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Super Boom: Why the Dow Jones Will Hit 38,820 and How You Can Profit From It Hardcover – April 5, 2011

ISBN-13: 978-1118024706 ISBN-10: 1118024702 Edition: 1st

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Product Details

  • Hardcover: 183 pages
  • Publisher: Wiley; 1 edition (April 5, 2011)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 1118024702
  • ISBN-13: 978-1118024706
  • Product Dimensions: 6.3 x 0.9 x 9.3 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 13.6 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
  • Average Customer Review: 3.6 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (12 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #1,146,146 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

Editorial Reviews

From the Inside Flap

In 1976, Yale Hirsch predicted a fifteen-year super boom—a move in the stock market of 500% or more. His forecast proved accurate as the market rose and continued upward, eventually posting growth over 1,000% just before the tech crash in 2000.

History has a way of repeating itself, especially in the financial markets. The American economy, and subsequently the world economy, has always existed in a cycle of boom and bust: gold, grain, oil, technology, and most recently, real estate, have all bubbled and popped. The key to investing profitably is spotting macroeconomic historical trends and positioning to reap the benefits.

In Super Boom, Jeffrey Hirsch, President of the Hirsch Organization and Editor in Chief of the Stock Trader's Almanac, unveils the next market expansion. Building on his father's research from 1976, Hirsch has discovered that meteoric rises in stock indices are due to specific catalysts predominantly outside of the financial markets. Step-by-step, Hirsch puts together the pieces of this puzzle by revealing the central drivers of a super boom, namely:

  • Inflation—while it may be at bay for the time being, the massive injection of money by the government, in response to the global financial crisis and the Great Recession, as well as wartime spending, will eventually create an inflationary environment

  • Peace between major wars—despite continuing violence in Iraq and Afghanistan, U.S. troop withdrawals remain on schedule, and military presence in these countries will be winding down over the next several years

  • New enabling technologies—while no one can say for sure where the next cultural paradigm-shifting technologies will come from, energy technology and/or biotechnology could lead the way

As markets and economies struggle over the next several years, remember to keep your eye on the future and get ready for the coming super boom and the next 500% move in the market. With this book as your guide, you'll benefit from the insights that only Jeffrey Hirsch can provide and be in the best position possible to prosper from the profitable opportunities that lie ahead.

From the Back Cover

SUPER BOOM

"Jeff Hirsch delivers a 500% effort in Super Boom. Unless you're closed minded or comatose, there is a lot, lot more here than any investment reader can normally hope for. The visuals and data alone are worth many times the price."
KEN FISHER, founder and CEO, Fisher Investments, Forbes "Portfolio Strategy" columnist, five-time New York Times bestselling author

"Super Boom reminds the reader of the power of compounding. DJIA 38,820 by 2025 might sound like an outrageous level, but the implied sub-9% compound annual growth rate (following a decade of decline) makes the target appear more attainable. Within these pages, Jeff demonstrates that he has learned a lot from his father and has inherited the reputation as a renowned and respected market historian."
SAM STOVALL, Chief Investment Strategist, Standard & Poor's Equity Research

"As a kid I taught Jeff how to catch big rainbow trout in Montana. In Super Boom, he's returned the favor by showing us how to catch a monster stock market move. A must-read book."
LARRY WILLIAMS, trader


More About the Author

Jeffrey A. Hirsch is president of the Hirsch Organization, editor-in-chief of the Stock Trader's Almanac® (Wiley), Almanac Investor newsletter and www.stocktradersalmanac.com. He started with the Hirsch Organization in 1990 as a market analyst and historian under the mentorship of his father Yale Hirsch. He was handed the reigns in 2000 and continues to run the operation from his Nyack, New York offices. Jeffrey regularly appears on major news networks such as CNBC, CNN, Bloomberg and Fox News. As well as writing numerous financial columns and is widely quoted in all of the major newspapers and financial publications.

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Customer Reviews

Jeff Hirsch's Super Boom is a prediction that the Dow Jones Index will hit 38,820 by 2025.
Chris B.
If you're active as an investor, buying and selling stocks, one cannot reject or ignore what is happening outside these markets.
James T. Fields
Hirsch is very careful in crafting his prediction that he bases on repetitive historical patterns.
L. Masonson

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

17 of 18 people found the following review helpful By L. Masonson on April 13, 2011
Format: Hardcover
Most traders and active traders are very familiar with the information-packed Stock Trader's Almanac compiled and edited by the dynamic duo of Yale and Jeffrey Hirsch. This annually updated book is in its 44th edition and provides critical information on historical market patterns and key data points. Now, Jeffrey Hirsch has gone one step further to make what seems like an outlandish prediction of a 500% rise in the Dow-Jones Industrial Average to 38,820 by 2025 until one looks at the historical record. The achievement of this level on the DJIA is possible considering that it translates into a compounded annual growth rate of 8.4% measuring from the March 6, 2009 intra-day low of 6470 to Dow 38,820 by 2025. Don't forget that during the 1950s, 1980s and 1990s the annual return of the S&P 500 Index was about 18% a year. And we've come off a decade where the annual return was -0.95%. From 1926 through 2010 the annual total return on the S&P has been near 9.5%. So 8.4% a year is in the ballpark. The question is whether or not it can be achieved. And we won't know the answer for many years. Nevertheless, the way Hirsch arrived at his prediction is an interesting story.

