Customer Reviews

Struck by Lightning: The Curious World of Probabilities

5 star:		(3)
4 star:		(6)
3 star:		(1)
2 star:		(1)
1 star:		(0)

 

 

This book is written in short, digestible bites, and offers one of the best overview answers I've read to everyone's perennial question, "What are the odds?"

Early chapters are a primer on casino games. In less than an hour, you can read up on how the major casino games are played, how to calculate your odds of winning in many common situations - and how much you will lose on every play on average if you play for any length of time. Rosenthal emphasizes this last proviso. He shows how EVERY casino game is stacked against the players and will whittle away your stake to nothing in the long run. But some games offer better odds and will deplete you less rapidly than other games.

Then Rosenthal moves on to tell you how to win at the game of life - or more precisely, how not to be caught up in the frequent illogic and hysteria that is generated by headline news and TV shows. He gives a better perspective on what kinds of dangers you are likely to actually face - and they are not terrorists or SARS or street crime.

A few more mathematically challenging topics are addressed - such as the Monty Hall dilemma, and how trends are spotted using linear regression lines. Rosenthal makes the calculation of p-values (used to determine how often a result will happen just by chance) almost comprehensible.

Some of his suggestions about using utility theory when we have to reach a decision may be of questionable value. Probably many of us have tried to make decisions "rationally" by using some formula that involves assigning some level-of-desirability number to each of our options, then considering how likely it is that the benefits of that option will actually materialize. But such calculations usually break down almost immediately in the maze of diverging possibilities we have to consider.

However one of Rosenthal's applications of utility theory stands up and has implications for public policy. He shows how statistics lead to the conclusion that it is unreasonably costly to insure oneself against anything except utter catastrophes. This section of his book is something everyone should consider when buying insurance, especially health insurance. And it's something our elected officials in particular should inform themselves about before proposing any health care legislation.

Rosenthal provides other valuable insights that might shield us and reassure us when facing health care issues. For example, he demonstrates how statistically unlikely it is that you have a certain disease if just one test for that disease comes back positive. For further statistical discussions of this counterintuitive fact, I recommend any of Marilyn vos Savant's books.

"Struck by Lightning" provides ample insight on its own though. It's entertaining, and it contains information you're very likely to use in everyday life.

I love books like this! I saw this one, browsed through it a bit and bought it right away because it looked very good - it was. I can confidently say that this is one of the best books of its type. The author explains, in very clear language, the nature of probability and its use in understanding some of the many areas in everyday life that could otherwise remain very obscure or misunderstood. The topics covered include gambling games and methods, the ways casinos operate (this may be very surprising to many), card games and strategies, pre-election polls, certain game shows, the war against spam, weather prediction, and many other areas where probability plays a key role. The author, an expert in the field, writes very well and in such an engaging and often humorous style that the book is almost impossible to put down. Those who read this book will understand a bit more about how the world that we live in actually works. I highly recommended this book to everyone!!

It's difficult enough to get a high school student interested in probabilty. It's nearly impossible to get an adult to understand the workings of probability theory. Sometimes I think that if I hear the "Law of Averages" invoked one more time by an aggressive driver or a lottery player, I'll scream. I wish there were some way to teach the average human being about probability.

"Lightning" is a good start. It does not read like a textbook. It presents the ideas behind probability using object lessons and examples that even the dullest layman can relate to. It introduces the concepts first, using concrete examples such as lottery winnings and crime statistics, and then presents the abstract principle behind the concepts, and attaches the proper technical labels to the concepts and the principle.

The author introduces the reader early to the idea of a "Probability Perspective," a new way to look at the world through eyes that understand probability. The author returns constantly to this theme of the Probability Perspective, with the expectation that by the end of the book the reader will understand what is meant by the term, and will have claimed such a perspective as his own.

Some of the chapters can be read independently, and some build on previous chapters. It's most useful to read the book from cover to cover. The final chapter is a carefully disguised "final exam," at the end of which the readers can decide for themselves whether they have acquired a Probability Perspective.

The language of the book is appropriate for a high school senior or a college student, and is easily readable by an adult.

The only problem with the book is not the book itself, but the subject. Most people will judge the book by its cover (or at least by its subject) and, thinking that probability is either boring or difficult to understand, will pass by this book on their way to something with more cachet. They're missing out on a good read.

Honestly, if there was a .5 rating system I would give this book 3.5/5 stars. The author delivers a great basic look at statistics and I will admit I took away information from it I had previously either not considered or thought about. A mark of a good read for me.

Despite having just said it was a good read it unfortunately was not what I had hoped for. I am in to statistics myself, more as an amature stats guy as I don't dabble in statistics professionally nor do I have an educational background in it, however I am self taught and fairly knowledgeable and that made reading this book comparable to gearing up to watch a gory Hostel type horror movie and instead ending up watching Dracula staring Bela Lugosi.

I recommend this book for anyone wanting to gain some knowledge on statistics and probability from a real world percpective. The author definitely delivers there. For anyone who would like to learn more, like how variables affect outcome and what should be taken in to consideration when making those calculations, this book is not for you.

Jeffrey Rosenthal's book 'Struck by Lightning' provides a fun introduction to statistical concepts without the need for higher math. He makes the reader aware of how various laws of statistics influence our decisions and perceptions - and gives some guidance on how to avoid getting hoodwinked by screaming headlines or too-good-to-be-true sales pitches and offers.

