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The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries are Failing and What Can Be Done About It

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Paul Collier. The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries Are Failing and What Can Be Done about It. New York: Oxford University Press, 2007.

Paul Collier is Professor of Economics and Director of the Centre for the Study of African Economics at Oxford University. Previously, he worked for the World Bank and the British government's Commission on Africa. As an expert on Africa and economics, he has analyzed the current global economic situation and discovered that 58 states, mostly in Africa, can be classified as failing or failed. The citizens of these nations constitute the "bottom billion," who have been left out of global prosperity. He calls this "a world with a vast running sore--a billion people stuck in desperate conditions alongside unprecedented prosperity" (p. 175). He is determined to find practical ways to help these people out of their dilemma.

Contrary to Jeffrey Sachs, who approaches global poverty as a problem to be solved through increased western aid, Collier says that aid is not a solution by itself and it can even make the problem worse. Contrary to William Easterly, who emphasizes the need for local solutions to poverty, Collier still believes in collective action by the G-8 nations on behalf of the bottom billion. Collier strikes the middle ground between these two other experts, calling for hardnosed decisions about solving the problems unique to the bottom billion. He has little time for the efforts of celebrities and some charitable organizations who approach poverty with "a headless heart" (p. 4). He prefers hard data and analysis.

Collier is a number cruncher, and appears to have investigated issues of the bottom billion from every angle. While other economists may clutter their work with data and jargon, Collier keeps all the technical matters out of sight in order to deliver the bottom line of his research; this makes the book more readable.

Whereas the other five billion humans have begun to benefit from the effects of globalization, Collier says that that train has already left the station where the bottom billion could have boarded it. And it will be a long time before the train comes around to them again because China and India have taken all the available seats. In fact, he calculates that the bottom billion will be stuck in their present sad state on average for the next 59 years!

Why is Collier so gloomy about their prospects? He describes four traps that the bottom billion fall into: the conflict trap (73% have gone through a civil war), natural resource trap (29% rely on exports of some resource like oil or minerals), being landlocked (30% have restricted access to ports and are surrounded by bad neighbors), and bad governance (76% are badly governed and make bad decisions about the economy). These traps are often interrelated, as the abundance of a natural resource may lead to conflict.

The ironic curse of having an abundant resource is that it brings in sizeable revenues that detract from making necessary reforms or from diversifying into other export products. And aid can be just like a resource trap, creating not only sudden extra money, but allowing a system of patronage to develop instead of accomplishing public good. Collier cites studies that estimate that aid ceases to be effective when it reaches 16% of Gross Domestic Product, which is close to the average current level of aid to African nations already.

Collier is not so gloomy as to say that nothing can be done about the bottom billion. He describes four instruments that can help if used wisely: aid, security, laws and charters, and trade. He does not think that globalization will automatically correct anything for the bottom billion, but only wise intervention from other nations to help the reform-minded citizens of the failing states. For example, he believes that extended foreign military intervention can best be used in postconflict situations to provide stability and prevent available resources going back into military expenses at a time when opportunity exists for reforms in crucial areas. International laws and charters can describe and enforce universal norms expected for aid and trade. And in trade, the bottom billion need protection from the giants of Asia to break into manufacturing and services in order to move out of the resource trap.

Overall, The Bottom Billion is one of the more realistic books that seeks to improve life and conditions for the poorest people on the planet. This makes the book sobering to read but gives it a feel of solid research into the causes and remedies of their situation. On the other hand, Collier's recommendations still seem to suffer from wishful thinking, assuming that the international community may actually work in harmony to tackle this thorny problem. His analysis seems realistic but his remedies seem utopian. There is scant evidence, for example, that nations have learned how to use military intervention constructively to solve actual problems of the bottom billion. Collier cites only one instance, the British intervention in Sierra Leone, as being on target to help that nation get back on its feet. Other interventions, however, have mostly made the problems much worse, as in Iraq.

Of the 6 billion people that inhabit the earth, it has been estimated that about 1 billion live in wealthy countries, 4 billion live in developing countries, and about 1 billion live in countries whose economies are either stagnant or declining. About 70 percent of those in the last category are in Africa. Now comes Paul Collier, director of the Center for the Study of African Economies at Oxford University, adding his name to the list of those who have attempted to formulate a strategy for lifting the bottom billion out of poverty. (Others include Jeffrey Sachs in The End of Poverty: Economic Possibilities for Our Time and William Easterly in The White Man's Burden: Why the West's Efforts to Aid the Rest Have Done So Much Ill and So Little Good.)

