Target Risk 2: A New Psychology of Safety and Health [Paperback]

Gerald J. S. Wilde (Author)

Book Description

ISBN-10: 0969912439 | ISBN-13: 978-0969912439 | Publication Date: March 1, 2001 | Edition: 2nd

Why are bankers, adventure tour operators, nuclear scientists, and health professionals reading a book on traffic safety? When Target Risk was first published in 1994 it caused a sensation because it turned conventional ideas on risk management upside down. New Yorker writer Malcolm Gladwell used its ideas to explain the Challenger space shuttle disaster. Ski resort managers studied it to help figure out why safety improvements failed to reduce accident rates. It was purchased by a broad readership ranging from health professionals and law enforcement officials to financial analysts, journalists, and safety educators. The book is controversial because it casts a new light on all the efforts that governments, industry, and law enforcement officials make to improve safety. It implies a new approach to managing risk, in ourselves and in others.

The first hardcover edition sold out, but an updated and expanded version, Target Risk 2, is now available in paperback.

Antilock braking systems, airbags, seatbelt laws, traffic lights, and speed regulations are all part of mammoth efforts to reduce traffic casualties. But do these measures and their counterparts in industry and public health have the effects intended? In his theory of risk homeostasis, Gerald Wilde postulates that they don't because they fail to influence people's willingness to take risk. In this book, Professor Wilde has collected his controversial theory, along with its supporting arguments and data, into one fascinating document, and included new data and evidence accumulated since the publication of the 1994 original. Target Risk 2 is a powerhouse of insights into human risk-taking behavior. It's a book that everyone interested in safety and health promotion should have on the shelf.

Editorial Reviews

Review

Any attempt to answer whether we are implementing the right safety measures must address the controversial issue of "risk homeostasis." -- Ivan D. Brown, Medical Research Council, Cambridge, England

Any attempt to answer whether we are implementing the right safety measures must address the controversial issue of "risk homeostasis." -- Ivan D. Brown, Medical Research Council, Cambridge, England

The basic idea of risk homeostasis has been laid out brilliantly by the Canadian psychologist Gerald Wilde. -- Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker

Wilde is to be congratulated for carefully and explicitly setting out a fascinating theory of risk-taking behaviour. --Paul Slovic and Baruch Fischhoff, Decision Research, Eugene, Oregon

The basic idea of risk homeostasis has been laid out brilliantly by the Canadian psychologist Gerald Wilde. -- Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker

Wilde is to be congratulated for carefully and explicitly setting out a fascinating theory of risk-taking behaviour. --Paul Slovic and Baruch Fischhoff, Decision Research, Eugene, Oregon

From the Publisher

PDE Publications/Drivers.com chose to publish this revised and expanded edition because of the huge success of the first book, Target Risk. Dr. Wilde's theory and arguments are even more relevant today, in a world that has a new sense of risk and risk taking behaviour.

See all Editorial Reviews

Product Details

• Paperback: 255 pages
• Publisher: Pde Pubns; 2nd edition (March 1, 2001)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0969912439
• ISBN-13: 978-0969912439
• Product Dimensions: 8.8 x 6 x 0.7 inches
• Shipping Weight: 12.8 ounces
• Average Customer Review: 4.3 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (3 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #1,181,793 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

5 of 5 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Fascinating and counter-intuitive, August 11, 2005

By 

Chris Stolz (canada) - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   

This review is from: Target Risk 2: A New Psychology of Safety and Health (Paperback)

Wilde here expands on the ideas first presented in the 1994 first edition of TARGET RISK, namely, "risk homeostasis."

Risk homeostasis is the process by which human beings maintain a more-or-less constant level of (perceived) exposure to risk.

In a famous experiment in the 1950s, an English psychologist monitored galvanic skin response in drivers as they drove through a loop of London streets. He measured the risks drivers took (the "perceived level of danger" inherent in things like passing, speed, rapidity of lange changes, acceleration, braking etc) and found that drivers maintained a fairly steady "rate" of risk taking as measured as a function of time spend driving. In other words, during "safe" sections of road (wide, straight) drivers drove faster and took more maneuvering risks. In more dangerous sections (curvy, more traffic, etc) drivers drove more slowly. The key, however, was that drivers maintained a steady state of exposure to risk.

In another well known experiment, in 1977 the government of B.C., Canada instituted a crackdown on drunk driving. The crackdown lowered the rate of alcohol-caused accidents by about 25%, but during the six-month crackdown other types of accidents ROSE by 25%. Risk hoemeostasis would say that as people saw their (and others') driving risks due to alcohol reduced, they took more risks elsewhere.

Wilde's work investigated this idea and develops it into the theory of "risk homeostasis," which holds that people have a "risk target" of dangerous behaviours. When they reduce risky behaviour in one area (e.g. they start to wear seatbelts to increase the accident survival rate) they increase it in another (driving faster and more aggressively) to maintain a constant level of risk. Wilde suggests that this "target level" of risk is difficult to change, and presents a mass of evidence to suggest that impeoving safety of roads, cars etc does not, in fact, reduce the per-capita injury or death rate.

Wilde's theory accounts for a number of strange and well-documented phenomena. Smokers who quit smoking do not live longer (on average) than those who do not quit. Increases in traffic safety measures do not change the accident rate per capita-- the accident rate per mile driven drops, but the total number of miles driven increases. Insurance rate changes for those who have accidents do not change driver behaviour. Anti-smoking and anti-drinking etc campaigns do not work.

This is a clear and well-written book that presents a strange, counterintuitive and fascinating idea. The implications for teachers, politicians, health-care people and drivers are enormous. My only beef with the work is that Wilde gets his narrative (how he developed the theory) and his factual presnetations (what he found) mixed up at times. Overall, however, this is fine stuff.

2 of 2 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Outstanding!, August 18, 2003

By 

Jabawoki "jabawoki" (Stockport) - See all my reviews

This review is from: Target Risk 2: A New Psychology of Safety and Health (Paperback)

I sent for this book as part of my MSc in Health & Safety. What a joy to read the views of someone better qualified than me who sang from the same hymn book as me! This book talks about risk taking behaviour in the context of risk homeostasis and risk displacement and linking it in with road safety measures worldwide. This book is highly relevant to H & S professionals from all industries and service sectors, as the concepts given can be applied anywhere. You can even apply them to your own driver behaviour - you'll be surprised at the result! This has to be one of the few academic books that have not had me snoring within 3 minutes of attempting to read it - fascinating throughout! Some readers from the more conventional schools of thought may be irritated by the "one sidedness" of the views expressed here, but they are founded on 30 years of data. This book really should reach a much wider audience, especially those in Government. May I also recommend the book Risk by John Adams?

4.0 out of 5 stars Must read, February 21, 2002

By 

Ron Hendriks (Zoetermeer, ZH Netherlands) - See all my reviews

This review is from: Target Risk 2: A New Psychology of Safety and Health (Paperback)

This book of Gerald Wilde is a must read for anyone involved in traffic safety. It explains why some measures, like ABS systems or airbags, don't work the way you expect. People will drive faster and more dangerous, knowing about these safety measures, is the basic line. You may disagree with some of his views, but it will almost certainly change the way you think about traffic safety....