The book is written for the general public and covers a wide range of statistical areas - from game theory and probablities to chaos and randomness - without sounding academic. People already familiar with statistics will find this an entertaining read to see how theory applies to real life, including the interpretation of medical studies, election results and crime statistics.

Probability is one of those areas of knowledge over which I would like to ultimately get a handle. I've read a number of books that seek to make this sometimes difficult subject accessible to the layperson. So far, this book has done the best job. And, not only does the author teach it clearly, he does it with a lot of humor. Rosenthal, a math prodigy of sorts (got his PhD and became a tenured professor rather young), is also surprisingly "normal". No inaccessible prose or academic jargon here. He takes the reader gently and logically through the major subject matters. His examples are clear and make sense. His use of humor makes the lessons stand out and memorable. Most of all, what you learn can then be applied to life. For example, I had made plans to go to an 11:30 brunch on Sunday for which I would have to travel for an hour. Unbeknownst to me, my wife had made a conflicting but fairly urgent appointment with the cable company which said they would arrive between 8:00 and 11:00 AM. Great, I thought to myself, watch these guys get here at 11:00 AM and I miss or get to my brunch ridiculously late. I needed them to get in and out by 10:30 AM the latest. I then remembered some of what I learned from the book: first, this company is very reliable when it comes to the times they say they will arrive (unlike the plumbing company whose ETAs are sheer fantasy); and, second, we live very close to the company's base, so that the likelihood that we were first or near first on their schedule was high. Knowing these two things made me relax, because I thought together they made the likelihood that they would show up before 10:00 high. When 8:30 came and went, and they did not show up, given their consistency, I realized that the likelihood that they would show up between 8:30 and 9:00 was now higher than before, because they definitely show up within the prescribed time. Sure enough, the technician showed up around 8:35 and was out the door before 9:00. And me, by 10:20 I was out the door and off to a good time with old friends at brunch. Thanks Professor Rosenthal.

This book was well written and provided a lot of information about statistics in an interesting way. I found the book to a quick read that held my attention. Sometimes books on statistics can be wordy and use too many mathematical terms that lead to the text being hard to follow and uninteresting, but this book did not do that. The author did a very good job of giving a brief overview of what probability is and what it means, but at the same time, he went into detail about some of the more complicated applications of probability.

I think the reason why I got a lot of this book and enjoyed it so much is because the author related probability to real life situations. Throughout the chapters, the author will present a true story that relates to probability and the topic he is discussing in the chapter. For example, the chapter "Dealing the Cards", the author tells the story of two people arguing about whether the card game bridge was all luck or not. These stories help the reader get through a topic that can be difficult for others to understand.

Another reason why this book captured my attention was because of the variety of topics this book talked about. I found a lot of these topics to be interesting and fun to think about how probability can be a part of your everyday life. Some examples of chapters in this book deal with themes and topics such as randomness, playing cards, genes, making decisions, and voting for politicians. If you are interested in how probability relates to any of these topics, this book would be a good start in learning something about it.

This book also includes a "Final Exam" chapter at the end of the book so you can test yourself on the information that is given to you in the book. I found this to be an interesting and unique addition to the book because I have never really seen such an assessment at the end of a book before. Also, I think it is an advantage to the reader because they can check to see what they actually learned from reading this book. It also shows them how to use probability in their everyday life.

Overall, I found this book to be a useful tool in my study of probability and I think it will be useful to others who are interested in the subject. I was a little skeptical about reading a book on probability because I thought there would be too many math equations and wordy math explanations that would completely turn me off to the book. Fortunately, this book did the opposite and sparked my interest in probability further. Even though the author incorporated math equations and some wordy math explanations, the author made it understandable and easy to follow. This book will be a joy to read for anyone interested in math and probability.

This book uses statistics to demonstrate that "truths" that we often site just are not proven when we look at the numbers. A good read

'Curious' is a quick read about our conceptions and misconceptions on common problems like winning lotteries (don't buy a ticket), winning card games, death, illness, opinion polls and a dozen or so other topics. Fun stuff. You might also read 'Freakanomics' which is way more esoteric and mind-boggling.

Shortly after I took this book out at the library I felt a sense of disappointment come over me because I saw the Canadian maple leaf on the spine of the book - making me aware it's a Canadian author. Being a Canuck myself, I've never been a big fan of Canadian lit but just as soon as I started reading this book I knew I was in for a treat!
Struck by Lightning is a book about probabilities and randomness in everyday life, intended to inform and entertain readers without requiring any mathematics background. Odds are you'll like this Lightning strike. These type of books are so much fun ... anecdotes and examples which will stay with the reader long after the last page is turned. And there are not many books that can manage that feat. Lightning strikes are just the start of an exploration of the odds which confront us all. For the booming numbers of poker players there are numerous studies on when to hold em and when to fold em. And for regular casino-goers, there are the odds of each popular game of chance none of which are ever in the player's favour. But the most fun are those tidbits of probabilities with which you can astound your friends and make some cash if you want to rub your knowledge in their collective faces. ... Amaze your friends, confound your rivals. Buy Struck By Lightning and have some fun.