Sachs is an optimist who believes that aid, correctly applied, can solve Africa's poverty. Easterly, on the other hand, is a pessimist, but concedes that aid, applied in a piecemeal fashion to see what works, can work. Collier is more of Easterly's persuasion, but differs in that he, Collier, is more interventionist.

According to Collier, the bottom billion live in "trapped countries," that have no visible means of improving their lot. He identifies 4 elements that cause countries to become trapped:

1)Civil war. Three-quarters of the bottom billion have been through or are currently experiencing civil war. Civil wars usually occur where there are large numbers of unemployed and uneducated young men, and where there are ethnic imbalances.

2)Natural resource curse. Countries with large amounts of natural resources tend not to develop the skill sets of their people, and they tend not to hold democratic elections. Corrupt governments and impoverished and violent masses are usually the result.

3)Landlocked countries. This is odd because many of the countries in Africa are coastel or on major waterways. Granted, being in a landlocked country is economically disadvantageous.

4)Bad governance. Bad governance is the hallmark of trapped countries often caused by elements 1 and 2.

Collier points out that aid is not a good idea since it works like the resource curse. It supports kleptocrats without making them accountable to their people. Indeed aid can retard economic development.

Furthermore, it has been established that most poor countries that have emerged from poverty have done so through labor-intensive export industries. The problem for Africa is that China and others are currently doing this making it very competitive. Collier thinks that best way for rich countries to foster growth in Africa is to eliminate or reduce tariffs on their exports. This prescription would probably fall on deaf ears in rich countries who are forever trying to protect their own industries.

More controversially, Collier argues that foreign military intervention would be helpful in stabilizing countries wracked by civil war. Currently, that would be a non-starter given the events in Iraq. There is, however evidence to support his claim: i.e. Sierra Leone.

The best advice that Collier gives is requiring trapped countries to comply with international laws and regulations in exchange for aid. Call it imperialism if you will, but the practice of the European Union of requiring recipients of aid to sign charters for better governance is really the best way to alleviate poverty. The European way of soft power is so far the most effective way to make development aid work.

I read a lot, almost entirely in non-fiction, and this book is easily one of the "top ten" on the future and one of the top three on extreme poverty, in my own limited reading.

The other three books that have inspired me in this specific area are:
The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid
Creating a World Without Poverty: Social Business and the Future of Capitalism
The End of Poverty: Economic Possibilities for Our Time

There is an enormous amount of actionable wisdom in this book, which is deceptively easy to read and digest. The author's bottom line is clear early on:

A. The fifty failing states at the bottom, most in Africa, others in Central Asia, are a cesspool of misery that is terribly dangerous to all others, exporting disease, crime, and conflict.

B. The responsibility for peace to enable prosperity cannot be expected from within--it must be provided as a common good from outside. In support of this point, toward the end of the book, the author posits a 15:1 return on investment from $250M a year in investment and aid, mostly technical assistance.

This book is a superb guide for regional authorities and international coalitions with respect to the value of non-military interventions.
The author provides compelling yet concise overviews of the four traps that affect the billion at the bottom:

A. The Conflict Trap
B. The Natural Resource Export Trap
C. Landlocked in a Bad Neighbors Trap
D. Poor and Corrupt Governance

The author describes the need for a "whole of government" approach, both among those seeking to deliver assistance, and those receiving it.
I have a note, a new insight at least to me, that AIDs proliferated so quickly across Africa because of the combination of mass rape followed by mass migration. There are many other gifted turns of phrase throughout.
A study on the cost of a Kalashnikov is most helpful. The author tells us that the legacy of any war is the proliferation of inexpensive small arms into the open market.

Across the book the author points out that the gravest threat to governance and stability within any fragile economy is a standing army.
Each of the traps is discussed in depth.

The middle of the book outlines nine-strategies for the land-locked who suffer from being limited to their neighbors as a marketplace, rather than the world as a whole.

