Technological Change and the Future of Warfare [Paperback]

Michael E. O'Hanlon (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: January 1, 2000 | ISBN-10: 0815764391 | ISBN-13: 978-0815764397

In light of the performance of American high-technology weapons in the 1991 Gulf War, many defence analysts have posited that we are on the threshold of a revolution in military affairs and the conduct of war. This text takes a more measured perspective, arguing that while important technological developments are in progress, the overall thrust of contemporary military innovation is probably not revolutionary in magnitude.

Editorial Reviews

About the Author

Michael O'Hanlon is a fellow at the Brookings Institution and adjunct professor at Columbia University. His previous publications include How to Be a Cheap Hawk: The 1999 and 2000 Defense Budgets (Brookings, 1998) and A Half Penny on the Federal Dollar: The Future of Development Aid (Brookings, 1997).

Product Details

• Paperback: 224 pages
• Publisher: Brookings Institution Press (January 1, 2000)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0815764391
• ISBN-13: 978-0815764397
• Product Dimensions: 9 x 6.1 x 0.7 inches
• Shipping Weight: 10.9 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 3.8 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (4 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #1,878,559 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Most Helpful Customer Reviews

10 of 13 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Puts RMA In Its Place, Smartly--Essential Reading, October 11, 2000

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Robert D. Steele (Oakton, VA United States) - See all my reviews
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This review is from: Technological Change and the Future of Warfare (Paperback)

Graciously, and with wicked clarity, the author knocks the so-called Revolution in Military Affairs flat on its back, and then helps it to one knee. His introductory review of the RMA schools of thought (system of systems, dominant battlespace knowledge, global reach, and vulnerability or anti-access or asymmetric), with appropriate notes, is helpful to any adult student. The heart of his book can be distilled down to one chart showing the expected rates of advance in the various technical domains relevant to military operations. Of 29 distinct technical groups across sensors, computers and communications; projectiles, propulsion, and platforms; and other weapons, he finds only two technology areas-computer hardware and computer software-capable of revolutionary change in the foreseeable future. Eight others-chemical sensors, biological sensors, radio communications, laser communications, radio-frequency weapons, nonlethal weapons, and biological weapons-are judged capable of high but not revolutionary advances. All other technical areas, namely those associated with mobility platforms and weaponry itself, are unlikely to develop at anything above a moderate pace. In the course of his discussion of each of these he brings forth the basics of physics and real-world constraints and points out that even the best of our sensors are frustrated by heavy rain and other man-made countermeasures. He correctly evaluates the inability of our existing and planned Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) to keep up with targeting needs, particularly in urban and heavy canopy terrain. He also notes in passing that human intelligence may well prove to be the sustaining element in finding individual people, and that there has been no significant change since World War II in the numbers of troops needed per 1,000 inhabitants-infantry is still the core force. He systematically dismisses a variety of RMA claims, among the most dangerous being that we can afford to stand down many of our forward bases, by pointing out that combat aircraft continue to have short ranges, ground forces continue to require heavy logistics sustainment, ships remain slow to cross oceans, and it continues to be extremely difficult to seize ports and other fixed infrastructure. He concludes the book with a number of budgeting recommendations, both for the USA and for its allies. For the USA he would emphasize communications and computing, the one area truly open to an RMA in the near term. Other areas meriting immediate investments include strategic sea and air lift, the rapid development of a lighter tank and a mine-resistant infantry vehicle, and improvements in naval mine warfare. He supports the National Missile Defense and would sustain more robust RDT&E experimentation. For a major US ally, with a fraction of our funding, he recommends a $15 billion total investment over several years to acquire a thoughtful mix of advanced C4I enhancements including ground stations, a fleet of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV), 1000 cruise missiles, 5000 short-range munitions, 500 advanced air to air missiles, a squadron of stealth aircraft, and several batteries of theater missile defense radars and missiles. A very nice listing of major Pentagon acquisition programs supports his recommendation that we economize on major weapons platforms and pursue a high-low mixed strategy, limiting, for example, our procurement of the F-22 and joint strike fighters so as to afford more F-15s and F-16s. Overall this book fulfills its mission of reviewing technologies in relation to the future of warfare, and it provides the reader with a very strong stepping stone for venturing into the literature of defense transformation. Those who would criticize this work for failing to consider the competition or the metrics of evaluation have a point, but only a point-the book does what it set out to do. It evaluates specific technologies in relation to the inflated and often delusional claims of the proponents of the RMA. One book cannot solve all our problems, but it can, as this book does, blow away some of the foggy thinking emanating from the Pentagon and other places where a number of flag officers and their staffs have lost sight of ground truth.

3 of 4 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars A fascinating look at military technology, January 24, 2002

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Kurt A. Johnson (North-Central Illinois, USA) - See all my reviews
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This review is from: Technological Change and the Future of Warfare (Paperback)

Throughout the twentieth century, warfare was revolutionized from the armies fielded by the British Empire during the Boer War to the high tech American army during the Persian Gulf War. It is the view of some, such as Alvin and Heidi Toffler, that the world is facing a new revolution in military affairs (RMA). In this book, the author examines the technology involved in military affairs, at the advances made in the past, and in the limitations that physics are likely to make on future advances.

I found this book to be quite fascinating. The author succeeds in giving a profound understanding of the technologies in use by the military. However, he is quite clear in his belief that the weapon systems are approaching the limits imposed upon them by physics. As such, future changes are likely to be evolutionary, rather than the revolutionary changes hoped for by proponents of RMA.

I don't know that I entirely agree with Professor O'Hanlon's conclusions, but I must say that he makes a very persuasive case. But, besides its conclusions, the books information on military technology is quite fascinating in any case. Therefore, if you are interested in military affairs, I highly recommend that you read this book.

5.0 out of 5 stars The Devil in the Details, November 7, 2006

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Retired Reader (New Mexico) - See all my reviews

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This review is from: Technological Change and the Future of Warfare (Hardcover)

The revolution in military affairs (RMA) movement is a direct outcome of the recognized need to transform the U.S. military to meet the challenges and dangers of a post Cold War world. Although a plethora of books and discussions have been produced by this movement, as this book makes clear, most have been lacking in the essential detailed thinking required to really implement such a revolution. O'Hanlon provides a real service by looking with some care at the four specific components that will be needed for an RMA: 1) improvements in computers and communications (C2); 2) improvements in sensor technology of all sorts; 3) development of lighter, stealthier weapons platforms for all battlefields; and 4) development of new types of weapons such as directed energy systems and space weapons. In O'Hanlon's opinion only C2 developments to date have really lived up to RMA concepts and the other three components have not developed very well at all. Indeed C2 developments have made possible the beginning of an implementation of a sub-set of the RMA, namely Network Centric Warfare. For a detailed discussion on this sub-set this reviewer recommends a book, "The Future of War" by Mark Mandeles (available Amazon.com). O'Hanlon provides the reader with rather good discussions of all four components in this book.

More importantly O'Hanlon argues for something often forgotten in all the generic talk about RMA and that is a need for a grand strategy to guide the Department of Defense (DOD) in the implementation of a true RMA. Such a strategy significantly also could be used to discipline DOD spending and prioritizing current and future military procurements. Equally important he emphasizes the need for a robust military research and development program to produce the components to realize a valid RMA.

O'Hanlon makes no secret of his skepticism of the RMA hypotheses, but at least to this reviewer he appears to be fair and evenhanded in his discussion of the movement.