Customer Reviews

Tehran Rising: Iran's Challenge to the United States

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These days, its hard to get Republicans and Democrats to agree on much of anything. So any book that gets glowing reviews from conservative congressmen and high-ranking Clinton-era officials alike is worth paying attention to.

This book discusses the imminent threat that Iran poses in a way that is nuanced and comprehensive on one hand, and extremely accessible on the other. From nuclear enrichment to terrorism, from the Persian Gulf to Central Asia, Iran's activities are detailed in sharp and vivid terms.

Where it really shines, however, is in the final chapters dealing with policy prescriptions. The author's suggestions for how the US can contain Iran are practical and workable, but he also makes a compelling case for Iran's latent democratic potential and empowering the forces of change within the theocratic regime.

Teheran Rising is a book that policymakers will find very valuable. As Professor Berman notes, two clocks are racing in Iran, the nuclear clock and the regime change clock. The United States, its allies, and Iran's neighbors have a vital interest in seeing that Iran experiences a democratic transition before the current regime can realize its nuclear ambitions.

Teheran Rising describes the consequences of the worst case scenario, an emboldened Iran achieving virtual regional hegemony and continuing to utilize the cat's paw of terrorist surrogates which it has perfected in over 25 years of state sponsorship. I liked the book because it was clear and to the point; Professor Berman accurately analyzes the current situation in Iran, the probable outcomes and implications for the United States, and offers some innovative policy perscriptions.

The US can try to ignore the Iranian problem but it won't go away. Anyone interested in Middle East policy should give this book a look.

This book is a decent summary of current events regarding Iran. The focus is on the current threat from Iran, including nuclear and terrorism. Although written from a hawkish point of view, the author correctly identifies the clear and present danger Iran poses and offers some ideas on how to deal with these issues. As this is a very complex subject, there are no easy answers, just a matter of trying to choose the best of the worst scenarios. A lot of the book's content I've seen elsewhere, but one of the sections that really stood out as valuable was the discussion of the relationships between Iran and its neighbors. If you're looking for a detailed and lengthy discussion of current events regarding Iran, this is probably not the book for you. If you want a short summary, its not bad.

This book is about Iran's rising international influence and activities. For that Ilan Berman quotes many open sources to explain her terrorist activities, regional ambitions and past US policies. Based on his interpretations of the situation, he also proposes in the last chapters how America should respond.

The book starts with Iran's role in terrorism. The rising oil prices, has given Iran much extra dollars to spend on the global jihad. Iran is now not only funding the Lebanon based Hezzbolla but has expanded it's funding to control and operate a world wide terrorism network. For example they now also fund non Shia groups like, Islamic Jihad (main sponsor) and Hamas (10%). There is even evidence they work together with Al'qaeda to destabilize Iraq and work together with other enemies of the West like Cuba.

At the same time as Iran is expanding it's global terrorist network, it also is aggressively investing in nuclear technology. They buy the technology from countries like China, Pakistan, Korea and Russia. Throughout the country, geographical distributed, fortified and underground the Iranians have build nuclear facilities. But besides investing in these nuclear technologies they are also investing heavily in other military industries. They develop and export missile technology that is already capable of reaching Europe; they are building their own submarines, fighter jets and lots of other weapon systems.

This book describes how Iran is using these developments to become a regional super power. Ilan Berman argues that their regional power is so big that even the other main regional power, Turkey, is beginning to accept the dominance of Iran. The Iranian influence is also seen in the important Gulf region; especially the smaller countries come more and more under the influence of Iran.

So far, the US, not to speak of Europe, has done too little to stop the growing influence of the hostile and radical Islamic state. The solution Ilan Berman proposes is to enhance the security situation of the other countries in the region, try to stop the nuclear imports and to combine these actions with a propaganda effort to the Iranian people in order to destabilize the Iran regime.

Although this seems to be the absolute minimum, he does not succeed to explain the policy convincingly. What will happen when Iran goes nuclear, long before the long-term strategy for regime change comes about? He also does not explores the possibility that a new regime, although not radical Islamic in nature but probably Islamic nationalistic, will continue its nuclear development (The nuclear ambitions of Iran are predating the Islamic revolution of Iran.)

Also the suggestion that America should exploit the regional power struggle, by helping the surrounding Islamic states to improve their security situation, is not a policy without risk. Ilan Berman his proposal seems to discount too much the unifying role of Islam. World wide, Islam has more and more become an unifying role in opposition to the West, this can not all be contributed to Iran's influence in the region. This role of Islam could offset the power struggle of the states surrounding Iran, especially because these are relatively new states. But the book does not engage this problem enough although Afghanistan should warn us that these kinds of policies could backfire heavily to the US.

Although I found some proposals not convincing enough, the book is a very good and quick read with it's 150 pages. It's full interesting facts and policy analysis regarding Iran.

Recommended .