1. Work with neighbors to create cross-border transport infrastructure
2. Work to improve neighbors' economies for mutual benefit
3. Work to improve access to coastal areas (the author points out that the sea is so essential, that landlocked countries should not* be* countries, they should be part of a larger country that borders the sea)
4. Become a haven of peace, providing financial and other services.
5. Don't be air-locked or electronically-locked (the first study of the Marine Corps that I led in 1988-1989 found that half of the countries of concern did not have suitable ports but all had ample C-130 capable airfields).
6. Encourage remittances
7. Create transparent investment-friendly environment for resource prospecting
8. Focus on rural development
9. Attract aid

Toward the end of the book I am struck by the author's pointed (and documented) exclusion of democracy and civil rights as necessary conditions for reform. Instead, large populations, secondary education, and a recent civil war (opening paths to change), are key.
$64 billion is the cost to the region of a civil war, with $7 billion being the minimal expected return on investment for preventing a civil war in the country itself.

Bad policies come with a sixty year hang-over.

Asia is the solid middle and makes trade a marginal and unlikely option for rescuing Africa UNLESS there are a combination of trade barriers against imports from Asia, and unreciprocal trade preferences from richer countries. In the context of globalization, only capital and people offer hope.

In the author's view, capital is not going to the bottom billion because:

A. Bottom of the barrel risk
B. Too small to learn about
C. Genuinely fragile

In terms of human resources, after discussing capital flight, the author concludes that the educated leave as quickly as they can. I am inspired by this discussion to conclude that we need a Manhattan project for Africa, in which a Prosperity Corps of Gray Eagles is incentivized to adopt one of the 50 failed states, and provided with a semblance of normal living and working conditions along with bonuses for staying in-country for ten years or more. As I reflect on how the USA has spent $30 billion for "diplomacy" in 2007, and over $975 billion for waging war, (such that the Comptroller General just resigned from a fifteen year appointment after telling Congress the USA is "insolvent") this begs public outrage and engagement.

As the book makes its way to the conclusion the author's prose grabs me:

"We should be helping the heroes" attempting reform

We are guilty in the West of "inertia, ignorance, and incompetence."

The "cesspool of misery....is both terrible....and dangerous."

Several other noteworthy highlights (no substitute for buying and reading the book in its entirety:

Aid does offer a 1% growth kick

Aid bureaucracy, despite horror stories, adds real value in contrast to funds that vanish into the corrupt local government

Misdirection of unrestricted funds leads to militarization and instability.

The author touches briefly on the enormous value that industry can offer when it is finally incentivized to do so. DeBeers and its certification process are cited with respect, perhaps saving diamonds from going the way of fur.

The author stresses that top-down transparency enables bottom-up public scrutiny and the two together help drive out corruption (something Lawrence Lessig has committed the remainder of his life to).

There is an excellent section on irresponsible NGOs, notably Christian Aid, feared by the government and not understood by the public.
I put the book down with a very strong feeling of hope.

Other books I recommend, in addition to the three above:
A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility--Report of the Secretary-General's High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change
Deliver Us from Evil: Peacekeepers, Warlords and a World of Endless Conflict
Confessions of an Economic Hit Man
The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism
The Unconquerable World: Power, Nonviolence, and the Will of the People
The leadership of civilization building: Administrative and civilization theory, symbolic dialogue, and citizen skills for the 21st century
Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization, Third Edition

Every year, the Council on Foreign Relations picks two books for discussion among its members across the nation. This past autumn, Paul Collier's "The Bottom Billion" was selected. I'm glad it was; otherwise, I would never have picked this book up and would have missed out on a compelling, if not necessarily inspiring, read.

To begin with, Collier's work needs to be placed in proper context. The international development community is currently engaged in a rather fierce debate, which was one of the many things that I learned while reading "The Bottom Billion." On the left, there is celebrity economist Jeffery Sachs of Columbia University and his recent book, "The End of Poverty: Economic Possibilities for Our Time," which paints an optimistic picture of just how much and how relatively quickly international aid can work to ameliorate poverty around the globe. On the right sits NYU economist William Easterly and his anti-Sachs book "The White Man's Burden: Why the West's Efforts to Aid the Rest Have Done So Much Ill and So Little Good." In his book, Easterly lampoons the West's misguided efforts to alleviate suffering around the world from their cozy offices on H Street and Morningside Heights. Collier quite consciously puts his arguments forward as a middle path between Sachs' Pollyanna vision on the constructive impact of international aid and Easterly's depressing view of the Third World as a hopeless basket case.

