Struck by Lightning: The Curious World of Probabilities [Paperback]

Jeffrey S. Rosenthal (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: March 28, 2006

From terrorist attacks to big money jackpots, "Struck by Lightning" deconstructs the odds and oddities of chance, examining both the relevant and irreverent role of randomness in our everyday lives. Human beings have long been both fascinated and appalled by randomness. On one hand, we love the thrill of a surprise party, the unpredictability of a budding romance, or the freedom of not knowing what tomorrow will bring. We are inexplicably delighted by strange coincidences and striking similarities. But we also hate the uncertainty's dark side. From cancer to SARS, diseases strike with no apparent pattern. Terrorists attack, airplanes crash, bridges collapse, and we never know if we will be that one in a million statistic. We are all constantly faced with situations and choices that involve randomness and uncertainty.A basic understanding of the rules of probability theory, applied to real-life circumstances, can help us to make sense of these situations, to avoid unnecessary fear, to seize the opportunities that randomness presents to us, and to actually enjoy the uncertainties we face. The reality is that when it comes to randomness, you can run, but you can't hide. So many aspects of our lives are governed by events that are simply not in our control. In this entertaining yet sophisticated look at the world of probabilities, author Jeffrey Rosenthalan, an improbably talented math professor explains the mechanics of randomness and teaches us how to develop an informed perspective on probability.

Editorial Reviews

From Publishers Weekly

Statistics and probability made fun, easy and useful for everyday life? Rosenthal does just that by explaining common uses of statistics (such as polling), demonstrating how probability can lead to better decision making (should you ask your cute co-worker out on a date?) and getting downright silly (chapter nine is a noir mystery). The author maintains that our fear of untoward events can be eased with the logic of probability and knowing how to evaluate what the real odds are of such an event occurring. A multitude of applications of "the Probability Perspective" are laid out: calculating average losses at gambling, deciding which coincidences are truly surprising, understanding studies that show that a new drug reduces fatalities from a given disease, playing silly party games and using uncertainty for one's own benefit. Anecdotes—some personal stories, some universal situations—illustrate ways that the probability perspective can set one's mind at ease and help in navigating all aspects of life. The lighthearted presentation ensures that readers will not feel burdened by all the knowledge they are gaining and the concluding summary—disguised as a final exam—is sure to deliver an A to everyone, which is what Rosenthal deserves for this clever book. (Mar.)
Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Book Description

From terrorist attacks to big money jackpots, Struck by Lightning deconstructs the odds and oddities of chance, examining both the relevant and irreverent role of randomness in our everyday lives.Human beings have long been both fascinated and appalled by randomness. On the one hand, we love the thrill of a surprise party, the unpredictability of a budding romance, or the freedom of not knowing what tomorrow will bring. We are inexplicably delighted by strange coincidences and striking similarities. But we also hate uncertainty’s dark side. From cancer to SARS, diseases strike with no apparent pattern. Terrorists attack, airplanes crash, bridges collapse, and we never know if we’ll be that one in a million statistic. We are all constantly faced with situations and choices that involve randomness and uncertainty. A basic understanding of the rules of probability theory, applied to real-life circumstances, can help us to make sense of these situations, to avoid unnecessary fear, to seize the opportunities that randomness presents to us, and to actually enjoy the uncertainties we face. The reality is that when it comes to randomness, you can run, but you can’t hide. So many aspects of our lives are governed by events that are simply not in our control. In this entertaining yet sophisticated look at the world of probabilities, author Jeffrey Rosenthal—an improbably talented math professor— explains the mechanics of randomness and teaches us how to develop an informed perspective on probability.

See all Editorial Reviews

Product Details

• Paperback: 270 pages
• Publisher: Joseph Henry Press (March 28, 2006)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0309097347
• ISBN-13: 978-0309097345
• Product Dimensions: 7.9 x 6.7 x 0.8 inches
• Shipping Weight: 10.4 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 4.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (11 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #246,775 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Customer Reviews

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24 of 26 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars This Book is a Good Bet, March 19, 2007

By 

R. Schultz (Chicago) - See all my reviews
(VINE VOICE)    (REAL NAME)   

This review is from: Struck by Lightning: The Curious World of Probabilities (Paperback)

This book is written in short, digestible bites, and offers one of the best overview answers I've read to everyone's perennial question, "What are the odds?"

