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33 of 35 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
Best China Book I've Read, October 7, 2009
This review is from: Superfusion: How China and America Became One Economy and Why the World's Prosperity Depends on It (Hardcover)
I have been interested in China since 1998 when a good friend married a Chinese national and encouraged me to visit and make up my own mind about the Middle Kingdom. I have read 15 books about China and visited three times in the last 14 months. Zachary Karabell is the first author to put together a comprehensive historical and financial framework that explains what has been going on in China for the last twenty years with on-the-ground personal experiences and portfolio management insights from his several years as running a successful China mutual fund. He explains how Kentucky Fried Chicken, Avon and Federal Express achieved success but I was more interested in his not-as-well known company examples which included [...], [...], China Life Insurance, and Huawei Technologies.
Deng Xiaoping's economic reforms in China have been going on for thirty years. Everywhere I went and talked to young Chinese (through an interpreter who spoke Mandarin) they mentioned Deng's remarks "to be rich is to be glorious" and "Black cat, white cat, what does it matter as long as it catches mice?" The well educated twenty to thirty-five year old Chinese men (and women) know that the 21st century is their century. These "Chuppies" - Chinese yuppies - were everywhere in Shanghai and Hong Kong. Their internet phones and laptops were ubiquitous and more advanced than mine. The only thing I did not understand was the fascination with massively multi-player online role-playing games in internet cafes.
My only quibble is that the term "Chimerica" (which was coined by Niall Ferguson) would have worked better in the title instead of "Superfusion".
I highly recommend this book. Also, if you haven't been to Asia, go to Hong Kong and Shanghai. Those skylines with their new 100 story buildings put New York City to shame.
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33 of 36 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
The Future Is 'Superfusion', October 12, 2009
This review is from: Superfusion: How China and America Became One Economy and Why the World's Prosperity Depends on It (Hardcover)
"Here begins our tale. The empire, long divided, must unite; long united, must divide. -- Moss Roberts (translator) <Romance of Three Kingdoms>"
Last Wednesday (Oct. 7, 2009), Alcoa surprised Wall Street by reporting a profit for the most recent quarter after three consecutive quarterly losses. CEO Kleinfeld said, "China clearly is back and back very, very strong and pulling some of the Asian markets."
This is just one of many examples showing how "China" is positioned in this worldwide financial meltdown and recession. While some blamed China as the cause of this crisis for its currency policy and cheap goods, others hope China will be the very engine that pulls the world, especially epicenter of the crisis, the United States, out of recession.
Zachary Karabell, an American author, historian, money manager and economist, is the President of River Twice Research, where he analyzes economic and political trends. With several 4-5 star books at hand, Karabell wrote a new book to tell us the story behind China's rising economy and its "superfusion" with the United States.
First, the book started with the economical background in China and Unite States. China was poor after decades of command economy and isolation. Deng Xiaoping was determined to open China to foreign investment. United States was at the dawn "New Economy" and big companies were lagging and searching for opportunities around the globe.
Then, the author moved on with stories of three big names (KFC, AVON, FedEx). They invested in China heavily without much short-term return but aimed for the future. In the meanwhile, China utilized foreign capital for development while it still kept financial system partially isolated.
At the turn of new millennium, China's economy started to rocket accompanied by huge return for foreign investment, rising Chinese influence, interdependence between China and United States and tension with the western public, especially what happened along with the Olympics last summer.
After citing several key economical data and political events, Karabell concludes that China and Untied States have become "Chimerica" with closer and closer economical tie between each other despite increasing tension between the nationalities. And the prosperity of the world economy also depends on this "superfusion".
As a reader who grew up in China for 20 years then moved to USA for graduate school 4 years ago, I am immersed in the author's knowledge behind geopolitical public opinions and his subjective view on controversial political ideology on either side. To name a few, I nodded when he talked about the diplomatic dictatorship of USA over other countries including China. I smiled when he mentioned the increasing nationalism among Chinese against the West. I enjoyed his many stories behind major economical/political events happened in either country, such as Tiananmen Square, WTO talk, the Bra War, 2008 Olympics, etc.
I noticed one point on which the author might be wrong. In Chapter 10 (P. 201-2), the author states that "One of the failings of domestic Chinese banks was that they were not attractive for individual deposits." However, AFAIK, the fact is the opposite. Lacking a profound social security system, as well as medical insurance, or unemployment protection, Chinese people have to save a "LOT" in case of any major thing happens. In 2002, National Savings Deposit Balance is 10 trillion Yuan (USD$1.2T), which equals GDP of China in that year. In 2008, the number is CNY21.8T (USD$3.2T). People dare not spend their savings. Thus, the problem is not lack of deposit, it is "Too much deposits". This also suggests a great potential for domestic consuming once extensive social security system assure everyone in China.
About economical superfusion of the world, the author predicted that Chinese manufacturing as well as consuming will be the key to world-wide prosperity. It will also result in a shift of power from the West to the East. A lot of other economists and specialists also predicted this for various reasons. But their views on the fate of USA vary. I agree with Karabell that this shift would not necessarily mean a bad/downturn future for Americans. Actually, they will benefit from this global superfusion and remain prosperous. For further reading, I recommend a book " The Future for Investors". Dr. Siegel discussed this issue from an investor's point of view.
Overall, this is a very good book for understanding the geopolitical and economical interactions between China and United States during the recent decades. It also sheds light upon current world economy issues from a unique angle. I recommend you read this book if you are interested in international affairs, world economy, and/or Sino-US relationship.
In the end, let's go back to the quote in the beginning taken from "Romance of Three Kingdoms". Our world has been long divided ever since; maybe it's time to be united, without conquering. For computing, AMD says, The Future is Fusion; for humanity, Karabell suggests, The Future is "Superfusion". Time will tell...