There were three books published during the Internet boom with outrageous titles such as Dow 36,000 (authored by James K. Glassman and Kevin A. Hassett), and Dow 40,000 (David Elias), and Dow 100,000 (Charles Kadlec). Hirsch comments on the first book and their faulty assumptions. Obviously, these Dow levels were never met. Hirsch is very careful in crafting his prediction that he bases on repetitive historical patterns.
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14 of 16 people found the following review helpful By Chris B. on March 25, 2011
Format: Hardcover
Jeff Hirsch's Super Boom is a prediction that the Dow Jones Index will hit 38,820 by 2025. When I saw the cover, I thought, "You're kidding, right?"

It was bold enough that I figured I had to take a look. Plus Doug Kass endorsed the book. So I got a copy and blasted through it in just a couple days. Predictions aside, the book is about boom periods, the patterns that surround "super booms" (quantitatively, a 500% rise in a bull market), and the elements that compose a market boom. According to the book, there have been three recorded super booms each following a major world war, significant inflation, and some kind of significant technological development (internal combustion, automobiles, computers, the internet, etc). I love books that coin a phrase (Super Boom), prove its existence (with data, not opinion), and then make it worthwhile to know about (relevant to today).

The pattern, which the book is based upon, is interesting and I enjoyed the quantitative focus (though sometimes a bit number-heavy) and the effort of the author to prove the pattern's existence throughout history (that it is a recurrent phenomena, not a blip).

The contents, briefly: Chapter 1 was a breakdown of what a super boom is. Chapter 2 followed with our current outlook. The next few chapters went through some of the other famous predictions out there (where they went wrong, why they're wrong now), which was probably worthwhile (remember Dow 36,000???) if a bit tedious. Then the book gets to the historical stuff -- the patterns throughout history, the main criteria of a boom. The author concludes with advice about the current boom -- how to prepare for it and what to invest in going forward.
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12 of 14 people found the following review helpful By elissa.rosen@bain.com on March 25, 2011
Format: Hardcover
I am not a seasoned investor, nor do I understand the market like a professional. I do however follow the market closely and when I saw Mr. Hirsch's book cover I figured I better take a look. His historical knowledge of not only the market but the trends that drive the market in good times and bad is phenomenal. His mastery of when and how the boom happens, is tremendous and will be invaluable to anyone who reads this book.

We are living during scary economic times amid great uncertainty. Books like this and people like Mr. Hirsch can at the very least give us a little clarity and perspective where they often don't exist, and give us hope that the market will one day boom again. The way Hirsch describes the conditions necessary for the next super boom leaves me waiting and hoping for the next technological enabling breakthrough so the the last remaining factor in heralding the coming of a boom will have happened.

I urge everyone who is scared or uncertain about the future of the economy and the market to read this book carefully and to heed the advice of Jeffrey Hirsch.
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20 of 26 people found the following review helpful By David Merkel on April 4, 2011
Format: Hardcover
This is a modest book with an immodest title. Stocks will return 9%/year over the next 15 or so years. Dow 38,820? C'mon, round it to 39,000 or 40,000!

Or, is the book so modest? The Lehman Aggregate yields 3.5%. Puny. Moody's Baa bond index yields 6.05%. Since 1967, we are near the lows on that yield. In relative terms, also puny.

It would be extraordinary for stocks to move ahead at 9% while low investment grade long bonds yield 3% less. The same applies to the wider spread over the Lehman Aggregate.

Bonds are saying that the returns to capital are low, and given the artificial capital created by quantitative easing, that is not a surprise. The Fed has consistently stopped the healthy process of failure, which redeploys capital to healthier and more profitable uses.

Now, maybe we get inflation to show up in a big way, and Dow 38,820 is the new 20,000 in real terms.

I agree with the thesis that the stock market has tended to move in waves. I think Hirsch is jumping the gun a little on the next wave, and overstating the amount of likely return.

Now, as for the book blurbs -- they are all overdone. Better to understate the case.

Now, as to the book itself: Hirsch thinks we will work through our problems. So do I, but with more difficulty.

With hindsight, he critiques those who wrote Dow 36,000 ably. He then critiques current bears, and I think he is right there as well.

He describes the last few stock market cycles of stagnation then boom. But is past prologue? I think it is in qualitative terms, but maybe not in degree, unless inflation reduces the real value of stocks. The author thinks that is likely, even with the biased measures of inflation employed by the government.
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