Early chapters are a primer on casino games. In less than an hour, you can read up on how the major casino games are played, how to calculate your odds of winning in many common situations - and how much you will lose on every play on average if you play for any length of time. Rosenthal emphasizes this last proviso. He shows how EVERY casino game is stacked against the players and will whittle away your stake to nothing in the long run. But some games offer better odds and will deplete you less rapidly than other games.

Then Rosenthal moves on to tell you how to win at the game of life - or more precisely, how not to be caught up in the frequent illogic and hysteria that is generated by headline news and TV shows. He gives a better perspective on what kinds of dangers you are likely to actually face - and they are not terrorists or SARS or street crime.

A few more mathematically challenging topics are addressed - such as the Monty Hall dilemma, and how trends are spotted using linear regression lines. Rosenthal makes the calculation of p-values (used to determine how often a result will happen just by chance) almost comprehensible.

Some of his suggestions about using utility theory when we have to reach a decision may be of questionable value. Probably many of us have tried to make decisions "rationally" by using some formula that involves assigning some level-of-desirability number to each of our options, then considering how likely it is that the benefits of that option will actually materialize. But such calculations usually break down almost immediately in the maze of diverging possibilities we have to consider.

However one of Rosenthal's applications of utility theory stands up and has implications for public policy. He shows how statistics lead to the conclusion that it is unreasonably costly to insure oneself against anything except utter catastrophes. This section of his book is something everyone should consider when buying insurance, especially health insurance. And it's something our elected officials in particular should inform themselves about before proposing any health care legislation.

Rosenthal provides other valuable insights that might shield us and reassure us when facing health care issues. For example, he demonstrates how statistically unlikely it is that you have a certain disease if just one test for that disease comes back positive. For further statistical discussions of this counterintuitive fact, I recommend any of Marilyn vos Savant's books.

"Struck by Lightning" provides ample insight on its own though. It's entertaining, and it contains information you're very likely to use in everyday life.

24 of 29 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars A Great Practical Book on Probability in the Everyday World, October 25, 2005

By 

G. Poirier (Orleans, ON, Canada) - See all my reviews
(TOP 1000 REVIEWER)    (REAL NAME)   

This review is from: Struck by Lightning: The Curious World of Probabilities (Hardcover)

I love books like this! I saw this one, browsed through it a bit and bought it right away because it looked very good - it was. I can confidently say that this is one of the best books of its type. The author explains, in very clear language, the nature of probability and its use in understanding some of the many areas in everyday life that could otherwise remain very obscure or misunderstood. The topics covered include gambling games and methods, the ways casinos operate (this may be very surprising to many), card games and strategies, pre-election polls, certain game shows, the war against spam, weather prediction, and many other areas where probability plays a key role. The author, an expert in the field, writes very well and in such an engaging and often humorous style that the book is almost impossible to put down. Those who read this book will understand a bit more about how the world that we live in actually works. I highly recommended this book to everyone!!

8 of 9 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Easy for the layman to understand, November 9, 2008

By 

Ray Depew "Ray" (Colorado) - See all my reviews
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This review is from: Struck by Lightning: The Curious World of Probabilities (Paperback)

It's difficult enough to get a high school student interested in probabilty. It's nearly impossible to get an adult to understand the workings of probability theory. Sometimes I think that if I hear the "Law of Averages" invoked one more time by an aggressive driver or a lottery player, I'll scream. I wish there were some way to teach the average human being about probability.

"Lightning" is a good start. It does not read like a textbook. It presents the ideas behind probability using object lessons and examples that even the dullest layman can relate to. It introduces the concepts first, using concrete examples such as lottery winnings and crime statistics, and then presents the abstract principle behind the concepts, and attaches the proper technical labels to the concepts and the principle.

The author introduces the reader early to the idea of a "Probability Perspective," a new way to look at the world through eyes that understand probability. The author returns constantly to this theme of the Probability Perspective, with the expectation that by the end of the book the reader will understand what is meant by the term, and will have claimed such a perspective as his own.

Some of the chapters can be read independently, and some build on previous chapters. It's most useful to read the book from cover to cover. The final chapter is a carefully disguised "final exam," at the end of which the readers can decide for themselves whether they have acquired a Probability Perspective.

The language of the book is appropriate for a high school senior or a college student, and is easily readable by an adult.

The only problem with the book is not the book itself, but the subject. Most people will judge the book by its cover (or at least by its subject) and, thinking that probability is either boring or difficult to understand, will pass by this book on their way to something with more cachet. They're missing out on a good read.