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SuperCycles: The New Economic Force Transforming Global Markets and Investment Strategy Hardcover – February 4, 2010
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About the Author
More About the Author
His 20-year international career at Citi (earlier Citigroup) has helped. Fortuitously, but also fortunately, he was close at hand when most of the big crises hit the global economy -- from the Latin debt crisis in the 1980s to the Asian currency crisis of the 1990s to the shocks that have pounded the US economy over the last decade. Drawing a connection between these different crises, Motianey has presented something like a new organizing principle for understanding the global economy. He has no doubt there will be a few readers who will feel uncomfortable by his root-and-branch reformulation of how markets and economies work and they will attempt to dismiss this work as "speculative". The open-minded reader should, however, learn much from these ideas.
The investment implications of these ideas are pivotal to his larger intellectual interests. Much of the latter part of his career was spent in the investment management side of Citi and he thinks there is a framework where great investment opportunities can be exploited.
Motianey is now a full-time author and is setting up an independent economic consultancy. He will continue to be based in the Greater New York area.
Top Customer Reviews
First, an important disclosure. I've had the book for just a few days and I've skimmed it quickly and then gone back to read the sections that caught my attention. The best way to read this sort of the book is to read it carefully because it is heavy with concepts - and these concepts build on the ones that came earlier. Since not many of us have the time to devote a whole week to a single book, I would suggest that the reader focus on the Introduction, Chapters 1, 2 3, 6, 7 and 8. Some of the chapters in the middle of the book that deal with the Gold Standard would appeal only to history buffs. The last chapter is on investment ideas for the three scenarios (deflation and two types of inflation) and would be of maximum interest to the general reader but to be quite honest you won't get that much out of it if you haven't understood how the Supercycle works and why the author believes that policymakers are going to be faced with nothing but really terrible choices. The two Appendixes, both quite long, can be omitted by most.
Is Motianey's thesis convincing?Read more ›
Those hankering for a screed that would dump on the financial sector or the Washington political class will be disappointed. This is a serious work of analysis, written with a great amount of literary flourish. Although the reader can sense the author's outrage at various stages in the book his targets are not specific individuals, companies or countries. Motianey's conclusion is that the financial meltdown was an intellectual failure of the highest order - and until that is recognized and corrected we will remain thrashing around in the morass.
Happily, he does offer us a ray of hope at the end. Using the framework of the Supercycle, he points the way out, but on the basis of accepting much higher inflation than the central banks would wish. He worries that the need to encourage inflation will clash with the central bankers' need to stay true to everything they have been taught is right. Major ideological battles lie ahead for all central banks, including the Fed.Read more ›
I think the book is written in a very readable format that is refreshing in its style and analysis. The book challenges the reader without the boring verbiage of typical economics texts or the fluff I would associate with the pop-economic books that have recently been written. It is thoughtful and well written. It is a unique analysis that explains much of the recent financial turbulence and unfortunately much of the turbulence that is expected to come.
The book is good on economic history, with an introduction to the concept of Kondriatev wave cycles. There's reference to classical theories of Smith, Mill, Keynes and others. He gives Friedman pretty short shrift. Especially interesting is the introduction to the contrarian ideas of Minsky and Koo in the appendix. The analysis of which equities perform best under which economic conditions might prove useful.
Starting with Chapter 4, this is worth reading.
Most Recent Customer Reviews
This author never delivers on the title of his book. He gives only a bare bones description of the SuperCycle and never gives data to explain its length, severity, or timing. Read morePublished on December 10, 2013 by John Mccarrier
This book has a nice title but that is about the only thing that is good in this book. Vague information is everywhere. This was a very boring read.Published on July 5, 2012 by Nick S.
In classic economic theory, market forces move the global economy toward a balance in the creation and consumption of products and services. Read morePublished on April 28, 2011 by Rolf Dobelli
I struggle with real mathematical applications to economic history but this was accessible. Basically, he argues that economic history has been a series of price shocks and... Read morePublished on September 14, 2010 by Benjamin Reid Lodmell
My mother always said say something nice so here goes - the author has a very impressive vocabulary and the cover art is really nice. Read morePublished on April 25, 2010 by AbbeyRoad
I'm halfway through this excellent book. If you've been trying to make sense of global macro phenomena, look no further. Read morePublished on April 15, 2010 by E. Paradis
Mr. Motianey's book is intellectually rigorous and easy to read for anyone that has been following the present global crisis. Read morePublished on January 31, 2010 by Jorge A. Ardohain