to demolish the sea wall protecting the city. The government also took the distastrous step of denying weather watchers in Cuba access to the telegraph system because "hurricane warnings unnecessarily riled the natives." After the disaster in which he lost his own wife, Cline launched a coverup, falsely stating that he had posted hurricane warnings -- and emerged a hero.
There are many fascinating stories in this book which is a stark warning of what happens when politicians and bureaucrats hostile to science start their meddling. In 1944, there was a tremendous battle between two forecasters, one renowned scientist Sverre Petterssen and the other Irving Krick, a charlatan who had somehow built himself a career in the field. They disagreed over the weather on the day set aside for the D-Day landings in Normandy. Thank God Petterssen prevailed. If General Eisenhower had listened to Krick, who assured him the weather would be fine, the landings would have been a disaster. Thankfully he heeded Petterssen's advice and postponed the landings by one day.
There are some faults with this book. The writing can be a bit plodding and the characters hardly burst to life from the page. Still, I found it wonderfully interesting and recommend it to anyone who would like to know about the nightly weather forecasts we now take for granted.

John Cox is, and has always been, a phenomenal reporter and writer. This book deserves to be widely read. As a work of history, it is very much welcome -- a book that sheds light on the past of a subject which is, too often, shrouded in myth.
-- Keay Davidson, Science Writer, San Francisco Chronicle

This fantastic book by John D. Cox traces the development of our ability to observe and predict the weather, with the emphasis on the latter. He does this by focusing on the contributions of twenty-eight individuals, starting with Benjamin Franklin, through to Ants Leetmaa with his bold El-Nino prediction for the winter of 1997-98. There are five parts to the book: A Newborn Babe, American Storms, The Main Artery, Together at the Front, and Suddenly New Science. The meteorological and oceanographic pioneers are placed in the appropriate part and in the 28 chapters; Cox relates the contributions of each of the individuals. All of them, save for Leetmaa, end with a thorough accounting of the circumstances of their decline and death; Leetmaa is still alive and actively contributing to the advancement of long range forecasting. Most chapters are in the range of eight to twelve pages with the longest being the sixteen pages (deservedly) devoted to William Redfield and his investigations of mid-latitude cyclones.

I found it to be particular enlightening to read about Jerome Namias, the first leader of the Extended Forecast Division of the U.S. Weather Bureau, as Cox asserts that he never earned a bachelor's degree, though on checking later I found he did earn an M.S., but no PhD, as Cox accurately noted. Reading about Sverre Petterssen's contributions to the forecast for the D-Day invasion of 6 June 1944 is particularly enjoyable. As an Air Force Weather guy for the past 38 years, it was neat to see that Petterssen was the first AWS Chief Scientist. The slams that Cox makes on Irving Krick in his endeavors seem particularly well targeted. I knew Krick was a controversial meteorologist, but I had read about equal amounts of praise and criticism of his work. I learned much about LeRoy Meisinger who did so much to advance upper air observations but died tragically in a balloon flight when struck by lightning. I was unaware of his work here in Omaha, where I have lived the past 17 years.

I had to wonder why Matthew Fontaine Maury was included in the book as his chapter seemed to focus more on his lack of accomplishments and flawed ideas than anything positive he might have done. I have read Isaac's Storm, but I learned lots more about Isaac Cline from the seven page chapter devoted to him including his work after the Galveston hurricane of 1900. It turned out he wrote a book, Tropical Cyclones, in 1926; "an important text on the subject." He also served as president of the American Meteorological Society. Only the final chapter--Ants Leetmaa, broke the pattern of the other twenty-seven. It focuses on his bold El-Nino based prediction in 1997 almost entirely. It provides little in the way of biographical information on him. But it does mention how Al Gore managed to insert himself into the fray as probably his initial opportunity to seize the pulpit to preach about the impacts of global warming!

Yes, I do recommend the book and not just for meteorologists or scientists. No equations here and lots of valuable history for those so inclined.