Within the development community, it has become fashionable to ascribe failure to achieve economic growth to a certain set of "traps," and Collier, an Oxford economist who has devoted his professional career to studying African economies, puts forth four specific traps of his own: 1) civil war; 2) natural resources; 3) landlocked with bad neighbors; and 4) poor governance. It is important to note that Collier specifically rejects any notion of "African exceptionalism" (i.e. Africa is a mess for a set of reasons unique to Africa) and stresses that the aforementioned traps apply to countries outside of Africa, specifically those in Central Asia and some isolated cases in the Caribbean, South America and South East Asia. That said, let's not kid anyone: this is a book about Africa and determining how the developed world can most effectively rescue nearly 800 million Africans from the horror of living on the precipice of starvation. Thus the term "bottom billion." Collier notes that the development community focuses on the six billion people living in the developing world, which includes such economic development stars as India, China, and Brazil, whereas they should be squarely focused on the bottom billion who reside in such backwaters as Central African Republic or Burkina Faso. Indeed, although Collier never claims this in his work, it seems to me that the author's arguments suggest that the bottom billion should be further triaged. Some countries, like CAR and Burkina Faso, which fall into the most pathetic of Collier's traps - landlocked with bad neighbors - are essentially beyond saving. Just as corpsman on the battlefield have the unenviable job of putting certain casualty cases off to the side so they can work on those that can actually be saved, it seems to me that the thrust of Collier's work is that the development community should focus on the top half of the bottom billion; countries that suffer mainly from poor governance and/or suffer from the Dutch Disease caused by dependence on oil or diamonds in their economy, and which have the greatest opportunity to achieve sustainable economic growth with the proper type and level of outside assistance.

More than anything else, I was depressed by Collier's take on globalization and what it means for sub-Saharan Africa. In short, he argues that the bottom billion missed the boat on globalization and the opportunity to establish competitive positions in low cost manufacturing. Instead, the continent remains mired in natural resource dependency or commodity mineral/or agricultural production. Collier sees factories that produce widgets for the West as the ideal path to sustainable, stable growth. And now that East Asia has effectively captured that market, there is no incentive for western manufacturers to move operations to Africa where the wage differential is minimal and the political risk is extreme. In one of Collier's many memorable phrases: "Economic growth is not a cure all, but lack of growth is a kill all." Without large scale, low cost manufacturing, Collier seems to suggest that the most vulnerable African economies will continue to cling to 1 per cent GDP growth, which tends to be fueled mainly by aid initiatives and results in its own form of Dutch Disease.

This leads to the final, notably depressing aspect of Collier's arguments: those in the development "biz" and "buzz" are fundamentally part of the problem. Collier spent some time in a senior leadership position at the World Bank, so he presumable knows what he is talking about. He writes that development professionals are rewarded for allocating funds and not taking risks. Meanwhile, the Bonos and Angelina Jolies of the world pour energy and attention to well-meaning but completely ineffective efforts like building schools for girls where there is no hope to gain employment after graduation. Meanwhile, in Collier's view, idealistic non-governmental organizations often serve as "useful idiots" for the knuckle-dragging anti-globalization movement, which views Collier's greatest, long-term development hope, low cost manufacturing, as purely exploitative to developing economies (the large British NGO "Christian Aid" comes in for a particularly withering assault by Collier on this topic). While World Bank and IMF officials engage in bureaucratic turf battles and distribute aid in the most parochial manner, rock stars shine a spotlight on photo-ops with little long term economic benefit, and NGOs contribute to the stereo-type of capitalism as something diabolic, the African leaders themselves sit back and actively thwart any attempts to instill meaningful reform so as to preserve their powerbase, which is inevitably build on graft and corruption. There are no heroes in "The Bottom Billion," that is for sure.

So what can be done about? Collier lays out a litany of international charters and norms that should be established, which all sound reasonable and plausible to implement, but hardly give one much hope for significant change any time soon. Perhaps that is the point of this book. The situation is really deplorable in sub-Saharan African - in fact, staggeringly so. The vast majority of the international development players and indigenous leaders are a fundamental part of the problem. The best hope for real improvement was lost when East Asia decisively captured the low cost manufacturing opportunity that was presented with globalization. In the end, Collier doesn't offer a middle path between Sachs and Easterly. Rather, he makes Easterly's point more humanely and persuasively, while holding out a few threads of hope on which one might close their eyes, make a wish, and pull.