The Foreword by William Schneider (Undersecretary of State, 1982-86) relates that the Iranian radicals who held U.S. diplomats hostage for 444 days revealed in their memoirs that they originally intended to let the hostages go after only a few days, but changed their minds once Carter made it clear there was no danger of an American intervention. He goes on to conclude that for the U.S. to send the same message now to a nuclear Iran would be a tragic mistake.

Iran has become one of the biggest beneficiaries of the War on Terror - it has eliminated the threat posed by Tehran's most immediate military adversary, and U.S. successes against the Taliban have removed an ideological competitor for Muslim minds in that area.

"Tehran Rising" states that the Islamic war against the U.S. began not on 9/11, but 2/79 when the Ayatollah Khomeini returned to Iran - "Death to the Great Satan, America." Subsequent activities include an April, '83 Hezbollah-orchestrated (U.S. estimates Iran support for Hezbollah at about $100 million/year) truck bombing at the U.S. embassy in Beirut - leaving 63 dead, six months later a similar bomb at the Marine barracks in Beirut leaving 241 dead, the March '84 kidnapping and later killing of a CIA station chief, and seven months later a bombing at the U.S. Embassy annex killing 24, including 2 American military. In response, Reagan in '84 ordered withdrawal - so much for exclusively blaming Clinton for today's surge in terror. The U.S. then went on, under Reagan, to support Hussein in the eight-year conflict between Iraq and Iran.

Iran's nuclear effort involves close to two dozen sites, some hardened underground, spread around the country - the exact locations not known in all cases. The U.S. invasion of Iraq (no nuclear weapons), coupled with its failure to do so in North Korea (does have) has increased Iran motivation to get nuclear weapons. The head of Israeli military intelligence warned in January, 2005 that Iran was 6 months from enriching uranium. Iran also now has missiles capable of reaching Israel. U.N. resolve on the topic is limited by both Russia and China (major suppliers to Iran) having veto power in the U.N. Security Council.

Iran's strength has resurged as the price of oil has recently soared, allowing heavy arms purchases. It now has a navy capable of blockading oil shipments - if not thwarted by the U.S. or others. Meanwhile latest news reports indicate it is seeking to acquire more. Iran's strength has also benefitted from the U.S.S.R.'s collapse spawning 8 new states in Central Asia/Caucasus, mostly majority Muslims and primarily secular un the Soviet Union. Further, Berman reports that the Russians now see Iran as a buffer against U.S. intrusions, and Iran's energy supplies luring Turkey closer to it.

So, what should the U.S. do? Berman points out that our policy to-date has been unclear and indecisive. When seemingly moderate Khatami was elected the U.S. hoped for progress, and even ignored the Khobar Towers bombing incident - despite the FBI's conclusive evidence that it was sponsored by Iran. Now a much harder leader is in charge who has clearly reasserted Iran's hatred towards Israel, while the U.S. has largely taken a backseat to Europe in efforts to negotiate limits on Iran's nuclear efforts.

Berman suggests that we try to convince Russia that it is not in her interest to have a nuclear Iran. (This has not worked so far.) I suspect that at least most of the problem has been caused by prior U.S. and British meddling in the area - eg. establishing Israel and strongly supporting it vs. Palestine, supporting Iraq in the Iran-Iraq war, and of course our latest invasion of Iraq. It is time for serious rethinking of policy.

Since "Tehran Rising" was printed, its leader has proclaimed "Death to Israel," it has tested medium-range missiles and a fast underwater torpedo, and the rhetoric has steadily escalated. Now the U.S. is undertaking military planning that includes the use of tactical nuclear "bunker-busters" and may include 400+ targets (eg. including anti-aircraft, submarine and missile sites), rumored to be satisfied with nothing less than regime-change (aka Saddam), planted military personnel within Iran to accurately map their nuclear facilities, etc. Perhaps the U.S. has become an even bigger danger.

Rather than escalate an already overly complcated situation (eg. Iran has ties to China and Russia, the U.S. is overly dependent on foreign oil, Israel increasingly has become a U.S. satellite - dragging us into its problems, I believe it is time for a drastic oil conservation program, withdrawal of U.S. troops from most areas around the world, cessation of our silly program to export democracy (others laugh at our "wholesale vote-buying"), and correction of our self-destructive trade and Federal deficits. In other words, let's focus on cleaning up our own problems.

Berman outlines the rapid rise of Tehran.For years it has been identified by the State Department as the number one state- supporter of terror in the world. But now on many diplomatic, political and military fronts it is creating new challenges for the United States. The most publicized of course is the nuclear front where Iran in defiance of the IAEA continues to work on its enrichment program. But more than this Iran has systematically conducted a campaign of lies and deceptions in order to hide its nuclear program. Berman himself is not sure how close Iran is to nuclear weapons at this moment, but he considers this threat one of the major challenges not only for military reasons, facing the United States today.

Iran both in the Persian Gulf and in Central Asia is crowding the United States diplomatically. The outcome of the American effort in Iraq to create a viable democracy is certainly threatened by Iran's increasingly closer ties with the Iraqi Shiite majority.