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17 of 18 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
Timely and Important -, October 16, 2009
This review is from: Superfusion: How China and America Became One Economy and Why the World's Prosperity Depends on It (Hardcover)
Recent economic travails have triggered intensive questioning of the financial system created by the United States and warped by Wall Street. That has led many to reconsider America's place in the world and wonder whether this is indeed the twilight of American power. At the same time, both China and the U.S., after years of seeking closer integration, have begun to question that wisdom. Author Karabell, however, argues that their fusion has advanced too far for either to extricate itself without severe harm. Over the past two decades, China and the U.S. have become one integrated hyper-economy - 'Chimerica.'
To bolster his point about how the U.S. and China economies are intertwined, Karabell contends that without Chinese reserves bolstering U.S. Treasury bonds in the past 18 months, it would have been far more challenging for the United States government to rescue a crumbling financial system. And without American consumers having bought Chinese goods over the past years, China would never have accumulated the reserves that allowed it to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to support the economy during the worst of the financial implosion. (On the other hand, without the low American interest rates afforded by Chinese funds, the U.S. may not have had a housing bubble.)
China began with a trade economy limited to 5% of GDP in the 1970s - it was isolated, and self-sufficient as best possible - like North Korea today. The process of turning outward began about 20 years ago. First came about ten years of experiments with private enterprise in special enterprise zones. By the late 1990s, "State-Owned Enterprises" (SOEs) were allowed to lay off workers, select banks could pursue delinquent firms for repayment, and many restrictions on size and scope of private companies were lifted. As many as 50 million lost their jobs. At about the same time the government also lifted its once-stringent restrictions on internal travel and migration. Its urban population went from 25% in 1990 to nearly 40% at the end of the millennium - nearly 200 million moved.
This then led to people requesting they be allowed title to own homes, and the sell-off of many state assets. Infrastructure needs jumped. SOE managers became increasingly held to performance standards, given wider latitude, and rewarded or punished for results. China's leaders also learned from watching Russia's early 1990s problems after dictation from the U.S. and World Bank, and decided that China needed to go slower, in stages. (Eg. lower tariffs slowly, not all at once.)
A major early boost to China-U.S. trade was President Clinton's decision to stop making trade contingent on its human rights situation. Reasons: 1)The Chinese weren't budging. 2)The instability hampered businesspeople in both countries. (We really need to stop insisting we know what's best for everyone - it's arrogant and ignorant, even self-defeating. We need to recognize that, as Karabell points out, what China did in the 1990s took the states of western Europe more than a century and the U.S. more than five decades.)
Karabell then tells how KFC and then Avon fared in China. KFC now has about 2,000 locations, representing less than 7% of Yum's branches globally but 25% of profits. Its three-story 700 seat flagship store near Tienanmen Square opened in 1987. A two-piece meal + drink cost about the average Chinese weekly wage. Six years later, KFC had less than 12 stores in China - starting out slow was also its guide. A few Chinese items have been added to the menu, and a 'Chicky' mascot proved much more effective than Col. Sanders (viewed as a stern grandfather figure), especially with children. The firm focused on premier locations near tourists, partly because advertising was practically non-existent. While meal costs are less than comparable U.S. offerings, so are costs - overall meals are about 3-4X as profitable as in the U.S.
Avon went to China in 1990. Struggling in the U.S. (women had growing opportunities), and targeted at the middle-class here, its initial 1,000 Chinese representatives were highly educated and skilled (they lacked alternative opportunities). One of its first was a 40-year-old pediatrician earning $120/month. Working part-time, she soon sold $5,000 in products, pocketed $1,500, and thought of going to Avon full-time. Avon also boosted its success by tailoring products to the tastes of local women, and producing them in China as well. However, the Chinese government was suspicious of multi-level sales arrangements (fear of high prices and Ponzi-schemes) and disliked the large-meeting recruiting drives (feared anti-government activities). Direct sales were then banned in 1998. Avon switched to retail sales and continued to do well. In 2006, the government allowed direct sales to resume.
Trade deficits are a sensitive problem in a number of nations. The topic is acerbated by unclarity of statistics. Assembling a G.E. appliance in a Chinese factory it owns is not likely to be classified as an import when the product arrives in Long Beach. However, if the same product had been outsourced to a Chinese company and produced on the mainland, it would be classified as an import upon arriving here. (Thus, our trade deficit is understated; this may partly explain why it has grown so fast. Other reasons include a preoccupation with terrorism and Iraq.)
Karabell claims that one reason Chinese leaders have been so adamant about not allowing China's currency to trade freely is they believe this would lead to a collapse of the currency as in Russia during the early 1990s. The problem centers around concerns over the large proportion of non-performing Chinese bank loans. However, Karabell's explanation of the link was unclear and ineffectual. Meanwhile, the Chinese government is working to 'clean-up' the problem.
By 2007, more than 400 of the S&P 500 derived 40%+ of their profits from outside the U.S. International sales also are faster growing. (Karabell doesn't explain whether this is from sales to outside nations, or profit allocations to offshored work.)
"Superfusion" ends with Karabell recounting Britain's need for large loans after WWII. The U.S. took advantage of the situation and required Britain to open up its empire to trade, thus ending the British Empire and forcing it to take a backseat vs. the U.S. Karabell believes the same may happen to the U.S. vs. China, and recommends we re-orient ourselves away from current military and security challenges (eg. Given their intertwined economies, do Japan and Taiwan need the U.S. Navy's 7th Fleet in the Pacific to protect them from China?) to a greater economic focus, and working closer with China. (Despite Karabell's excellent material, I still believe we need to restrict free trade with China.)
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