Paul Collier has created a true masterpiece in the Bottom Billion. This book plays a critical role as the bridge between the 'headless heart' that Jeffrey Sachs sometimes seems to be and the pessimism of Easterly. Collier espouses real solutions to real problems, which he outlines with fluidity and emotion. He clearly has an immense heart, and yet fills his book with hard facts and difficult, yet viable solutions. One of the most critical books of the year dealing with development, if not the decade.

Overall, this is a very good book, and 21 earlier reviews on Amazon.com successfully summarize its good points. There are some really major problems, though.
One is that the situation of the bottom billion is even worse than Collier says, and worsening even faster. He does not take into account the rapid environmental collapse that has ruined farmers, fishermen, loggers, and subsistence producers in general. (One reviewer thinks that sector is still healthy; no, it isn't.) Rapid population increase, overfishing, rampant unregulated logging by rich-nation firms, oil extraction, soil erosion, water pollution, and so on have led to catastrophic decline for the rural majority in these countries. Collier's only comment is a dismissive one about "sacred" environmental issues (p. 108; "sacred" is a BAD word for economists, which tells you something about the breed).
I fear this is partly because the First World is at fault in much of this, and, though Collier does pillory the First World on occasion (notably its oil corporations and trade subsidies--he's very good on these), he generally has little to say about its shenanigans. Giant international logging, construction, fishing, mining, commodity, and above all armaments firms have done plenty to keep the bottom billion down, as Collier knows perfectly well. Above all, Collier is naturally kind to his former home, the World Bank, which kept loaning money to the Marcos dictatorship, the Mobutu Sese Seko government, and others of that nature, long after everyone knew what those governments were doing with it. The WB has also kept building large dams, though their own analysts have pointed out (in reports--and some to me personally, in more pungent language) that these dams are disastrous for local poor and rarely or never have favorable cost-benefit ratios. Collier is also high on "structural adjustments," without a word about those that led governments to close down schools and health care while continuing to feed bloated military establishments.
His dismissal of fair trade is a pretty good sample. He says it is a "charitable transfer." It is not, if it's done right. It's going around monopolistic (technically, oligopsonistic) commodity firms to get fair prices directly to producers. He then says all it does is keep the beneficiaries producing their products. Well, sure; it's supposed to. Coffee, his example, is something I happen to know a lot about. The small producers that grow good coffee rarely have an alternative, and can get really good prices for their stuff from fair trade. The ones who get fair-trade recognition generally produce the best. If they can go round, or even through, the five or six giant buyer/roaster firms and get reasonable prices, they SHOULD stay in coffee, unless they can find something better to do. Cheating people out of their livelihood and then making them pick up a nothing job is the alternative.
Here and elsewhere, Collier tends to use a dismissive style, often arguing by insult rather than by data. He frequently deploys the term "politically correct," a particularly mindless slur; it has no informational content at all, and prefaces many an unsupported point in this book. Recall, also, the slur use of "sacred." Lots more like that in here.
Collier has an excellent list of recommendations, and I agree with most of them, but if they are to work, we of the First World have to rein in not only our subsidies of our own (as he says), but also our adventuring and our giant firms above the law (not just oil, either). We also have to work on fair trade issues. The world talks of "free trade," but what we have now is subsidized giant firms, backed up and supported by military might (from Guatemala in 1954 to Iraq in 2003), bullying the bottom billion and everyone else.
Collier's ideas would help, even if this remained true--but none of his reforms are likely to be adopted in such a world.

Humanity has never been so prosperous in recorded history, as we are in the beginning of the twenty-first century. However the bottom billion, the poorest of the poor continue to lead miserable lives just across our homes. This population accounts for a sixth of the world's population and is concentrated mostly in countries of Africa and Central Asia. Paul Collier's statistical analysis of huge databases painfully collected from various sources point out to four primary factors that contribute to "failing states": Conflict, Natural resources (and Dutch disease), Landlocked and Poor Governance. The book does not give too many details of the research methodology and statistical tools, but only presents a crisp summary of the outcome. This aspect is good for readers who would like to avoid heavy academic material and focus only on the issues in simple terms. In essence this approach makes difficult topics very simple to comprehend.