Berman points to the sources of instability in Iran. Its extremely young population the great majority of whom have known nothing but the regime of the Mullahs are restless and discontent. There are high rates of unemployment, and a general sympathetic attitude toward greater liberalization in cultural matters. But all the elements which are working from inside to shake the regime, are as Berman sees it, working at a slower pace than is the diplomatic and military threat Tehran is presenting to the West.

Berman details operative policies through which the United States can counter the growing threat from Tehran.

This is an invaluable and timely book which every student of US foreign policy would be advised to read.

If not, discard their obvious racism toward Jews and hatred for the country and culture which has (somewhat foolishly?) taken them in. They want to see America at the mercy of the sword of Islam--a dubious mercy, by all accounts.

I don't and I'll bet you don't either.

For some reason Ilan Berman is strongly biased towards Israel, thus he can not present Iran but as a radical, dangerous, terrorist-sponsoring state which must be eradicated. Although he does not keep the balance when he cites his well founded arguments, he is a very able scholar and analyst. He says that the radical reversal of oil prices, from $30 to more than $70 in the last five years, has given Iran an unexpected economic windfall, helped to jump-start Tehran's rearmament and to revive the Islamic Republic's regional ambitions. Iran has indeed been connected to many terrorist activities, has a more aggressive military posture recently and has tried to export the revolution to its immediate neighborhood but there is no proof that it tried to destabilize the global markets by raising the prices exorbitantly. Berman has many arguments though to show that Iran has made many attempts to form an anti-American axis in the region and play its own "great game" in central Asia (which I find absolutely logical given its encirclement by US forces). When studying the preemptive air stikes scenarios (which do not cover more than a couple of pages), he agrees with the results of recent wargames held in the US, which concluded that "the available American military options are likely to fail in the long term". He also tries hard to hide the fact that Israel is always behind these war scenarios, stating that "the West should not expect "Little Israel" to avert a crisis over Iran's nuclear program" and referring to Ariel Sharon's diplomatic statement that "Israel is not planning to attack Iran. The way to treat Iran is to exercise political and economic pressure". It seems that Israel wishes to keep its hands clean this time, sending US military to do the dirty job on its behalf like it did in Iraq! On the other hand, if the pressure on the US will not bear fruit, then Israel itself will probably take action against Iran. Analysing what must be done in order to defuse the crisis, Berman supports a more energetic diplomatic campaign, by using Turkey, Pakistan and the Caspian states to contain Iran. He adopts the theory that the Iranian people is on the verge of a new revolution against the theocratic regime (something that I doubt) and that the last needs only a push in order to collapse. "Iran is in the throes of a demographic and ideological upheaval" he writes, and "the country's political consensus has begun to crumble". In order to speed this process, destroying the iranian regime from within, he suggests that US and her allies should adopt the Reagan Doctrine of the '80s: expanding and optimizing existing outreach, financing external broadcasting sources, funding complimentary public diplomacy and political warfare mechanisms, and deterring foreign interference. "The resuscitation of such initiatives toward Iran is especially vital, given the age of the Iranian population (70% under the age of 30) and their increasingly evident discontent with the current clerical regime". Tha author stretches his argument further, saying that "the Iranians are still in search of their Lech Walesa" and that "the overthrow of the Islamic Republic of Iran is good for America and good for the Iranian people". Analysts like Berman seem not to have learnt anything about people?s attitude and islamic feelings from the Iraqi adventure and expect the Iranians to hail US sanctions or military stikes as a chance to get free! I think this is a very dangerous illusion. Besides, when Berman recounts president Bush's saying that "the US must defend liberty and justice because these principles are right and true for all people everywhere" somoeone must remind him of the "liberty and justice" of occupied Cyprus and the numerous UN decisions that Turkey defies for 30 years with the support of the US. The world is not black and white and the US are not the crusader of liberty and justice but just of their own strategic interests like any superpower before them, and this is the bitter truth.

Ilan Berman has written a succinct description of the reasons why a nuclear Iran is unthinkable. Iran, he tells us, is far more involved in the exportation of the Revolution(terrorist activities) than most of us are probably aware of. For example, Iran has equipped Hezbollah with an enormous number of powerful weapons including missiles. He concludes however that the surgical strike option is untenable and lists the imagined repercussions other agencies have listed. He prefers beefign up our Voice of America with news rather than music (a good idea). He says that it isn't too late for diplomacy because Iran won't have its first nuclear weapon until at least 2006. I did a quick check of the publishing date and saw that it read 2005, but guess he wrote it in 2004. He left me believing that despite his ruling out a Surgical Strike, we'd better rule it back in if a Nuclear Iran is truly unthinkable.

Ilan formulates his thesis well, and as usual makes his analysis first rate. I highly recommend this book to anyone concerned about the future of the US-Middle East relationship in the 21st Century. A must read for the future policy makers of the next administration.