Taking Chances: Winning with Probability [Paperback]

John Haigh (Author)

Book Description

ISBN-10: 0198502915 | ISBN-13: 978-0198502913 | Publication Date: August 17, 2000

An easy-to-read, fun look at some common probability traps and fallacies and how they can be used to put the odds in the reader's favor. Written by a math expert, who uses real-life examples that can be understood by general readers, Taking Chances: Winning with Probability shows how to make better betting decisions in such games of chance as: lotteries, football pools, dice, roulette, card games, tv game shows, horse racing, and betting with bookies. It will interest all those who are interested in gaining the extra advantage when it comes to winning the lottery, making money in the casino, winning the football pool, or backing the right horse.

Editorial Reviews

Amazon.com Review

Most of us enjoy pleasant surprises and know that many of life's greatest rewards are obtained by taking chances. This is true whether we are playing the lottery or deciding whether or not to buy flowers when we are unsure if it might be our girlfriend's birthday. So, if you enjoy taking chances and winning--and it's a safe bet that you do--this book helps you do so in a more intelligent way.

John Haigh is Reader in Mathematics at Sussex University, and his book covers a remarkably large number of topics. He tells you how to take chances playing the football pools and about the role of chance in sports such as tennis, golf, and soccer. What points in tennis are most important? If a soccer player gets a yellow card in 10 percent of games and is suspended for one game whenever he has accumulated two yellow cards, how often is he suspended? What is the chance that a team that scores the first goal goes on to win? He also writes about casino games, bridge, and Monopoly, explaining why orange is the best color of Monopoly property to own.

The book is practical rather than theoretical. It is written for anyone with a curious mind, aged perhaps 16 and up. It is not a textbook, but introduces concepts, such as random walk and game theory, that are familiar to professional mathematicians. There are technical appendices and test-yourself quizzes for readers who want to explore more. A bonus is advice on the lottery. However, with typical vividness, he cautions that if the lottery had begun with the ancient druids, and your ancestors had bought 50 tickets every week for the last 5000 years, then by now your family could expect to have won the jackpot just once! --Richard Weber, Amazon.co.uk --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

Review

"Haigh, a cheerful Yorkshireman in his late fifties . . . is on a roll at the moment . . . After 33 years at the University of Sussex, where he's Reader in Mathematics and Statistics, he has belatedly risen from the academic ranks this year to become that most envied of creatures: a media don. His recently published book . . . has proved an unlikely hit that could well change his life. . . . For a start, you can see at a glance that Haigh, while respectable, is not rich. His trousers have seen better days . . . He may know how to beat the system, but he doesn't appear to have done so. In fact, . . . Haigh never gambles . . . Is gambling a mug's game, then? 'Not necessarily. Some people make money from gambling. And some people who don't make money from gambling are none the less often acting sensibly . . .' Haigh offers a golden rule: 'In an unfavourable game bet boldly, in a favourable game bet timidly.'"--The Independent on Sunday

"This text will appeal greatly to those who enjoy having their logic and intuition challenged. Probability is an ancient and fascinating subject, and John Haigh gives a clear account of its application to a variety of fun puzzles, real-life situations and popular games. The analyses are presented in a simple and logical fashion, needing no more than a good intuitive appreciation of probability, and the ability to count and to follow logical argument. Rather deeper and more mathematical analyses are provided in the appendices for the reader with a mathematical background. . . . Throughout, the reader is challenged with 'problems to solve', with solutions provided later. . . . This book will appeal to readers who regard probability as a fascinating, but somewhat mysterious subject. John Haigh's extraordinary, lucid text gives a great deal of intellectual satisfaction."--Times Literary Supplement

"Haigh (Univ. of Sussex, UK) offers a very interesting and entertaining book on probability and taking chances; he gives the layperson the opportunity to take a closer look at such things as roulette, the lottery, football pools, and other games of chance. Since many things in everyday life revolve around probabilities and likelihood, the author explains some of the basic notions of probability that might broaden the average person's appreciation of this important topic. The book does not require a sophisticated understanding of mathematics or statistics and is therefore mathematically accessible to all. There are 13 chapters, each of which has a common theme; for example, some chapter coverage includes football pools, dice, lotteries, English television games, casino games, and English sports. There are five appendixes that offer more mathematical depth if the reader is so inclined, as well as self-test quizzes with solutions. Recommended for general readers."--Choice

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Product Details

• Paperback: 344 pages
• Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA (August 17, 2000)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0198502915
• ISBN-13: 978-0198502913
• Product Dimensions: 7.6 x 5 x 0.8 inches
• Shipping Weight: 12 ounces
• Average Customer Review: 4.4 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (5 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #2,532,006 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

13 of 14 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Best broad introduction to probability for real world games, May 27, 2007

By 

David J. Aldous "gentleman scholar" (Alameda, CA USA) - See all my reviews
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This review is from: Taking Chances: Winning with Probability (Paperback)

There are many textbooks on college-level mathematical probability, but a smaller number of what I call "textbooks lite" aimed at a reader who is willing to work to learn some interesting parts of a subject. This wonderful book teaches the basic calculations in mathematical probability, but with a combination of breadth and concreteness unrivaled by any other book I know. The book consists of short sections, each giving verbal discussion of problems involving probability, games of chance and related material, and deriving solutions using only arithmetic and occasional elementary combinatorics and algebra. It covers an impressive breadth of topics: lotteries, dice and card games, casino games, TV show games, racetrack betting, some game theory (Prisoners Dilemma, Hawk-Dove games, Male-Female reproductive strategies), combined with the basic laws of probability and the familiar birthday and coupon collector's problems. Part of the content is distinctly British rather than American (cricket and snooker; premium bonds; the particular TV shows). In addition to familiar types of elementary probability calculations such as the craps example, there are more elaborate stories and calculations involving strategies as games progress. I particularly like the chapter giving a gentle yet entertaining introduction to two-person game theory.

9 of 9 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Loose thinking can cost money..., December 19, 2004

By 

Franco Arda (Palo Alto, CA) - See all my reviews
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This review is from: Taking Chances: Winning with Probability (Paperback)

While the book is mainly written on probability in games, which has already been covered in many books, the author coveres the basics of probability and coin tossing very nicely. He also covers the theory of dices thoroughly and approaches "Games with few choices" (Game Theory) with great enthusiasm. Finally the chapter "Probability for Lawyers" with it's terms such as the prosecutors fallacy and the defence attorne's fallacy are a must read for every person interested in the fascinating subject of probabiliy. PS: second edition covers now Bayes's theorem (previous readers criticised the author of missing this important theory in the first issue)

11 of 12 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars You bet, June 27, 2000

By 

Steve Knight - See all my reviews

This review is from: Taking Chances: Winning with Probability (Hardcover)

An excellent account of probability theory. Whilst definitely geared towards gambling it also sheds new light on some fundamental probability topics.

The text sometimes does get a little numerical - at the expense of the theoretical - but this is not necessarily a bad thing.

The only question I have about the book is why is there no mention of Bayes? Surely a fundamental contributor to probability theory.