Paul Collier's structure of the book, firstly an overview of the bottom billion issues, then a chapter each for the four traps and a chapter each for four bold solutions (Aid, Military Intervention, Laws and Charters and Trade Policy) makes it highly readable.

To compare this book with "Culture and Prosperity" by John Kay, I found some common factors that are responsible for poverty. However, Collier's work is not just about what causes poverty, but in the current context of globalization, looking at utilizing the strengths of other prosperous countries and global institutions, to find a quick and permanent solution to banish poverty and misery from all parts of the world. This made me compare the book with "The End of Poverty" by Jeffrey Sachs. Collier's approach is broader than Sachs's and includes some bold measures like Military Intervention and takes a multi disciplinary approach. The deep passion and the urgency for solutions to end global poverty, is identical in both the books.

Some findings in the book are striking and interesting. For example, on the impact of globalization, Collier explains how globalization has further aggravated the problems of the bottom billion in terms of flight of skills and capital from these countries. Similarly, he advocates favorable trade policies from developed countries to protect the bottom billion countries from competition from China and India, since these Asian giants have already made rapid strides in economic growth in the last three decades during which the bottom billion have missed the boat. The boat would never come back in the near future and hence the need for some innovative measures.

On the whole, I would unhesitatingly give this book a five star rating. It is important that this book gets published in multiple languages to spread the great ideas, especially in those countries that matter most- the bottom and the top and to initiate global action to eradicate poverty from the face of this beautiful planet.

This is one the best policy books that I have read and an example of what a good policy book should be all about. It deals with the subject that is often in public spotlight and yet it seems as intractable today as it was decades ago. This sad state of affairs may in at least part be attributed to some of the misunderstanding of what global poverty is all about, who is most affected by it, and what sort of traps those most affected find themselves incapable of escaping. As this book clearly argues, the so called "poverty trap" in and of itself is not a trap at all, since otherwise all World would still be as poor as a few centuries ago. Furthermore, vast segments of the "global poor" actually live in countries that are developing at a more or less steady pace and can expect to be lifted out of that poverty within a generation or two. The ones who seem stuck are the bottom billion of the world population, and this book deals with them. The research that this book is based on comes up with four basic traps that could permanently hinder the poorest countries in development. The traps, some of them counterintuitive, are:

1. The Conflict Trap
2. The Natural Resource Trap
3. Landlocked with Bad Neighbors
4. Bad Governance in a Small Country

Not every one of the poorest countries in the world is subject to all of these traps, but they are subject to at least one of them. Furthermore, Collier is not content to just describe the problem; he offers several courses of action that can deal with them. At least one of them, military interventions, has been largely discredited lately in the eyes of the public and policy wonks alike. However, if we are sincere and serious about helping the poorest in this world, we need to keep the military option open.

All in all, this is a wonderful book that is both data-driven and engaging. Even if you have not followed the issues surrounding global poverty in the past, this book may induce you to get engaged in thinking about it more actively and seriously.

For development professionals and those who care deeply about making aid work more effectively, this is an absolute must read. It confirms the need for agencies to focus on the long - run and to recognize and intervene quickly to take advantage of changing political landscapes. For those of us who have seen aid fail some many times, it provides us with a sound reminder that good program design is only part of the solution. We also need to change the mindsets of our own policy makers within the World Bank and the other large donors who are the decision makers on where aid flows. This book is extremely well - written and well supported with data. It is no doubt the best book I've read in the development aid genre.

This is a very interesting book when the author focuses on the findings of his own research. That said, it is often quite annoying to read when he feels the need to go on about how remarkable his work is while beating up on various positions he attributes to the left and characterizes very simplistically. At that point he sounds self righteous. His research shows that some of the left's perspectives on issues like trade are often short sighted but that doesn't make everything that is said by development NGOs the nonsense he claims it to be. Like many economists, his "lets look at the data" attitude just makes him sound holier than though. A less polemical tone, a bit of humility about what his research does, and does not show would go a long way.It does not show that all the criticisms of free trade are wrong, for example, it merely shows they need to be more careful. When he provides statistics he is convincing, but when he just offers ad hominem attacks and nasty asides, he is much less so. As long as you keep an eye out for Professor Collier's own biases and pet ideas, you may find this a stimulating balance to anti-globalization arguments.